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This is wrong on so many levels...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    A quick word about the EPS this evening. In the 6-10 range we have twin vortex Siberia/Franz Joseph Land, very strong ridge NE N. America, ridging over the UK with some strong positive anomalies and the intense upper low to the SSE over the Mediterranean. Thus quite an amplified pattern. The detail regarding temperature is dependent on the precise position of the surface high which at the moment is looking to be over the UK before sliding SW. So the outlook for the period would be dry with temps a little below average but subject to quite large diurnal  swings. In the later period it's looking like the intensification of the Franz Joseph vortex, the eradication of the ridge over the UK to be replaced by a trough to the west and a zonal upper flow.

    ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    well thats winter been and gone, with nothing but rain in the forecast for the foreseable, temps between 5 and 8c, the vibe is not good in the model thread currently and all going the shape of the pear, lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham


    3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:




    Did we? i remember the bleak snow free years of 1997-2009..they were shocking and the very mild snow less winters 1988-91..its not unusual for the UK to go 4 or 5 winters with no snow...and never has been..anyway if there was lots of snow each year like here in Canada you soon get bored of it as it becomes the norm.






    As you come from Chelmsford (just up the road from me) that period you mentioned wasn't as bad as the last 3 winters, we did have small/short snow events - Post Xmas 2000, a day or so late January 2001, a couple of days in both January 2002 and 2003, the thundersnow event of late January 2004 which brought about 3", post xmas 2005 and a day in early'ish Feb 2007. I keep records in the winter, that period 1997-2009 was not good for 'real' cold but there were brief events lasting between a day and up to 3/4 days with snow.


    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    UK high returns with a vengeance.. absolutely fine by me. 

    tempresult_mhq4.gif

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

    People once again taking as gospel model output that is too far ahead to be of any real benefit. Whether it's "good" or "bad" they take it as fact.

    Show them a hole in the ground with a sign saying "Trap" and they'd still fall down it .....

    Edited by Buzz
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Don't think we are going to see a deep cold  easterly now ,and  I F tweet of sudden flip to much milder weather later in period is sure to happen,always does if it's showing mild outcome ,what a rubbish climate the UK is for cold snowy winters,always has been,always will be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    A quick look at the latest from the EC46 this morning and it's not a pretty sight. The 1st Feb. chart has the vortex back over Canada and strong negative anomalies over a zonal Atlantic. About the only places below average temps are NE America and the Atlantic. The approaching quite slack period (pressure and wind) might be quite welcome albeit a trifle cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

    Once again, we enter another period of 'uncertainty'!

    Looking at model output for 10 days+ for anything exciting which never seems to verify.

    The deep cold pool over Europe and W Russia is now dispersing and temperatures are gradually rising.

    So, even if we do get an Easterly flow, not much in the way of very cold air to tap into.

    It's looking more and more like this winter will be remembered as the winter of fails!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    21 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Once again, we enter another period of 'uncertainty'!

    Looking at model output for 10 days+ for anything exciting which never seems to verify.

    The deep cold pool over Europe and W Russia is now dispersing and temperatures are gradually rising.

    So, even if we do get an Easterly flow, not much in the way of very cold air to tap into.

    It's looking more and more like this winter will be remembered as the winter of fails!

    Erm, looks pretty damn cold in Europe to me for at least the next 10 days.......

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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

    To everyone feeling gloomy today.. all I can see on the models is bags and bags of potential within the 7 day time frame. Compared to last year, I'd rather be looking at lots of potential rather than lots of Atlantic weather.  :drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The vortex over Franz Joseph continues to spread it's wings and very impressive cold trough/warm ridge combo upstream as pattern changes continue.

    ecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_11.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    40 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    Erm, looks pretty damn cold in Europe to me for at least the next 10 days.......

    Gone are the -25c/-30c temps!

    These are the temperatures needed to draw air as cold as -5c into the UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Gone are the -25c/-30c temps!

    These are the temperatures needed to draw air as cold as -5c into the UK

    Maybe we need a model and weather fabrication thread as well. This goes a little far from banter :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

    I am starting to have thoughts of a little German Steve Murr rubbing his hands together and sayin "See i told you.........If we can get that UK block in then it will keep returning for the rest of winter" (feel free to use a German accent).

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    33 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    Maybe we need a model and weather fabrication thread as well. This goes a little far from banter :-)

    That would be brilliant jvenge

    I'll take this please!

    30 years ago today!

    Jan 1987 850 Hpa.gif

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    31 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

    I am starting to have thoughts of a little German Steve Murr rubbing his hands together and sayin "See i told you.........If we can get that UK block in then it will keep returning for the rest of winter" (feel free to use a German accent).

    Exzellent mein guter Mann

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    19 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    Did we? i remember the bleak snow free years of 1997-2009..they were shocking and the very mild snow less winters 1988-91..its not unusual for the UK to go 4 or 5 winters with no snow...and never has been..anyway if there was lots of snow each year like here in Canada you soon get bored of it as it becomes the norm.

    The "worst" winters UK h\as experienced, in terms of the fewest number of days in Dec, Jan and Feb where the Min CET has hit zero or below, have been  1989/90 (7) 1924/25 (7) and 1883/84 (8).

    So we can moan about poor winters, but the worst one (in the terms described) belongs to the Victorians! :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Those wanting an easterly, wait until Feb, the latest CFS Operational has this nailed;

    cfsnh-0-978.png

    cfsnh-2-948.png

    Now that's a decent easterly, not the draft we are forecast next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    after todays winds metoffice have southerly winds from sunday through till atleast thursday, nothing overly cold, temps upto 7c, no night time frosts, so certainly looking like the end of this chilly spell

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Copying a tweet into the model discussion thread should not be allowed. You can't have a discussion with someone if their not in the room. We are not allowed to discuss meto updates as they have a separate thread as should copies of tweets etc. I would welcome IF into the thread but if he chooses not to that is up to him. If I want to follow him on twitter I can.

    Edited by That ECM
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