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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Only just had chance to look at the output this evening and I see the Alaskan ridge and the Canadian vortex are back in the GEFS later period. Oh lordy...............

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    that all the models are awful, must mean we are due for something truly wonderful.  I have never known such a certain time in 12 years of watching on here. Why is it so uncertain, is it a new climatic era, is that why we have so much trouble?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains

    Bring on Spring , this winter is going to go the way of previous winters especially here in the NW of England,I've given up hope of anything remotely winter-like , so all that I can do is say bring on the sun and long warm spring days .

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    Polar Maritime Cold Spell analysis for CSE:

    expected 4 day cold spell by the time pattern was fixed at T+72.

    Thursday - initial flood of cold air blocked by channel system producing rain.

    Friday - light frost, organised area of light/moderate snow in morning, but didn't settle.

    Saturday - light frost, organised area of heavy rain around lunchtime, not forecast at any point within T+72.

    Sunday - double figures and rain now forecast.

    Impact - 1/10.

     

     

     

    Edited by The Enforcer
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    Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
    12 minutes ago, Spurry said:

    Bring on Spring , this winter is going to go the way of previous winters especially here in the NW of England,I've given up hope of anything remotely winter-like , so all that I can do is say bring on the sun and long warm spring days .

    I would say the same as well as love hot weather and cold weather but u know when spring comes it will be easterly wind and 8c. Then the model forum will say if this was January February now it will be heavy snow and 0c.:D

    Edited by pegg24
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    iapenell 6 weather models 0:shok: the models are going to get relegated at this rate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    iapenell 6 weather models 0:shok: the models are going to get relegated at this rate.

    To be fair no models have shown any HLB, at least not the ops in the reliable time frame. It's turning into a frustrating winter if your a lover of snow & cold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    Just now, shotski said:

    To be fair no models have shown any HLB, at least not the ops in the reliable time frame. It's turning into a frustrating winter if your a lover of snow & cold. 

    Which iapenell did say would be the case, in his winter forecast:oops:Only the OFI has stopped it from being a complete dud.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    Which iapenell did say would be the case, in his winter forecast:oops:Only the OFI has stopped it from being a complete dud.

    Mmmmm didn't he mention Zonal dominated :oops:

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    2 minutes ago, shotski said:

    Mmmmm didn't he mention Zonal dominated :oops:

    lol yes he did, cocked that bit up,:oops:

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    Just now, lassie23 said:

    lol yes he did, cocked that bit up,:oops:

    Tbh I've been following his posts of late and he talks a lot of sense, keeps it simple and to the point. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    Just now, shotski said:

    Tbh I've been following his posts of late and he talks a lot of sense, keeps it simple and to the point. 

    As you know i follow his posts too, but the OFI trumped him lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    2 minutes ago, shotski said:

    Mmmmm didn't he mention Zonal dominated :oops:

    Yes unless I am mistaken ( aplologies if wrong ) I seem to remember his first winter forecast said it would be an Atlantic dominated winter . I stand corrected if proved otherwise . I am certainly not criticising here as Ian has a vast better understanding than me when it comes to forecasting and I read lots of updates including Ian's which I learn from. How he stays out the mod thread I don't know . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

    As you know i follow his posts too, but the OFI trumped him lol

    What's the OFI ? It's where I'm going in a minute to get some peroni. 

    Seriously, what is it ?

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    Just now, shotski said:

    What's the OFI ? It's where I'm going in a minute to get some peroni. 

    Seriously, what is it ?

    I made it up lol, if you get fog in october, you get snow in the winter:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    I made it up lol, if you get fog in october, you get snow in the winter:shok:

    Oh and there was me assuming it was the Olfactory Function Index :shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    12 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Oh and there was me assuming it was the Olfactory Function Index :shok:

    lol nothing as complex as that

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Another Day-10 wild weather goose chase seems to have been started this eve after GFS 18z. One day the NW soothsayers will call it correctly.

    And before anyone comments or PMs me - you're correct i dont offer this forum much in terms of weather technical opinions. 

    These Atlantic, Gulf Stream-affected Isles make any medium to long range weather forecasting futile for the UK. And that fact will always underpin my views re UK weather for any 10-day plus period ahead.

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Location: Runcorn

    There's a debate in the MOD thread about whether or not the 18z solution is feasible, well in my experience you can pretty dismiss any solution that hints at heights to the NW out of hand, even if future runs do go with something like that you just know something will pop up to derail it, the only time that wasn't the case in more recent memory was in the 09/10 and 10/11 winters which probably happened in an alternate universe.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    9 minutes ago, knocker said:

    The GFS sees January out with brutal warmth

    gfs_t2maf_slp_uk2_65.png

    How is mild weather considered 'brutal'?

    Unless we're talking 40c+ of course.

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