Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

 

Today it dipped to -2.5 here with a maximum of just 2.3 reached in early afternoon. I for one wouldn"t mind a period of slighter milder temperatures(i work outside for a living so it would be nice to feel my feet again!!) so save a few bob on the heating bills for a short while as i think the heating will be on overtime later on this month.. 

We had clear skies and a max of 10C down here. Sidney was out cavorting and warming his nuts.

[A.J]

31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well at least the ECM has attempted to flatten the Euro high and its overall NH pattern is better than this morning but overall not much to shout about upto T240hrs.

Its a shame events within T144hrs conspire to deliver the worst possible outcome from what on paper was a decent looking set up. Barring some miracle of Biblical proportions I think we're going to see a period of milder conditions as the Euro high sinks and then have to hope that the jet can be forced far enough south to remove the high.

yes, it is looking that way in the medium term, but from what I've understood (providing I've understood correctly) is that according to the pro forecasters who post on here,  isn't this all part of the grand plan to get to where most of us want to be....i.e with a much better chance of deep cold and snow longer term? 

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Happy Christmas see you next year! lmao If you want sanity you've come to the wrong place. I'm afraid Weir that the wonder of this place is that we're not sane, are obsessed with snow, can't sleep if snow is forecast. In my case 49 going on 9. I thought I'd grow out of this snow obsession but absolutely no sign of that. Most people think I'm unhinged and .....

You said it, absolutely barking mad  

[Hotspur62]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

We had clear skies and a max of 10C down here. Sidney was out cavorting and warming his nuts.

Sidney may well need the sun lotion next week then lol!!(Sorry Mods couldnt resist)

Seriously i think it will be just plain seasonal for early/mid part of next week but if we get some clear nights still potential for some frost but good workable weather during daylight hours.

[Methuselah]

Right then, from tomorrow it's winter proper - 90+ days in which we can all whinge about the lack of snow??

[Nick Phillips]

13 hours ago, ryanoroo said:

Just a quick question... Do the models factor in the recent eruption of popocatepetl in Mexico? as I remember reading that volcanic eruptions can cause a shift in winter weather somehow... or is this something that I made up???... sorry if off topic but if its something the models don't see/factor in then it could lead to a surprise further down the line.

Hi ryanoroo too, I think it would depend on the size of the eruption and it's latitude.

[Singularity]

What we were trying for was either the generally more difficult to pull off retreogression of a long-standing mid-latitude block over the UK to our NW/N or the equally tricky undercut from the Atlantic (how many have we seen fail over the years?). Model consensus on the MLB staying put through most of next week was strong enough this morning to keep that option alive.

Now, it's just about hanging on as some ensemble interest.

What we're going for instead is the more reliable pull west of a ridge from Europe as the jet dives into W. Eurasia. GFS has a good go in the 10-14 day range but that's sooner than professional guidance indicates to expect such developments, so the ECM 12z, which adds another step to the process via an extra low development on the base of the mid-Atlantic trough, is not that surprising.

Now don't get me wrong - I'm saddened at the prospect of missing out on an extended run of dry days with inversion potential... but this is a separate matter entirely from the prospects mid-Dec onward. Euro Highs don't have to be slugs!

I was more alarmed by the out of kilter polar profiles this morning and lack of split vortex signal, so in that regard the 12z runs are a relief; the setup by day 10 is far better going forward for getting blocking in the right place early in the period of great potential.

Messages like this are increasingly frequent on here yet still they don't seem to have affected the approach of a few on here (many of you have got the message!). So this is the last time I'll put it across for now - I'll just comment on interesting features to model runs in the usual sort of manner. I hope many of you will aim to continue to do or return to doing the same (as well as the handy summaries from the usual contributors of course). I have seen how when that happens, this forum can really shine 

I reckon it's reasonable enough to expect some decent 10-16 day output (at least intermittently) from GFS by the start of next week. Fingers crossed as the mood on here could do with some eye candy .

Edited November 30, 2016 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

I'm trying to bring some cheer to snow lovers, the extended Gefs 12z shows some wintry runs and some close to exciting possibilities!

[Grimers]

It's looking pretty chilly folks!

