Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[MidnightSnow]

From the MetO, updated an hour ago:

"A colder north to north-easterly is then likely to become established from Friday onwards, with frequent wintry showers across northern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly down the North Sea coasts. However, there will be a good deal of dry and sunny weather elsewhere. Some cold and clear nights, with widespread frost and the risk of icy patches."

 

 

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Don't lose hope guys! My central heating died on the 23rd December and it's still dead. Now, past experience has taught me that when the central heating dies, that's when we get the coldest spell. So while my central heating is dead there's always a good chance of an arctic blast. This seems to be a much more reliable model for forecasting cold. I'll keep you all informed.

Wishing everyone a prosperous New Year and looking at the models, a very early Spring. Does anyone know if tomorrow will be hot,cold,dry or wet. I did think about consulting a Psychic over this.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

From the MetO, updated an hour ago:

"A colder north to north-easterly is then likely to become established from Friday onwards, with frequent wintry showers across northern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly down the North Sea coasts. However, there will be a good deal of dry and sunny weather elsewhere. Some cold and clear nights, with widespread frost and the risk of icy patches."

 

 

Well, not for the first time, I am at a complete and utter loss as to how the Met has reached that conclusion...Any ideas?

[stewfox]

27 minutes ago, Cloudy daze said:

This looks interesting at T 300.......

Thats the GFS 6z ?

GFS 12z has

Edited December 31, 2016 by stewfox

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

I'm aware some of this may not be rational but this is the moaning thread and I need a moan

Given what the only other area at our latitude with a somewhat similar climate (the Pacific NW) has got and is going to get (more snow, well below zero maxima in Vancouver, Seattle, even Portland) There may be one hell of a moan from me if we can't get something here with the charts we've been seeing...

It really seems it's just us that suffers.

Anyway, UKMO is steadily poor at T+144/168, GFS/ECM may be better but even they struggle to bring an easterly, and by the time the GFS does I'd have forgotten the definition of FI if I took much notice.

Also given its consistency and other models moving towards it in the shorter term, why should I think that UKMO T+144/168 will be wrong?

I expect we'll get something like a UK high, That's what the ensemble means appear to support most (the latest ECM mean doesn't support an easterly and is a downgrade from last night, the high is getting squashed a bit here with heights falling to the north.

Yes, maybe there are some better clusters, but there often are, fat lot of good they've done so far.

It may look pretty on pressure anomaly charts seeing reds to the north and blues to the south but unless the actual isobars follow that pattern (or such a pattern verifies)...

It's a good outlook if you like mid latitude highs. Still, we should get some nice frosty conditions (unless we are unlucky, which has happened a lot recently. We could end up in a weatherless s### fest again while the continent freezes).

There is hope, but that's all it ever seems to be. Well, one decent frost forecast on Monday night at least.
 

What really gets me is that outside of the tropics a cold front usually means that you get some snow, even in Tasmania last year a cold front produced snow, in the UK we get rain then a frost!

Tomorrows cold front (never mind the FI fantasy Easterlies and -20c temps on Wimbledon Common)  only produces snow in Europe as we can see, we even get a wave that develops over the SE of the UK that slows the front down, but still no undercut of cold air!

 

Did it not snow in the home counties, heavy snow if I remember right that settled in late October, yes, OCTOBER a few years back on a similar set up? And yet nothing in January, some of the coldest temps recorded here in recent years have been in late November in fact.

 

Come on January....DO SOMETHING!

 

Indeed as you say this is the moaning thread after all.....Moan now officially over.

[MP-R]

If the undercut of sufficiently cold air arrives quick enough while there is precipitation still around, there is no reason why it wouldn't fall as snow. It would defy the science not to haha. It will just all depend on where the catch up takes place. If it doesn't happen until the front is over northern France, that is where the snow will fall.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

46 minutes ago, Cloudy daze said:

This looks interesting at T 300.......

the 06Z certainly does look realistic, unlike the fantasy E'lys that have been showing, who knows maybe a start of a trend, for zonality to return on 8th January

[mountain shadow]

29 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

From the MetO, updated an hour ago:

"A colder north to north-easterly is then likely to become established from Friday onwards, with frequent wintry showers across northern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly down the North Sea coasts. However, there will be a good deal of dry and sunny weather elsewhere. Some cold and clear nights, with widespread frost and the risk of icy patches."

 

 

Mystified by that. 

