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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, Bristle boy said:

    Latest runs scream dry, dry, cold, cold for the forseeable, to me....but i could be wrong.

    Agree with that, you're not wrong as that's what ECM is showing, seems realistic as well, what's the betting January 6th northerly will fail, a bit like ECM, expect shift east on GFS tomorrow

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    At the moment its about getting quality charts into the 96 range, else I could have the same as ive had all winter so far, ive seen an inch and a half of snow in November, followed by a month and a half of it belting down with potential!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

    A wee thought. When storm Barbara was due to hit our shores. It was the ECM that put it into the storm of doom category. Exceedingly deep low tracking just to the NW of us.  The GFS kept it realistic and the path pretty much spot on. Worst winds over Faeroes.

     

    Why would these two charts flip flop around in reliability? 

    What if the GFS has found something interesting. It does happen and it is overdue. Surely with a very quiet atlantic, something must surely give.

    Besides Santa sent the kids sledges, last time he did that was Dec 2010!!!

    Edited by snowbunting
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

    A wee thought. When storm Barbara was due to hit our shores. It was the ECM that put it into the storm of doom category. Exceedingly deep low tracking just to the NW of us.  The GFS kept it realistic and the path pretty much spot on. Worst winds over Faeroes.

     

    Why would these two charts flip flop around in reliability? 

    What if the GFS has found something interesting. It does happen and it is overdue. Surely with a very quiet atlantic, something must surely give.

    Besides Santa sent the kids sledges, last time he did that wad Dec 3010!!!

    :oops: was that BC? if so no Xmas

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

    By the latest runs its looking like January's going to be a cold one. The Atlantic radiator looks rarely on our shores from the 1st. 

    :yahoo:

    IMG_0905.PNG

    Edited by Matthew Wilson
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    Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

    I would happily settle for a longish period of cold, enough to freeze Port Meadow so we can go ice skating there. Better than nothing, even if we have to wait until 3010 for sledging :D

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

    I still don't see any noteworthy cold over central Europe. Windchill will make it feel more cold next week with quite strong SW wind but surface temps will remain above average here. It seems to me that carrot is still dangling at least 9 days away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

    Oops typo... on phone big [email protected]@

    I cannot use them things! 6310i rules!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Just looked outside and no snow, weve now got a foot of lying potential snow though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    My fear is that the second northerly (if it happens) will be shortened and watered down by the time it enters the reliable timeframe. This is something we've seen before in recent years.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    I suspect there will be many glum faces over the next 48hrs,cold outlook yes for a time,snow,not a lot in the offering,the models will start to move towards that out come,the Meto is probably showing the way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

    The models if anything hsve intensified that second Nly outbreak this morning... The Uk is about to go into the freezer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
    7 minutes ago, markyo said:

    I suspect there will be many glum faces over the next 48hrs,cold outlook yes for a time,snow,not a lot in the offering,the models will start to move towards that out come,the Meto is probably showing the way.

    Dont be too downbeat.. The Fergie has just tweated to say they have tweaked the meto model so it is in line with other models. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    Why /? Fergie has already said the UK model has had to be adjusted to bring in line with other models

    We have been here before I just want everything to fall in to place for beastly from the east.:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
    15 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

    Dont be too downbeat.. The Fergie has just tweated to say they have tweaked the meto model so it is in line with other models. 

    Tweaked the METO model what does that mean?

    a man in a white coat has just gone into the PC to show us all what we want to see...

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    I'm waiting.....waiting for the first cries of the gfs is backtracking to the ukmo...please god! Noooooooooooo

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
    10 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

    Tweaked the METO model what does that mean?

    a man in a white coat has just gone into the PC to show us all what we want to see...

    C.S

    Check out Fergies tweat. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Phew!

    For a wee second there, I thought that maybe the MetO had gone and 'tweaked' the weather?:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
    14 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

    Check out Fergies tweat. 

    I Will await the UKMO 12Z With interest

    C.S

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