 

Edited November 30, 2016 by Grimers

[Grimers]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I'm trying to bring some cheer to snow lovers, the extended Gefs 12z shows some wintry runs and some close to exciting possibilities!

Yes, I've just been looking at the GFS, ECMWF and UKMO and I'm struggling to see any sign of snowy conditions. However, the GEFS seems to be the outlier this time round.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

bottom one my favourite Frosty! Atlantic v cold battle, can create good snow

[Ali1977]

Knowing what we know from the likes of Ian F , I fail to see how anyone can be dissapointed with the look of the NH at day 10 on the ECM, no snow forecast in the next 10 days but the potential is clearly there with the lack of PV etc...stay cool and fingers crossed by the weekend things start looking up. 

[Grimers]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Knowing what we know from the likes of Ian F , I fail to see how anyone can be dissapointed with the look of the NH at day 10 on the ECM, no snow forecast in the next 10 days but the potential is clearly there with the lack of PV etc...stay cool and fingers crossed by the weekend things start looking up. 

Agreed, though I'm concerned about lows sinking to the E of the UK giving snow to Scotland but not necessarily anywhere else.

GFS starts cold but turns milder later, still just about in FI but it could come to frutition... I hope not.

     

Edited November 30, 2016 by Grimers

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Knowing what we know from the likes of Ian F , I fail to see how anyone can be dissapointed with the look of the NH at day 10 on the ECM, no snow forecast in the next 10 days but the potential is clearly there with the lack of PV etc...stay cool and fingers crossed by the weekend things start looking up. 

That is precisely why I am interested in the far-reaches of the GFS...If the Glosea is right, interesting things ought to be showing in the outer reaches of the GFS?

Then again, then GFS might be cr*p?

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Messages like this are increasingly frequent on here yet still they don't seem to sink in. So this is the last time I'll bother putting it across - I'll just comment on interesting features to model runs in the usual sort of manner. I hope many of you will aim to do the same (as well as the handy summaries from the usual contributors of course).

I

That's one of the most patronizing comments that I've seen for quite a while.

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That is precisely why I am interested in the far-reaches of the GFS...If the Glosea is right, interesting things ought to be showing in the outer reaches of the GFS?

Then again, then GFS might be cr*p?

3rd best model so can't be total crap. Or perhaps people expect too much from T384. There's a reason why model scores don't go beyond day 6 me thinks.

[MattH]

The 12Z EC ENS are also supportive of the rather quicker arrival of a SW'ly from next Tue/Wed and whilst these can change as quickly as DET models there is a trend towards the high sinking towards the SE into the near continent within a week or so. 

As I've said before, in passing, the approach to the middle of Dec could well end up becoming a 'make or break' period in terms of how the remainder of Dec, or a large portion of it, ends up progressing. Experience has shown me that Dec is a 'long month' not just because it's 31 days!, I think you know what I mean.

However, here comes the negative thoughts as things stand; Depending on how model guidance (plus other variables) progress within the next week or so I am beginning to lean towards a possible failure in terms of northern blocking becoming dominant. Clearly a lot of the info for a blocked Dec was discussed within the Winter Forecast but this is a quickly evolving situation now and my optimism for the likes of the EC Monthly et al, to come to fruition are, overall, waning now and I think the possibility of something far more 'typical' for a Dec month is gaining some weight, but we shall see.

As ever time will tell but the next 7 to 10 days worth of model data will be crucial to determining how the first third of our winter will likely/possibly pan out. 

Regards. Matt

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That is precisely why I am interested in the far-reaches of the GFS...If the Glosea is right, interesting things ought to be showing in the outer reaches of the GFS?

Then again, then GFS might be cr*p?

GFS FI as we know will often be way off the mark so not seeing them yet doesn't mean it won't happen - you may however in the next few days start seeing them trend down as they have been really, a few blips in this is always likely of course. 

Matts post above however - this isn't what I hoped to read!! Hopefully if Ian pops a post in slightly more positive !!

Edited November 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[Paul_1978]

Reverse psychology @MattHugo - Love it ;-)

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

3rd best model so can't be total crap. Or perhaps people expect too much from T384. There's a reason why model scores don't go beyond day 6 me thinks.

