Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Frank Trough]

I know recently we've seen quite a lot of comment on the longer range forecasts for this winter not quite delivering what many were hoping for (yet?!).

While I was out running I was trying to think (just from memory) which notable periods/patterns of recent times were really well forecast in advance (and as I say, it's just from my memory so it won't be accurate or entirely inclusive).

So far I have:

1) December 2010 - I'm pretty sure GP nailed this well in advance and other seasonal forecasts also picked up on it. It was also modelled well from well out in FI to verfification

2). Spring 2013 - the notable cold. I'm pretty sure I remember reading input on here that pointed to a cold spring and "southerly tracking lows" which I remember at the time dismissing as probably being just cold and wet for my neck of the woods....how wrong was that! -13 uppers in march! #

3). July 2013 - I've nothing to really back this up other than I quite sure the CFS monthlies were convinced about a good july for a while leading up to it

4) January/February 2014 - I have a feeling the wet and windy westerlies were well forecast for this period but again I can't think why exactly I think that.

 

I must have missed loads but these really stick out in my mind.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Certain kind of fool

[Nouska]

29 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

+12 - +13C anomalies - would surface temperatures be anything like as anomalously high, I wonder?

An atmosphere cross section (+186 hours) for southern Ireland, where T850 temperature anomalies are greatest.

As there is no change from 850 to surface, a bit above seasonal norms perhaps.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/coupes_gfs.php

 

 

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

Reality is, since March2013 there has been no real snow cover Midlands South

February 3rd 2015.

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

February 3rd 2015.

You definitely got lucky there...

well I know in London and the SE it's almost 4 years exact since the last proper snowfall with snow cover....quite abysmal. How I yearn for some of the white stuff.

 in recent times it feels so far away. I'm confident it will change if not this winter, the next, westerly QBO being our nemesis. 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Changing Skies

[lassie23]

To cheer up those who like snow and sub zero  temperatures, from 2020 the UK will have a series of brutal winters where -20c will not be unusual, it will be like some of the winters of the early 1980's.  Solar activity and other factors will all lead to this cluster of freezing winters

[jvenge]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

+12 - +13C anomalies - would surface temperatures be anything like as anomalously high, I wonder?

Not so bad, but it will be mild for the time of year if the output is to be believed, which is saying a lot at T186.

[Carl46Wrexham]

15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

To cheer up those who like snow and sub zero  temperatures, from 2020 the UK will have a series of brutal winters where -20c will not be unusual, it will be like some of the winters of the early 1980's.  Solar activity and other factors will all lead to this cluster of freezing winters

Hello James Madden 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Carl46Wrexham

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Hello James Madden 

 

lol i've been recognized, better go back to the Daily Express

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Nouska said:

An atmosphere cross section (+186 hours) for southern Ireland, where T850 temperature anomalies are greatest.

As there is no change from 850 to surface, a bit above seasonal norms perhaps.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/coupes_gfs.php

 

 

Indeed Nouska it's the same old story of the airmass structure in an anticyclone. Even today illustrates it very well if you look at the 12z Camborne sounding and the cold boundary layer.. A surface temp of +4C and the 850mb and 700mb respectively only -1.75C and -3.75C

Now if you build a radiation inversion into that at  06z

Edited January 3, 2017 by knocker

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

February 3rd 2015.

We had the same here in Hertfordshire, which disappeared by Midday.

That memorable no one can remember it... Lol

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

We had the same here in Hertfordshire, which disappeared by Midday.

That memorable no one can remember it... Lol

It snowed in 2015

[shotski]

Yep! We also had a covering last winter that many seem to have forgot. Think it may have been around 16th Jan 2016 but hopefully someone can back this up 

Edited January 3, 2017 by shotski

[wrightc23]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

To cheer up those who like snow and sub zero  temperatures, from 2020 the UK will have a series of brutal winters where -20c will not be unusual, it will be like some of the winters of the early 1980's.  Solar activity and other factors will all lead to this cluster of freezing winters

 

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

lol i've been recognized, better go back to the Daily Express

I'm assuming this is the new maunder minimum the express seem to keep predicting? I've got my Amish survival wagon and bug-out bag at the ready.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, wrightc23 said:

 

I'm assuming this is the new maunder minimum the express seem to keep predicting? I've got my Amish survival wagon and bug-out bag at the ready.

Can't go wrong with all that kit. Apparently these mild winters are on their last legs and having a final run before they bow out

[wrightc23]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Can't go wrong with all that kit. Apparently these mild winters are on their last legs and having a final run before they bow out

Too true, we have to grow a very big beard as well apparently. I'm prepared what with Maunder, Carrington all incoming and that's before the arrival of Planet X. At least we might get some snow then!

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

Too true, we have to grow a very big beard as well apparently. I'm prepared what with Maunder, Carrington all incoming and that's before the arrival of Planet X. At least we might get some snow then!

Planet X should bring some sleet with it as it blots out the sun

[cyclonic happiness]

32 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Planet X should bring some sleet with it as it blots out the sun

if the sun disappeared entirely, the UK would still get the only 'warm sector' on the planet and have rain 

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

if the sun disappeared entirely, the UK would still get the only 'warm sector' on the planet and have rain 

lol sleet for the very highest hills

[wrightc23]

Funnily enough I've just visited the Daily Express website and the main article splashed across the homepage is 'Britain on HEAVY SNOW ALERT: Polar vortex to plunge UK into WORST January FREEZE in years'. Which model are they using? It can't be any I've seen before.

[Methuselah]

25 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol sleet for the very highest hills

You been following the trends again, lassie? Possible toppler at T+336?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, wrightc23 said:

Funnily enough I've just visited the Daily Express website and the main article splashed across the homepage is 'Britain on HEAVY SNOW ALERT: Polar vortex to plunge UK into WORST January FREEZE in years'. Which model are they using? It can't be any I've seen before.

Might be the ever-faithful snow-watchers' friend, the NAVGEM!

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Might be the ever-faithful snow-watchers' friend, the NAVGEM!

NathanGEM

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS is rubbish! wrong for Monday, Monday will be a washout, GFS shows it dry, UKMO/ECM calls it wet, GFS will be wrong

[AWD]

What's with all the excitement in the MOD thread?

Struggling to see anything interesting from a cold perspective in the 12z modelling personally.

Only positive I can see is the continuation of lack of zonality as per this winter so far.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, AWD said:

What's with all the excitement in the MOD thread?

Struggling to see anything interesting from a cold perspective in the 12z modelling personally.

Only positive I can see is the continuation of lack of zonality as per this winter so far.  

exactly, ECM is dreadful at 144/168, absolute rainfest on Mon and Tue for my location,