I can only assume they expect next weekends "Northerly" to hold just enough West for the cold air to clip the East coast.

 

[snow freak]

i wonder why some people remain interested in model watching only to get disappointed when they don't come to fruition.  I hate the british winters, they are predominantly mild and snowless most years and we cannot even seem to get a few days of cold and snow these days.  i have given up even listening to what the models say now and just take each day as it comes....which undoubtedly will be the usual autumnal weather which we now seem to get throughout the year.  No distinct seasons whatsoever.

[ArHu3]

Just now, snow freak said:

i wonder why some people remain interested in model watching only to get disappointed when they don't come to fruition.  I hate the british winters, they are predominantly mild and snowless most years and we cannot even seem to get a few days of cold and snow these days.  i have given up even listening to what the models say now and just take each day as it comes....which undoubtedly will be the usual autumnal weather which we now seem to get throughout the year.  No distinct seasons whatsoever.

My 4 year old daughter asks me everyday when it is going to snow  I miss the snow too, those peaceful cold evening strolls through the snow

[snowbunting]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Mystified by that. 

I can only assume they expect next weekends "Northerly" to hold just enough West for the cold air to clip the East coast.

 

My hunch too.. that is a mighty area of high pressure... almost an omega block...1040mb+ will not shift quietly. 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, wrightc23 said:

It hasn't been posted for a few pages, 'Winter's over', roll on Spring.

It isn't just this winter that's over IMO - for lowland Britain, every winter is over.  Our climate has changed rapidly, and, as such, lowland snow is history.

[BlueHedgehog074]

That's finally all the toys gathered up from the Model thread. Man, wish people would just keep their toys with them in their prams.

[lassie23]

iapenell 5 weather models 0

[Hammer50]

Just took dog for a walk it feels like a cold day in the wind strange though the wind is blowing in the west it feels more like an east wind maybe we are in for some of the white stuff I can feel it in my bones the last time I felt like this was in 2010 and I was right only time will tell.I don't follow the models right out in Lala land only follow with 2 days to go as more reliable 9 times out of 10.

[The Wolf]

All falling apart yet again. This winter will be just like all the recent ones. Dire.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

Just took dog for a walk it feels like a cold day in the wind strange though the wind is blowing in the west it feels more like an east wind maybe we are in for some of the white stuff I can feel it in my bones the last time I felt like this was in 2010 and I was right only time will tell.I don't follow the models right out in Lala land only follow with 2 days to go as more reliable 9 times out of 10.

assuming you live in london? no way will we see the white stuff in the next week in the south

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

I think it's very hard not to build up some kind of hope and expectation reading the MOD thread, especially when the most highly respected members we have were gunning for cold again (not blaming them)

Perhaps there's a lesson in there for me.

Just borrowing this post from the MOD thread to illustrate my point

Does this ever happened the other way round?

No I can confirm that it has NEVER happened the other way round...

[snowray]

35 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

My 4 year old daughter asks me everyday when it is going to snow  I miss the snow too, those peaceful cold evening strolls through the snow

Interesting FAX chart showing somewhat more potential that the UKMO output, could still get a Northerly/Northeasterly out of that.

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Interesting FAX chart showing somewhat more potential that the UKMO output, could still get a Northerly/Northeasterly out of that.

Arpege puts my ony 10-15km on the wrong side of the snowborder for the coming week, nothing here a few km away a decent 4-6cm

[radiohead]

On the 06Z GFS, Greece is down to -23 and covered in snow....

...on he same day that double digit temps push into the southwest here...

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

On the 06Z GFS, Greece is down to -23 and covered in snow....

...on he same day that double digit temps push into the southwest here...

Even Corfu is v cold! Yikes! 

[hooch5]

January 17th - 14 degrees warm and spring like, then on January 20th it started getting colder, I wonder if  January 2017 is starting to bear a resemblance?

[ArHu3]

22 minutes ago, radiohead said:

On the 06Z GFS, Greece is down to -23 and covered in snow....

...on he same day that double digit temps push into the southwest here...

I had to google it but average temperature for athens in january is 12C, quite exceptional this

[Gord]

Yep, lowland snow in Britain is complete history. Just like we said it was during winter 2008.

A bit like after that amazing August 13 years ago we can expect somewhere to reach 100F every year from now on. July 2006 also told us that British summers would always be hot from now on.

Last winter we learnt that every British winter will be wet and stormy from now on...

...see where I'm going with this?