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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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1 hour ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Don't worry come March, we will have more easterlies than we know what to do with, just when the rest of Europe taste the first signs of Summer.

Oh yes 7 and 8c in April and May. We May even get 15c in July and like you say Italy Greece be 35 to 40 then.

Edited by pegg24
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In the grand scheme of things never has there been so much self indulgent woe betiding p**h and nonsense as n the recent model thread.

I do understand personal desire, but quite honestly it is pitiful how otherwise intelligent grown men become petulant and childish oafs when their desire is not reflected by a mathematical model 

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17 minutes ago, GrrClark said:

In the grand scheme of things never has there been so much self indulgent woe betiding p**h and nonsense as n the recent model thread.

I do understand personal desire, but quite honestly it is pitiful how otherwise intelligent grown men become petulant and childish oafs when their desire is not reflected by a mathematical model 

It will change next week anyway.  I have no problems with people putting their views on there it can go one way or another.  Lol but it's only like you say a computer it will do what it wants.

Edited by pegg24
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1 hour ago, knocker said:

:shok: Suffering succotash......the potential doesn't bear thinking about

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

Now stop it Sidney

980x.jpg

 

i am really starting to dislike sydney and his cousin living on the Dutch coast, how is it possible we miss out on every single one of the major cold spells this winter, cold east, north, south, south east and south west but never here. Sometimes these spells just stop short 50 or 60 km from me

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Nowt to do with Sidney but the pattern changes underway upstream with knock on effects downstream. The eastern Pacific trough shoots a lobe across the southern states with an intense ridge NE America and a trough in the western Atlantic. Coupled with the increasing influence of the Russian vortex this equates to a declining influence of HP over the UK and the upper low to the SSE and portends a trough to the west and a zonal regime.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.png

Edited by knocker
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15 hours ago, GrrClark said:

In the grand scheme of things never has there been so much self indulgent woe betiding p**h and nonsense as n the recent model thread.

I do understand personal desire, but quite honestly it is pitiful how otherwise intelligent grown men become petulant and childish oafs when their desire is not reflected by a mathematical model 

Have you had snow yet?

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Guess who's back......

gfsnh-12-384.png

Back again.

The slug is back, the UK's friend.

The slug is back, the slug is back, the slug is back!!!

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

Guess who's back......

gfsnh-12-384.png

Back again.

The slug is back, the UK's friend.

The slug is back, the slug is back, the slug is back!!!

It's back far earlier than that.

Starts at 72
UKMOPEU12_72_1.png UKMOPEU12_96_1.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Still there at T+144

Cold won't be crossing the channel on that. Even the better looking GFS struggles with several above freezing night while the whole of France and most of Iberia freezes hard. Gem agrees, apparently it's also performed well for Europe this winter so no surprises there.

It really is astonishingly dire how things have gone compared to forecast just beyond 'reliable', with agreement on a very cold continental flow the latest fail.

The northwesterly gave some wintry showers one evening and a single not very cold max of 6.1C. A little snow on the moors, 2015/16 and 2014/15 had more.

They say it's far better than looking at strong PV and Atlantic Jet, but with most of the conditions so far, we might as well have had that.

Sorry, not interested in the next forlorn hope of a Strat warming or the charts looking something like Feb 1991, it may get a lot of likes but it doesn't make it likely to happen.

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2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Have you had snow yet?

A scant covering is all.

Not sure how that is relative to my post of last night unless of course that is some sort of justification for people being petulant.

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How many times have we seen a chart like this one during this winter. The UK missing out as central and Eastern Europe get the deep cold. On the plus side this set up would more than likely bring some very low minimum temperatures to central england, -10 quite possible I would have thought. image.jpg

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37 minutes ago, GrrClark said:

A scant covering is all.

Not sure how that is relative to my post of last night unless of course that is some sort of justification for people being petulant.

We had a scattering of something, not sure if it was snow or icing suger, after all the build up , pretty pathetic really, not overly cold either, there again going by the female weather presenter s  enthusiastic trumpeting of 10 degrees for here tomorrow you would think that we had just emerged from a 47 winter:wallbash: 

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2 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

We had a scattering of something, not sure if it was snow or icing suger, after all the build up , pretty pathetic really, not overly cold either, there again going by the female weather presenter s  enthusiastic trumpeting of 10 degrees for here tomorrow you would think that we had just emerged from a 47 winter:wallbash: 

shame, my location is due 2 days of non stop rain, or I wouldn't mind if it's mild, heard presenters like Eno Equator and Di 0xberry are worse

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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

shame, my location is due 2 days of non stop rain, or I wouldn't mind if it's mild, heard presenters like Eno Equator and Di 0xberry are worse

Haha they sure are. One is the mildest ramper you could ever think of and the other, well basically doesn't have a clue.

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Well after some snow cover here over the last couple of days it's not a great outlook going forward if you want a decent dumping of snow and proper cold. 

Half way through meteorological winter - before we know it we will be at the end of Feb. Tick tock. No doubt March will deliver a decent dumping of snow, it usually does here.

However I am going to build one of these tomorrow, since the end of 2013 they have been a common sight.

wp-1450963743499.jpg

 

 

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Yikes!...poor GFS 12z now followed by an even worse ECM 12z and as mentioned over on the model thread we could be looking into February now for any real cold (as basically we have been doing since December 1st).

It only seems a few days ago there was excitement over next weeks cold with severe frosts and some wintry showers in the south east, we're now looking at a SSW event in the straw clutching department after viewing constantly disappointing models, I suppose at least we've seen some white stuff fall in this location and generally other places in the south east but that really isn't saying a lot.

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