Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Summer Sun]

11 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

A tad chilly for Greece late this week  it's like their own version of Dec 2010.

 

 

 

 

Yup Athens haven't done too bad for snow lately

Seem like Greece and Turkey is the place to be for snow and deep cold not much change from the models today either the UK's winter remains 10 days plus away as it has for the past 4 weeks

Edited January 2, 2017 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

Another ' virtual cold' Gfs run this morning! I say virtual cold because thats the only proper cold spell we see in this country nowadays.

Has to be said, its becoming another lost cause of a winter..

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, shotski said:

But it's not unusual for Greece to be colder than us during the winter months, it's attached to a huge landmass 

We are seperated to that landmass by only 22 miles.

The issue is around the Greenland area where it is virtually impossible to get decent height rises. 

The pattern always pushes East as we near T+0, sending the cold to Greece.

That is half the meteorological Winter gone without a snow flake for most in this front loaded Winter.

Edited January 2, 2017 by mountain shadow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM not on board though with cold arriving on 12th, GFS fairly mild on 11th, then cold on 12th

[northwestsnow]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM not on board though with cold arriving on 12th, GFS fairly mild on 11th, then cold on 12th

There wont be any cold.Well not until April, that would be my shout, oh and huge greeny blocking and a southerly jet in june..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There wont be any cold.Well not until April, that would be my shout, oh and huge greeny blocking and a southerly jet in june..

wet snow late April likely, the perfect stup then

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

 And why dont we get snow from westerlies anymore? We sure as hell used to.

2nd March 2015

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/diary2015.html#201503

A mainly W'ly, blustery flow continued on the 2nd. After a widespread ground frost it was a showery day in N and W parts of the British Isles. Snow showers were widespread - particularly in Ireland, N England and over Scotland. Many E parts of England remained largely dry and, away from W-facing coasts,

We had snow from showers that morning, at virtual sea level.

[Gustywind]

I can see us getting more favourable blocking eventually this winter but probably not until February and it will likely be a fairly modest event. 

No significant lying snow (more than a covering) for me since March 2013, never known the likes of it around here in my lifetime (43 years), we've gone 2 years with no lying snow before, but never nearly 4. 

Until we see a change in the situation around Greenland that allows a more sustained period of negative NAO in winter, combined with greater sea ice to the north (to spice up northerlies), we'll continue to struggle to get much snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

remember it WH, but not a flake here, gone are the days of those uppers/thicknesses but a NW'ly, again 20th Dec was similar in '09, but Westerly winds, so not a flake here

[Gustywind]

For anyone who needs further proof over how things have changed, just go to the Jan temp prediction thread (page 1) and look at the historical records and how the average January temperature has changed over the past 100 years. 

[cheese]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We are seperated to that landmass by only 22 miles.

The issue is around the Greenland area where it is virtually impossible to get decent height rises. 

The pattern always pushes East as we near T+0, sending the cold to Greece.

That is half the meteorological Winter gone without a snow flake for most in this front loaded Winter.

And those 22 miles make a big difference. It means Paris is colder than London in winter despite being 200 or so miles further south. 

And in any case, 22 miles is the distance between the very narrowest point of the channel between Dover and Calais. If all of the UK's south or east coast was just 22 miles from the continent it might make more of a difference. It's the same in summer - normal for heatwaves to miss the UK while affecting Benelux and northern France.

For a weather forum, people on here seem to have a poor understanding of weather/climate.

Edited January 2, 2017 by cheese

[Fozfoster]

I see members are melting away from model thread with little prospect of serious cold or have they all got lost down the many garden paths? 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

2nd March 2015

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/diary2015.html#201503

A mainly W'ly, blustery flow continued on the 2nd. After a widespread ground frost it was a showery day in N and W parts of the British Isles. Snow showers were widespread - particularly in Ireland, N England and over Scotland. Many E parts of England remained largely dry and, away from W-facing coasts,

We had snow from showers that morning, at virtual sea level.

I dont subscribe to the large teapot theory kevin as i believe the weather patterns are cyclical , there will always be exceptions but i do believe we are going through a milder phase.Whether its Qbo related i have no idea, what cant be disputed is the VAST majority of the last 3 winters, ie dec jan and feb have been on the whole, snowless.

[markyo]

Folk should remember it is only the 2nd of January,things can change so hope is not lost. Think how you would be shot down in flames if on the 2nd of July you posted summers over,no heat at all!

[Norrona2015]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont subscribe to the large teapot theory kevin as i believe the weather patterns are cyclical , there will always be exceptions but i do believe we are going through a milder phase.Whether its Qbo related i have no idea, what cant be disputed is the VAST majority of the last 3 winters, ie dec jan and feb have been on the whole, snowless.

