Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well it goes down again , but not great. It would be interesting to put this against the ones same time tomorrow - I'm guessing they will be much better.

[phil nw.]

Quite a few recent posts just pushing the boundaries of proper discussion and in the odd case rather unfriendly.

We are trying to let the thread flow but please respect each other's views and avoid cluttering the thread with off topic stuff.If anyone has problems with someone's post please either report it or pm them.

Ok then onwards we go.

[Barry12]

Starting to look like the wheels are now coming of the Northern blocking wagon, the point of interest is being pushed back yet again which is unfortunate. I'm starting to think we will have a typical December fare.

 

[bluearmy]

One thing this game has taught me over the years is to pay little or no attention to the CFS, whatever output it happens to be churning out. the appearance of CFS charts on here is inversely proportional to the cold nuance of the ops. 

the next 46 dayer is due out around the same time that the eps ought to begin to show the euro high anomolys draining away. So we see if the 46 repeats the timing in tandem to whether the eps are in rough agreement. current eps show no real change to previous runs with split vortex (tonight the Canadian segment is the larger one) and the troughs and cold remaining where they have been forecast to be. 

I suspect matt's concern could be in respect of the strat vortex beginning to drift towards the pole and strengthening (maybe some solar concerns).  Glosea has been the best predictor of strat activity over the past few years and if that continues to see trop blocking to our ne and a weakish strat vortex for the next few weeks then that's good enough for me. 

anyway, we have beeen promised little of deep cold potential for the next week or so and that looks like verifying. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This signal the ops are showing for HP to sink come around the 8th....take note.  For me not really a sinker but a squashing / flattening as we see the 1st period of real interest this winter.  Very Strong lunar and solar period approaching come 10-14 Dec.  Displaced PV of main interest here not HP.  Very deep LP/trough to crash across north U.K with pM air to flood south bringing severe weather....further north the stronger the hit.  How far south it extends depends on the strength of northward ridge in Atlantic and angle of attack.  Gale to severe gale force NW'ly winds possibly northerly.  Rond one

 

BFTP

[Weather Observer]

Booked my ticket on the trans Siberian express. Turn up at the station and find a notice "next train in 10 days time",or it was when I started typing. Was going to look at some golden oldie charts to entertain myself.

Then I remembered there had been a very similar spell to the current cold one in 1962. The first week of December saw temps down to -11c in some parts of the south, for some the coldest night of the whole month. It was also the last smog as most of us still had coal fires. And thanks to Stewfox for the info on house prices then.Anyway it became milder with westerlies after that, but around the 22nd something happened which changed my life, I became a fanatical weather observer! The chart shows the coldest day in that spell. Not saying anything just a bit of fun as we wait

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Well it goes down again , but not great. It would be interesting to put this against the ones same time tomorrow - I'm guessing they will be much better.

The London ones might show an even sharper drop off than those though at D14-15 - just a theory but we will see.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Well it goes down again , but not great. It would be interesting to put this against the ones same time tomorrow - I'm guessing they will be much better.

The precip spikes show a big change from the 00hrs and that ties in with the high sinking away. At this point its very unlikely the high is going to retrogress so I think we're going to have to go to milder before anything more interesting pops up.

[MattH]

FYI, to answer a few of the questions;

1) The science behind the winter forecast is sound, it really is. That's the beauty of being able to produce something like that kind of forecast wth people like Tony who can spot and see the 'longer term'. My 'bread and butter' is shorter term operational forecasting, that's my job, so firstly what I said has no detriment to the winter forecast as a whole no matter what anyone says. As we have said all along it really was a 'difficult' one to produce despite some clear signs and signals. 

2) What "worries" me is the disconnect between the likes of the EC monthly output and the likes of the GFS and EC ENS now. The clusters have been flitting back and forth of late which doesn't help but when you try and look for some consistency within the ENS and the output from the EC32 the marked blocking signals from the EC monthly aren't being supported by the ENS which take us towards mid-Dec. 

The weather can make a fool of us all at times and whilst the uncertainty over the long term does remain, I was simply stating my own thoughts on the situation based on the latest data and my experiences and, again, that is towards a heightened risk of this northern blocking regime that has been talked about not really coming off now, or not to the extent some may think or hope for to reproduce 'proper' winter synoptics  

Time will tell...

Regards to all. 

[January Snowstorm]

I suppose Nick sums up the situation well really. There simply isn't a way to forecast the weather beyond about ten days. Yes blocking signals/patterns are a very useful tool and the general trend was for a v different November to last year. 100% correct!

However because our shores are a small pawn in a big world europe can get a bitter cold spell while we bask in a southerly.

Longe range forecasts are thankless tasks.....much work goes into them and there's almost a demand for them to be right.

