Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Seasonality]

On 11/29/2016 at 13:23, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes @Frosty. shorts/flip flops out on 06Z, following on from 00Z, expect ECM to go same way on 12Z

Seriously man, you're a one trick pony. You need more gags other than "its going to be mild!!!!"  

[Seasonality]

14 hours ago, igloo said:

well if the GFS 18z is right we could well have a hosepipe ban in january unheard of as its bone dry from start to finish it could well take us back to the early 80s where it was so cold and frosty we had to defrost the diesel from our dump trucks and other heavy machines by setting fires below them in the mornings to defrost and that lasted 6 weeks is another one of these on the cards

What year was that? Sounds very cold for the diesel to have reached gel point for six weeks. Apparently they do the same trick in Siberia with the fires.

[Seasonality]

14 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Maybe they're an organised rabble hired by the proprietor of this website Paul to liven things up at this time of year - more internet traffic? wonder how much he pays the Murr man? joking aside makes you wonder what they are doing for the rest of the year though, without sounding like a stalker some accounts are not active for 6 months or more..... or maybe it's none of my business what they are up to during their sabbaticals.

Lol. True about the accounts, I looked myself out of curiosity. But in seriousness I think winter seems to generate more excitement in general, not just the experts who reappear but also run of the mill members and the trolls and troublemakers. Winter it seems simply has more excitement and drama and holds our interest.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

well if this isn't mild then what is, 06Z GFS, similar to yesterdays 06Z, just hope not much rain, 14° normally means rain in Dec, Jan and Feb

[jvenge]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

well if this isn't mild then what is, 06Z GFS, similar to yesterdays 06Z, just hope not much rain, 14° normally means rain in Dec, Jan and Feb

Just don't look at it :-)

Don't give too much thoughts to anything past day 7, or day 8 at a push. Things regularly change 10 days out. The only interesting things to watch in longer term output is how ensembles cluster or not. That can be the sign of a likely pattern occurring. 

Being selfish, I'm quite happy with my start to winter. Last year December was a no show for winter.

Edited November 30, 2016 by jvenge

[Seasonality]

8 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Just don't look at it :-)

Don't give too much thoughts to anything past day 7, or day 8 at a push. Things regularly change 10 days out. The only interesting things to watch in longer term output is how ensembles cluster or not. That can be the sign of a likely pattern occurring. 

Being selfish, I'm quite happy with my start to winter. Last year December was a no show for winter.

Yes, been a pretty good start in Warsaw too compared to last year. Had snow back in second week of September and again now for past few days (barring a pesky mild blip tomorrow). But the outlook still looking pleasantly seasonal, even if it isn't exceptional. Forecast below.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2016 by Seasonality

[jvenge]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Yes, been a pretty good start in Warsaw too compared to last year. Had snow back in second week of September and again now for past few days (barring a pesky mild blip tomorrow). But the outlook still looking pleasantly seasonal, even if it isn't exceptional.

 

 

Well, I don't actually like deep cold. Happy with seasonal stuff. That said, as the days go by now, the "normal" temperature reduces significantly to the extent that by Christmas it is an anomaly to be above freezing during the day. It seems like the trend is for below average for the first half of December, giving me many ice days for the foreseeable. I'm hoping not too brutal though. 

[Seasonality]

27 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Well, I don't actually like deep cold. Happy with seasonal stuff. That said, as the days go by now, the "normal" temperature reduces significantly to the extent that by Christmas it is an anomaly to be above freezing during the day. It seems like the trend is for below average for the first half of December, giving me many ice days for the foreseeable. I'm hoping not too brutal though. 

Yes, climactic average for Warsaw and Chisinau is actually just right. Minus double digit maxima can be rather unpleasant and the sight of the River Vistula entirely frozen over is nice but I can take it or leave it.

[ArHu3]

3 hours ago, jvenge said:

Well, I don't actually like deep cold. Happy with seasonal stuff. That said, as the days go by now, the "normal" temperature reduces significantly to the extent that by Christmas it is an anomaly to be above freezing during the day. It seems like the trend is for below average for the first half of December, giving me many ice days for the foreseeable. I'm hoping not too brutal though. 