The main reason I'm looking at T+384 hours is because it's the pivotal mid December period..very soon the gfs will be in Christmas range, exciting stuff!

[claret047]

Good Evening everyone,

I rarely write on this thread, although I read it avidly every day. My reluctance to write is my lack of detailed knowledge to make a contribution that adds much to the discussion. Gradually I am becoming a bit more confident and so here goes how I see the next few weeks going. The charts that have been posted  appear to show that the cold spell we are experiencing will gradually be replaced by somewhat less cold conditions for the next couple of days, although the most southern counties might still have a moderate frost overnight. The slightly warmer weather will be replaced in the south over the weekend by cold very dry air from the continent, whilst the north and northwest will be milder and a bit more unsettled. The weather will then remain much the same for much of the following week, followed by a much milder blip with possibly unsettled stormy weather, although there is some uncertainty with this as the track of a depression that is yet to form is not yet determined.

As far as the further outlook is concerned beyond that point I put my faith in the postings of Tamara, GP and Steve Murr, combined with the enthusiasm of Karl (Frosty) and believe that the signs are there with the displacement of the PV, heights to the northwest and possibly to the northeast could well give us the latter stages of December and January to remember.

Such is my faith in what I have read by these knowledgeable folk I have this evening visited my local Ladbrokes and placed a £5 bet at 4 to 1 for a White Christmas  at Heathrow Airport.

Many thanks to all who contribute to this thread, which I find totally absorbing inspite of or because of the roller coaster that is our national obsession- the weather.

Kind regards

Dave

[Singularity]

18 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's one of the most patronizing comments that I've seen for quite a while.

Sorry I meant to say to some people! There are many who have got the message 

I've edited my original post to account for that. 

Edited November 30, 2016 by Singularity

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The main reason I'm looking at T+384 hours is because it's the pivotal mid December period..very soon the gfs will be in Christmas range, exciting stuff!

Precisely, Karl...It's also the point that both Iain Fergusson and Matt & Tony have been highighting??

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The main reason I'm looking at T+384 hours is because it's the pivotal mid December period..very soon the gfs will be in Christmas range, exciting stuff!

Well show me a t394 chart that verifies and I'll give you this weeks lottery numbers. Perhaps in 20 years time. At the moment there isn't even a trend there.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Good Evening everyone,

I rarely write on this thread, although I read it avidly every day. My reluctance to write is my lack of detailed knowledge to make a contribution that adds much to the discussion. Gradually I am becoming a bit more confident and so here goes how I see the next few weeks going. The charts that have been posted  appear to show that the cold spell we are experiencing will gradually be replaced by somewhat less cold conditions for the next couple of days, although the most southern counties might still have a moderate frost overnight. The slightly warmer weather will be replaced in the south over the weekend by cold very dry air from the continent, whilst the north and northwest will be milder and a bit more unsettled. The weather will then remain much the same for much of the following week, followed by a much milder blip with possibly unsettled stormy weather, although there is some uncertainty with this as the track of a depression that is yet to form is not yet determined.

As far as the further outlook is concerned beyond that point I put my faith in the postings of Tamara, GP and Steve Murr, combined with the enthusiasm of Karl (Frosty) and believe that the signs are there with the displacement of the PV, heights to the northwest and possibly to the northeast could well give us the latter stages of December and January to remember.

Such is my faith in what I have read by these knowledgeable folk I have this evening visited my local Ladbrokes and placed a £5 bet at 4 to 1 for a White Christmas  at Heathrow Airport.

Many thanks to all who contribute to this thread, which I find totally absorbing inspite of or because of the roller coaster that is our national obsession- the weather.

Kind regards

Dave

Thanks Dave, yes I'm enthusiastic..especially about this winter!

The models show plenty of high pressure and surface cold during the week ahead bringing frost and fog, it may break down for a time, especially further north but then I'm hoping the colder blocked second half of december materializes which appears to still be favoured by the longer range seasonal models.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM ens show a return to milder weather with wind and rain threatening the north and west.

      

Of course open to further amendments over the coming morning and evening suites.

The good new is however that as the milder weather arrives by the 6th/7th then it is likely that the December record for warmth set last year is safe. 

Edited November 30, 2016 by Captain Shortwave