One must ask the question as to whether or not we have made progress in forecasting the weather beyond about a week. I have to say in 40 years of watching weather my opinion is most definitely not. Is this a failure.....of course not just one of the great mysteries of life

[tinybill]

1 hour ago, Grimers said:

Yes, I've just been looking at the GFS, ECMWF and UKMO and I'm struggling to see any sign of snowy conditions. However, the GEFS seems to be the outlier this time round.

mind  you  f1 sugg  some about dec  15  time  at  the  moment  on the gfs

 

Edited November 30, 2016 by tinybill

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This signal the ops are showing for HP to sink come around the 8th....take note.  For me not really a sinker but a squashing / flattening as we see the 1st period of real interest this winter.  Very Strong lunar and solar period approaching come 10-14 Dec.  Displaced PV of main interest here not HP.  Very deep LP/trough to crash across north U.K with pM air to flood south bringing severe weather....further north the stronger the hit.  How far south it extends depends on the strength of northward ridge in Atlantic and angle of attack.  Gale to severe gale force NW'ly winds possibly northerly.  Round one

 

BFTP

Hi Fred,

That sounds like you are not agreeing with the met office blocked anticyclonic second half of december then ?

[Sweatyman]

13 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

Starting to look like the wheels are now coming of the Northern blocking wagon, the point of interest is being pushed back yet again which is unfortunate. I'm starting to think we will have a typical December fare.

 

Let's face it, it'll be Jan then Feb then March and then we will give up finally lol

[Grimers]

29 minutes ago, IDO said:

I am no killjoy but when you see CFS rolling out horror charts like these for Winter you know it may be a long winter where the word "potential" will be a byword for disappointment:

DecJANFEB

That's March not February.

Edited November 30, 2016 by Grimers

[Nick L]

26 minutes ago, IDO said:

I am no killjoy but when you see CFS rolling out horror charts like these for Winter you know it may be a long winter where the word "potential" will be a byword for disappointment:

DecJANFEB

A misleading post. Means at that range will always tend to cancel out to climatological norms. You need to post the anomalies.

[Mcburns]

Completely bewildered as a novice model watcher. Models not showing cold and all of a sudden they are completely reliable and infallible?

 

[weatherguy]

Late to the party, somewhat surprised to see such negativity around.  Yes, I know it's frustrating how any promise seems to be stuck in the far reaches of FI, but we can only really comment on what the models are showing...And what they're showing is, dare I say it, potential.

+288 GFS 12z for example, we actually have a PV that looks like it went through 12 rounds of rope-a-dope with Mohammed Ali, with a GH and Pacific Ridge being on the cusp of connecting.  Pretty dreamy synoptics.

Yes it's FI and, given the recent trends, unlikely to come to fruition at the posited timeframe, but there's certainly no need for the prozac! 

18 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

Starting to look like the wheels are now coming of the Northern blocking wagon, the point of interest is being pushed back yet again which is unfortunate. I'm starting to think we will have a typical December fare.

Looks a pretty good chart tbh, PV pretty much split, plenty of cold to tap into from the east, enough energy to the west to allow undercutting at some point but not a super-canadian vortex to wipe the floor with any fledging MLB to the west. 

Edited November 30, 2016 by weatherguy

[Daniel*]

I don't see why things can flip again.. Although this is narrowing - a sense of realism is needed. Early Dec is not looking what most of us want, our eyes will have divert to mid Dec onwards for snow, although this is not something new. I think we should cut out the personal chit chat, and the cliches of a 62/63 winter, not one winter can be directly compared with a other, what good does that do? We've had rather good northern hemisphere profile since October - notwithstanding this things haven't aligned to 'deep' cold for UK, sometimes that's just what happens, we need to seize the moment , so yes tomorrow starts meteorological winter. I do have an incline by Jan the PV will be menacing. In spite of this the state of PV is not make or break. I wouldn't put so much weight on certain individuals as great as they are, it's not them that control what happens, there is no weather oracle unfortunately. While they can try pave some sort of logical route of travel - but be warned it's riddled with all sorts of things. I still remain optimistic and I hope you are too.   

I hope the pub does not descend into a drunken brawl! 

Let's see what happens in the next 12 hours

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Grimers said:

That's March not February.

Its not (I know it says it) - this is March.

Edited November 30, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

Right , pub run my order is Stella please, along with a bunch of 20 Stella's to go with it. Keep the faith. We need to see if the WAA coming from the Alaskan side can link with that from NE Canada around 240-288 ish - and although I'll be asleep a better set of FI ENS.

And I know Stella is Stellar. 

Edited November 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[Grimers]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its not (I know it says it) - this is March.

Yes, just spotted it, thanks.

[Grimers]

@Changing Skies, well said. I think some need a sense of realism instead of fretting over different model/runs. Overall, the models are showing a cooler than average Winter. Also, since models were invented, there will be big differences between them especially in FI and when there's the potential of cold conditions.

Edited November 30, 2016 by Grimers

[Banbury]

I'm not too concerned about the lack of cracking chart s...just yet . Plenty of time for everything to get into place, please don't hang your hat on a certain date for blocking to get set up in our favour . The comment has been mid month but that doesn't mean on December 15th hey presto........blocking has been forecast for December but it will always be give or take several days .

 

What will be interesting is if the super models have got it totally wrong and it ends up zonal, 'if' and its a BIG 'if' , that is the case then it goes to show that anything after 5-7 days really is an educated guess

[snowbunting]

Wow the 12Z GFS really pulled a stunner of a run in Fl territory. With a Greenie high building bringing a Nly blast. Did have a look at the ECM and its looks like it may very well marry up!  Exciting chart watching about to commence.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Grimers said:

Yes, just spotted it, thanks.

Reason I checked is I thought that PV looked too fierce and cold to be March.