And I'd  wager that the next 3 UK winters for the vast majoirty will also be snowless. I doubt I'd be that far off the mark. 

[Weather-history]

10 hours ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

That cold front today...what the hell was that all about? Years gone by, and I know this as fact not only from my own memory but also from diary entries I made,,situations such as overnight/this morning in years gone by would have (not always but mostly) delivered a decent back edge snow event, even down to modest elevations. Today? Cold rain...even by some accounts I have heard at in places 1000 feet above sea level. What gives? 

That's a very simplistic analysis. Each scenario has its own set of circumstances.  To be honest, I don't recall that many back edge snow events. December 1995, just before Christmas, we just had rain and yet cold air was flooding southwards and it was cold air.. I think there was snow further southwards as the colder air digged further in. 

Back edge snow prospects is not something I get excited about because it hardly happens, at least around here. I am struggling to recall any notable examples around here. 

[snowblizzard]

17 minutes ago, cheese said:

And those 22 miles make a big difference. It means Paris is colder than London in winter despite being 300 or so miles further south. 

Please remember, the UK is an island surrounded by relatively warm water!

The prevailing winds are from the West or South West, air that has been modified (warmed-up) when crossing thousands of miles of water.

What are the odds of a cold winter in UK?

Extremely long, because there have only been a handful of cold winters in UK since 1900

Yes, quite a few cold snaps but very few cold winters.

Despite the UK's latitude, expectations run far too high I'm afraid.

But, we live in hope and continue the chase!

Edited January 2, 2017 by snowblizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Norrona2015 said:

And I'd  wager that the next 3 UK winters for the vast majoirty will also be snowless. I doubt I'd be that far off the mark. 

probably not in your location, I'm always confident of snow in Aberdeen, Mark, I'd never think summer over on July 2, as we are guaranteed summery weather, especially in Aug and Sep

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

Folk should remember it is only the 2nd of January,things can change so hope is not lost. Think how you would be shot down in flames if on the 2nd of July you posted summers over,no heat at all!

We will see.Im losing hope already, and i dont even give any credence to anymore gfs virtual cold spells at t200 hours..

Its a mirage..

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Please remember, the UK is an island surrounded by relatively warm water!

The prevailing winds are from the West or South West, air that has been modified (warmed-up) when crossing thousands of miles of water.

What are the odds of a cold winter in UK?

Extremely long, because there have only been a handful of cold winters in UK since 1900

Yes, quite a few cold snaps but very few cold winters.

Expectations are far too high I'm afraid.

While you are correct about the location of the UK as someone who is in their mid 40s i saw loads of snow in the late 70s and pretty much all the way through the 80s , our geographical location didnt seem to stop the cold spells then...

[snowblizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We will see.Im losing hope already, and i dont even give any credence to anymore gfs virtual cold spells at t200 hours..

Its a mirage..

We really shouldn't bother to look any further out than T96?

Just rely on Met Office Fax charts to T96

Even they are quite often wrong at that short range!

[shotski]

29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We are seperated to that landmass by only 22 miles.

The issue is around the Greenland area where it is virtually impossible to get decent height rises. 

The pattern always pushes East as we near T+0, sending the cold to Greece.

That is half the meteorological Winter gone without a snow flake for most in this front loaded Winter.

Agree, northern blocking in that area seems to be much harder to achieve in the winter months, come April I'm sure we'll see this change. 

Obviously the Atlantic and the prevailing jet stream play a big part in our climate and those 22 miles do make a difference. Take iceland for example, a couple of hundred miles off Greenland (-34 at present) but Reykjavik is at +2. Obviously I know there are colder parts of iceland but nothing that extreme. 

Shotski

 

 

[snowblizzard]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While you are correct about the location of the UK as someone who is in their mid 40s i saw loads of snow in the late 70s and pretty much all the way through the 80s , our geographical location didnt seem to stop the cold spells then...

Yes, cold spells that probably only lasted 3-5 days

But, not sustained cold winters.

Edited January 2, 2017 by snowblizzard

[sundog]

Time and time and time again over the last 20 to 30 yrs when we see the likes of greece gettng cold shots and western europe getting little or nothing,that usually the status quo remains for the entire winter.

Edited January 2, 2017 by sundog

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

Agree, northern blocking in that area seems to be much harder to achieve in the winter months, come April I'm sure we'll see this change. 

Obviously the Atlantic and the prevailing jet stream play a big part in our climate and those 22 miles do make a difference. Take iceland for example, a couple of hundred miles off Greenland (-34 at present) but Reykjavik is at +2. Obviously I know there are colder parts of iceland but nothing that extreme. 

Shotski

 

 

Slightly different though as Greenie is further north than Iceland