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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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6 minutes ago, mhielte said:

The 6z is about as bad as it gets.

Peter-Griffin-Hanged-90752.gif

Hoping it is a big outlier on the ensembles. I'd rather it go zonal than back to the featureless crud of this output.

No thanks! Last winter was almost non-stop zonal weather, endless Atlantic fronts delivering rain. Look at all the flooding that caused. The one thing I was hoping for this winter was that areas of the country so badly affected by flooding over the past few years were finally given a break - and they finally have. Don't go jinxing it!

Edited by cheese
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5 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Well, at least I'm moaning in the moaning thread instead I guess...

That makes it seem a bit better, but at least they have had some very good summers (although this year wasn't as good)

Oh well, looks like I may well not see my first accumulating snow for over 3 years this winter.

I'm aware this is probably OTT and the sort of thing I might look back and think wow did I go on that much of a rant, but I'm feeling particularly down atm partly due to the outlook change and need vent some frustration.
Then again I see the 06z GFS and think maybe it's not quite so OTT.

Just seems the models, and everyone including the more experienced forecasters/posters had expectations too high this year, we never seem to get no models showing cold northerlies and easterlies only for one to pop up in the shorter timeframe.. but often mild south-westerly GFS 06z charts do.

Yeah, they've had some great summers. Last summer was their hottest on record. That's something we've not had. Never say never though.

Edited by cheese
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It's only in the summer months that the models tend to get a hang on things better,winter... forget even looking till sub 96hr,total waste of time. Just way to many variables. Looking like another generally snow less January coming up,probably not even that cold. Sorry but its true.:wallbash:

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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yeah, they've had some great summers. Last summer was their hottest on record. That's something we've not had. Never say never though.

Great summers are not the always hottest,i can remember 76,lot of problems and serious misery caused to wildlife. Its like the coldest winters,not great by any means.

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it's been like a Pantomime in the Model thread over the last few days......It'll be more like an accident and emergency after the GFS06z run...i cant look, Opening times

anyone!!!

 

Edit,,, Pantomime....This is not directed at well respected members.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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I think it's very hard not to build up some kind of hope and expectation reading the MOD thread, especially when the most highly respected members we have were gunning for cold again (not blaming them)

Perhaps there's a lesson in there for me.

Just borrowing this post from the MOD thread to illustrate my point

40 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

It is impossible to get rid of that HP over Europe. Impossible. 

Two days ago vs. today. Same old.

gfs-0-216.png?6gfs-0-168.png?6

Does this ever happened the other way round?

Edited by Evening thunder
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So first it was a front loaded cold December. Then it was delayed to early Jan. Now the talk is mid-late Jan for winter proper to arrive. Anyone see a pattern developing here?

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan Bollen said:

I think winter will go pearshaped like last winter mild and cold. Not banking on it yet. You never know what computers do. 

We have that most winters. I want a very cold winter with lots of snow:drunk-emoji:

2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

At least I'll be able to get the BBQ out this winter. I think our mild winters recently are due to Donald Trumps flatulence. I can't think of what else it could be. 

You may well be right:laugh:

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6 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

It hasn't been posted for a few pages, 'Winter's over', roll on Spring.

Rep for anyone that sets up a 'thoughts for spring thread'

Edited by stewfox
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I kind of feel the GFS 06z is this winters potential fork in the road - I may personally wish to dismiss it but all too often rather than an outlier it is the GFS picking up something ahead of the rest. If the 06z verifies the best of winter will once again be lost. January has been a disappointing month for 20 years now    

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22 minutes ago, Jonathan Bollen said:

I think winter will go pearshaped like last winter mild and cold. Not banking on it yet. You never know what computers do. 

 

1 minute ago, Kentish Man said:

I kind of feel the GFS 06z is this winters potential fork in the road - I may personally wish to dismiss it but all too often rather than an outlier it is the GFS picking up something ahead of the rest. If the 06z verifies the best of winter will once again be lost. January has been a disappointing month for 20 years now    

As my original post I said pearshaped winter again. 

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3 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

I kind of feel the GFS 06z is this winters potential fork in the road - I may personally wish to dismiss it but all too often rather than an outlier it is the GFS picking up something ahead of the rest. If the 06z verifies the best of winter will once again be lost. January has been a disappointing month for 20 years now    

UKMO I'm afraid gets the Oscar on this one. Jan 2009 was very snowy in many places

Edited by stewfox
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36 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I think it's very hard not to build up some kind of hope and expectation reading the MOD thread, especially when the most highly respected members we have were gunning for cold again (not blaming them)

Perhaps there's a lesson in there for me.

Just borrowing this post from the MOD thread to illustrate my point

Does this ever happened the other way round?

What never ceases to amaze me is the "ability" of the models to flip flop to such an extent over such relatively short periods. So, what is it? Are the models basically flawed or is it our interpretation that is an issue.

Case in point - the Finance Director reports to the Board that his department's forecasting models projected a £10m surplus in two weeks time and then on the next run this disappears. What about "lessons learned" etc?

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11 minutes ago, stewfox said:

UKMO I'm afraid gets the Oscar on this one. Jan 2009 was very snowy in many places

Indeed although as UKMO doesn't go out as far into the future as the others its not always as obvious!  Thinking about Januarys 2009 was a bit snowy as you say as was 1996 I think but overall there's not be too much to really write home about for us soft southerners since 1987 and before that 1979 

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Another apparent let down in the chase for cold with the UKMO seemingly calling it right. I for one am enjoying the roller coaster though. Huge spread in the 6z GEFS. Nothing decided yet.

I bet the UKMO flips on the 12z this evening and the EC/GFS go mild. Seen it so many times here in the past when the only model that goes against cold becomes the only model for cold!! 

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13 minutes ago, Dublin Novice said:

What never ceases to amaze me is the "ability" of the models to flip flop to such an extent over such relatively short periods. So, what is it? Are the models basically flawed or is it our interpretation that is an issue.

 

Modelling the natural world is notoriously complex. We often don't understand the rules to any great degree (and how to describe them) let alone how they interact. If you consider the sheer scale of data we'd need to sample with our global climate plus the complex interactions we'd need to understand I'm amazed we can accurately model to the level we currently achieve. Throw in the interaction between the sea and atmosphere plus external factors such as the earth's rotation and influence of the sun and it's a mind boggling amount of data we'd need to collect.

Edited by wrightc23
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Don't lose hope guys! My central heating died on the 23rd December and it's still dead. Now, past experience has taught me that when the central heating dies, that's when we get the coldest spell. So while my central heating is dead there's always a good chance of an arctic blast. This seems to be a much more reliable model for forecasting cold. I'll keep you all informed.

:cold:

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