Met office Winter Outlook for December 2016 to February 2017

[Summer Sun]

The Met office has issued a Winter Outlook for December 2016 to February 2017 here is a snippet of what they have said

Quote

 

Latest observations from around the globe and long-range weather prediction systems suggest that the early part of the winter period is more likely than usual to be cold. This implies a heightened risk of wintry weather during December and into January.

Overall, it should be stressed that more normal winter weather, with temperatures ranging from slightly below average to mild, is still marginally more likely. Nevertheless, the risk of cold conditions at the start of winter is now greater than it has been in recent winters. More details of specific weather over the coming month is available in the Met Office 30-day and week-ahead forecasts.

Later in the winter, there appears to be a shift towards less risk of cold conditions. More detail about this period will be available in updates to the Met Office long-range outlook which will be released as winter progresses and our 30-day and week-ahead forecasts will provide advance warning of specific weather events throughout the winter.

 

 

Full forecast here: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/28/winter-outlook-for-december-2016-to-february-2017/

[Barry Reynolds]

Well, the Met Office are still obviously thinking that the 'potential' for cold weather this year is strong. And to be honest it appears to he a blank canvas after the next 10 days or so. Less analyzing the minutiae, more listening to the experts, and the Met Office don't generally jump the gun.

[Paul_1978]

With all this cold weather around, and the potential for it to become colder in the next few weeks, we could do with a bit of precipitation to give us the snow that a lot of us want!

[mountain shadow]

A front loaded Winter as expected, however, colder than normal, does not mean snowier than normal.

[karyo]

I wonder what it is in the second part of winter that gives a signal for a change in the pattern. La Nina often favours a milder/less cold second half but it is very weak this year to give a strong signal.

[damianslaw]

Yes Met office sticking with their prediction of a colder than average first half to winter, trending milder thereafter, the opposite to last year's winter forecast which suggested trending colder later.

We've had quite a few 'front loaded' winters for cold, most notably 1981/82 which had a very cold first half cancelled out by a mild second half. Winter 96/97 also similiar. Winter 01/02 had a cold December and cold start to Jan but very mild thereafter. More recently winter 10/11 saw an exceptionally cold December followed by increasingly milder conditions through Jan, and a very mild Feb. They are though less common than mild starts followed by colder second halves.

Recent conditions and the immediate outlook is sharing similiarities with Nov/Dec 96, Nov/Dec 08 and Nov/Dec 12.

[ArHu3]

I haven't seen plumes like this in a long long time, like February 2013 maybe?

[Summer Sun]

Unless we see a rapid change in the models this month will be bust for the met office forecast

Quote

Latest observations from around the globe and long-range weather prediction systems suggest that the early part of the winter period is more likely than usual to be cold. This implies a heightened risk of wintry weather during December and into January.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

On 28/11/2016 at 11:39, Summer Sun said:

Latest observations from around the globe and long-range weather prediction systems suggest that the early part of the winter period is more likely than usual to be cold. This implies a heightened risk of wintry weather during December and into January.

Overall, it should be stressed that more normal winter weather, with temperatures ranging from slightly below average to mild, is still marginally more likely. Nevertheless, the risk of cold conditions at the start of winter is now greater than it has been in recent winters. More details of specific weather over the coming month is available in the Met Office 30-day and week-ahead forecasts.

Later in the winter, there appears to be a shift towards less risk of cold conditions. More detail about this period will be available in updates to the Met Office long-range outlook which will be released as winter progresses and our 30-day and week-ahead forecasts will provide advance warning of specific weather events throughout the winter.

Full forecast here: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/28/winter-outlook-for-december-2016-to-february-2017/

 

 

2

Coming back to this it's a case of so much promise early on then ultimately a let down once winter arrived

3 days or so before winter the risk of a cold start to winter was high then recent winters only for December to record a CET of 6.0 I think with any cold limited

Overall January was the coldest winter month with a CET of 4.0 putting it 0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

Edited March 1, 2017 by Summer Sun