Not really on topic but for me as the temperature drops below freezing there is range where the feel actually gets warmer a bit, before of course plummeting. I think the coldest most miserable weather is 0-3 degrees with sleet or freezing rain, with 0, -2 or -3 when it snows, the stuff melts on you body and you lose warmth, a little bit colder and it shrugs off without melting 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes Frosty, ECM joins GFS now in, crap weather on show, flip flop sales on the up, shorts too

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes Frosty, ECM joins GFS now in, crap weather on show, flip flop sales on the up, shorts too

That's just one day though - is the milder weather predicted to go on for the following week on from 7th?

Edited November 30, 2016 by Bristle boy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

That's just one day though - is the milder weather predicted to go on for the following week on from 7th?

hoping its the 'transition' as the experts seem to think cold 2nd half of Dec, wouldn't mind a mild wet Atlantic week, even 2, IF we were guaranteed snow/cold 2nd half Dec, but we are not guaranteed it at all

[Gustywind]

Weren't the long range models indicating a turn to cold with northern blocking a couple of weeks ago?

Now they're predicting the same thing in a couple of weeks time, based presumably on similar signals.

Suggests to me the LRF models are struggling with the pattern and over estimating high level blocking signals. Hence not to be trusted with the current pattern.

[MidnightSnow]

I like that it's just showing milder weather in the 2nd week... because that's exactly what was predicted  Plus nothing has changed in the MetO long range forecast. "Temperatures are likely to be colder than average." for the second half of Dec still remains. (updated today.)

Edited November 30, 2016 by MidnightSnow

[mountain shadow]

Matt Hugo just about throwing in the towel already.

Winter forecast doon the pan a couple of days after put out?

 

[Ravelin]

Enjoying the epidemic of wrist slashing going on in the main thread tonight. At least it'll weed out the lightweights who can't handle the inevitability of the UK weather's roller-coaster ride.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Enjoying the epidemic of wrist slashing going on in the main thread tonight. At least it'll weed out the lightweights who can't handle the inevitability of the UK weather's roller-coaster ride.

maybe realism creeping in, never to underestimate the Atlantic in Dec! no wrist slashing from me, I expect the Atlantic every year, still amazed though at first 5 days, I didn't expect HP in Dec

Edited November 30, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[northwestsnow]

Looks like i will setting up shop in here for a while...

The Atlantic is no respecter of background signals,the long range colder stuff will backtrack over the next few days,im convinced of it...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looks like i will setting up shop in here for a while...

The Atlantic is no respecter of background signals,the long range colder stuff will backtrack over the next few days,im convinced of it...

You sound like me! my thoughts too though, I try to post realistically or I wouldn't post it! we all have opinions on weather, mine is mild mild mild, just enjoy first 5 days of winter cold fans!

[Gustywind]

31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Matt Hugo just about throwing in the towel already.

Winter forecast doon the pan a couple of days after put out?

 

He's basically repeated what I said earlier, that the long range models keep predicting strong northern blocking and low Iberian heights, but this isn't materialising in reality.

We see the same prediction for mid December but again now it's coming into range the shorter range models seem to be downplaying the blocking.

I fear the Long range forecasts have been over amplifying the pattern and are now repeating the same mistake in mid/late Dec.

[Frost HoIIow]

I can't remember a November with such anticipation as this one, mostly because the signs were good going into early Winter, if we are going to get a front loaded Winter then we need to see some promising charts in the next few days or we could be looking at things getting pushed further back....again.

[snowbunting]

Its a year of a rather tame atlantic. It really doesn't get any more promising than this!

[snowbunting]

On ‎28‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 15:16, snowbunting said:

Suspect Greenie high will nake an apoearance mid december...

What did I tell you! Yes CFS is being a complete metaphorical tease!

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I can't remember a November with such anticipation as this one, mostly because the signs were good going into early Winter, if we are going to get a front loaded Winter then we need to see some promising charts in the next few days or we could be looking at things getting pushed further back....again.

Early signs mean zilch.

Most people in internet land on forums just believe what they read on the internet. It's laughable really.

There are an elite number of posters on NW who really know their stuff (weather wise) and a select few who are genuinely educated in this field and are scientifically clued up.

The British Isles weather is affected by a relatively mild Atlantic most of the time. The last 10 months or so have been relatively dry and it can only be a matter of time before the Atlantic cranks up. 

As for excitement building because to our East the cold is building.....well in 9 out of 10 winters it does, because that part of the world just does get v cold in Winter. It sometimes visits our green and pleasant land once a decade...or so.

 

[cheshire snow]

10 minutes early but hay..Happy winter 2016-2017 let's hope it's a good one

C.S