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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    2 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Actually I have just read it, and his earlier post, and totally agree but the problem is, unless one is prepared to spend a fair bit of time wading through it all, it's easy to miss posts such as this. Frankly I don't see the point of a forensic analysis of every run unless one is looking for detail in the very near time frame. Take an overview having looked at the ens and relaxed a bit

    Absolutely.  I may have been having a bit of fun a few minutes ago with my "New Model Winter" post, but I wrote it in this thread, and it was motivated purely by an unwelcome but profound sense of schadenfreude at those who were going OTT regarding yesterdays' GFS 06z now going the other way on seeing todays' 12z output.  I agree fully with your view that finding the intelligent, reasoned analysis in there isn't straightforward.  My approach is a lengthy Ignore listand paying particular attention to members whose analysis I trust (yourself included).

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    I am some what bemused by some of the posts today. Let me start with the UKMO.

    The UKMO has in the past been the party pooper when it comes to E,lys. However when I say the past I am referring to the many years that I have been a member on here. So with this in mind why are some assuming the UKMO could be right again when the ECM, UKMO, GFS have all been upgraded in some form since then. Maybe what caused the ECM/GFS to be more unreliable with regards to E,lys has been ironed out.  The fact is we just don't know!

    I actually don't mind the UKMO because if anything it could bring in an E,ly sooner than what the previous GFS runs has been suggesting. Only downside is with the UKMO you do have the risk of the cold E,lys not reaching the UK and of course no 2nd N,ly.

    Like I said last night forget the ensembles and just focus on these varied operationals. I noted someone mentioned the GEFS mean at +240 which to me is as reliable as using seaweed at the moment. Personally I am not assuming the GFS/ECM/UKMO are right and actually I feel they could be all wrong. When you have such a massive disagreement within the operationals you often find this to be true.

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    I'm struggling to get excited about a few cold days of sleet . I must be missing something here .

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Like I said last night forget the ensembles and just focus on these varied operationals. I noted someone mentioned the GEFS mean at +240 which to me is as reliable as using seaweed at the moment. Personally I am not assuming the GFS/ECM/UKMO are right and actually I feel they could be all wrong. When you have such a massive disagreement within the operationals you often find this to be true.

    I 'm afraid I respectfully disagree regarding the ensembles - surely the spread in terms of extent and when it appears gives an idea of the level of Shannon Entropy?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    if anything I prefer the 12Z to the 06Z, 06Z was a rainfest for this location, 12Z looks cold and dry, with still hints of E'ly in deep FI, worse than 06Z though for those up a mountain (5th-9th) 

    h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

    Once again, I'm beginning to get that sinking feeling!

    There appears to be a gradual move away from any sustained deep cold & snowy weather setting in from E or NE!

    Have the UK experts in Exeter got it right yet again against all the odds & most of the other models?

    And, it all looked so promising!

     

     

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    I 'm afraid I respectfully disagree regarding the ensembles - surely the spread in terms of extent and when it appears gives an idea of the level of Shannon Entropy?

    Look at it this way. The operationals are showing huge uncertainity. This is despite the fact that compared to the ensembles they are run at a higher resolution and do not have their starting data altered. So with this in mind if the operationals are prone to changes then the ensembles are likely to be even more erractic and in my opinion useless.

    There was a time in these situations when I would follow all model output and look at every single ensemble member. However years of following the models has taught me its a waste of time and energy.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    20 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    I'm struggling to get excited about a few cold days of sleet . I must be missing something here .

    Not at all. That is all it will come to. UKMO has been bang on with the prediction,way,way to much hype going on,folk shouldn't get so carried away,pointless. But that's just my opinion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

    Hey ho.... first rollercoaster dip of the season lol.... there will be more and hopefully a few high points too.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    it will be Mark, we are in the modern erà now, fantasy synoptics will not happen, we all know now that all cold will be watered down, expecting 2-3 mild days from 5th to 7th Jan, around 11°

    after then uncertainties, maybe battleground event, but experience says in recent years, any snow will be E Midlands, northwards/eastwards

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastry, Kent CT13 0HF
  • Location: Eastry, Kent CT13 0HF

    well the extended outlook on the met office, mentions below average temps and possibility of an easterly developing later in the month. From what i've seen it fits with some of the output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    UKMO looks like it had the right idea.

    Toys incoming in 3-2-1...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    typical example here, yes some may argue, correctly that it hasn't happened yet, but for Thurs 5th Jan, the UKMO was showing the least cold setup, and it looks like it may be right, ECM joining UKMO now

    ECM1-144.GIF?30-0

    if I was a betting man, I will always go for the mildest model for that certain day

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    ecm implodes!!.guess the lesson is here dont be sucked in to early!!!.that aside the outlook is looking cold with many a twist and turn.the nhp profile is looking good and the atlantic is quiet

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    unless iapenell is convinced of a proper cold spell, then it isn't going to happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Euro High spoiling again if latest charts verify.....at least that keeps it warm in the Canaries (3 weeks to go!:yahoo:)

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    unless iapenell is convinced of a proper cold spell, then it isn't going to happen.

    He's only human you know - he can be incorrect!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    If there is one place in the Northern hemisphere that is guaranteed to be mild it's Western Europe, very difficult to get away from that,

    If there is one glimmer of hope - maybe all the models have picked  up what the UKMO was showing, and once we move forward 24-36hrs they will revert back to a better long term colder solution as previously shown.

    If not, then it's another snowy proper Winter weather opportunity gone beginning. It will still be cold, but not proper snowy cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

    Lots of scenarios to discuss as always.

    I always try to remember that this island we live on is so small that it doesn't take much of a shift to completely change what we get.

    Imagine if everything had been 100-200 miles futher west in winter 2001..and again in 2011/12. 200 miles is nothing in the grand scheme of things and the day that we can confidently predict what will happen on our little group of islands in one week/2 weeks time will be the day that we've cracked weather forecasting for good.

    Lots more to go yet..a lot of discussion and debate to have yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    He's only human you know - he can be incorrect!

    He has been incorrect about certain details through the summer, autumn and winter, but the main theme of his winter, no prolonged intense cold, still holds out well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

    Same old story on the ECM, short term downgrades, lots of potential in longer range for easterlies etc, but higher heights over Iberia cling onto the UK and refuse to release their vice like grip on us.

    So for the next 2 weeks at least, lots more high pressure and temps alternating between cool (with occasional night frosts and fog) and milder with south or south westerly winds. Rainfall remaining below average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    He has been incorrect about certain details through the summer, autumn and winter, but the main theme of his winter, no prolonged intense cold, still holds out well.

    Seeing as the uk on average only gets prolonged deep cold only every 15 years or so it's probably not to difficult to forecast it won't happen. Let's see how things pan out before we start slapping backs 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    7 minutes ago, shotski said:

    Seeing as the uk on average only gets prolonged deep cold only every 15 years or so it's probably not to difficult to forecast it won't happen. Let's see how things pan out before we start slapping backs 

     

    he predicted the non stop storms of 2013-2014 and a mild 2014-2015

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