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This is wrong on so many levels...

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    Got this feeling the 12z is gonna be a peach of a run ! Wont be as good as the 6z but will good enough to get the sledge waxed and ready 

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

    Looks good but as ever, I would expect the output become more balanced as the time approaches. Hopefully still on the cold side though. We could be in for something half decent at last but probably not as good as this mornings runs. Will be interesting to see what the final outcome will be.

    Edited by Gord
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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

    I think that you and others who replied to my earlier post are misunderstanding me. I clearly said snow and sub zero temperatures should suffice to please uk cold fans but the 06z, a crazy outlier would be a deadly extreme for the uk. Normal for a continental climate, not for the mild maritime south of England. It would be dangerous for the vulnerable and a significant section of the general public lack the common sense to deal with such an event and would create even more problems. Thankfully the chances of it coming off are rather small.

    And you are missing my point. A substantial number on here have never experienced severe winter weather and the hardships involved. Perhaps it needs to be experienced to really know 'what they wish for'.

    It may be small (or not) on this occasion but it will come before long ... old Sol will see to that. Preparations go far beyond sitting in front of a screen, looking and drooling over charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    has it all gone pear shaped yet?

    I doubt we'll see any of the 12hrs run replicating this mornings epic run:sorry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

    And you are missing my point. A substantial number on here have never experienced severe winter weather and the hardships involved. Perhaps it needs to be experienced to really know 'what they wish for'.

    It may be small (or not) on this occasion but it will come before long ... old Sol will see to that. Preparations go far beyond sitting in front of a screen, looking and drooling over charts.

    Sorry. I get you now :) Would be interesting to see how those who are only used to drooling at charts cope ;) But I'm a kindly soul at heart and I'd be gladly helping anyone I could who was in trouble if the opportunity arose. The reality of extreme weather is unknown to many in the uk, completely agree.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    I know this kind of sanctimonious lecturing occurs every year but I really don't see the point - what people want has no bearing on what actually happens, and if it's going to happen it's going to happen. 

    During the 2006 heatwave, there were around 2,000 extra deaths attributed to the heat. The 2003 and 1976 heatwaves also saw a significant spike in deaths. It's unfortunate, but you can't prevent it from happening, nor should people be castigated for enjoying it. If January 2017 rivals 1963 in terms of cold - and it's very unlikely that it will - we'll just have to suck it up and cope the best we can. A lot of people on here would probably get fed up of it, but again - nothing we can do. My pipes froze in December 2010, and my boiler broke when we were getting sub-freezing highs. It was inconvenient, but meh - I managed. 

     

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    There is going to be serious emotive postings in the MOD thread this evening when the GFS 12z operational doesn't follow it's outlier sister into cold FI nirvana.

    Anyone expecting something similar is going to get trout slapped.  Cold and dry is the route I'm thinking still, which for me personally is fine.  

    Anyway, I'm heading over to watch the fun evolve.  Good luck to the moderators this evening, hope there are plenty on shift.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    There is going to be serious emotive postings in the MOD thread this evening when the GFS 12z operational doesn't follow it's outlier sister into cold FI nirvana.

    Anyone expecting something similar is going to get trout slapped.  Cold and dry is the route I'm thinking still, which for me personally is fine.  

    Anyway, I'm heading over to watch the fun evolve.  Good luck to the moderators this evening, hope there are plenty on shift.

    Yeah I was thinking the same thing, kinda don't want to look but can't help myself - knowing it's not going to be as good as the 6z.

    Hopefully not to much of a downgrade, allowing us to still have some hope we get the cold and snow we Winter model watchers crave for.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    5 minutes ago, AWD said:

    There is going to be serious emotive postings in the MOD thread this evening when the GFS 12z operational doesn't follow it's outlier sister into cold FI nirvana.

    Anyone expecting something similar is going to get trout slapped.  Cold and dry is the route I'm thinking still, which for me personally is fine.  

    Anyway, I'm heading over to watch the fun evolve.  Good luck to the moderators this evening, hope there are plenty on shift.

    lol, i'm expecting southerly winds and an early taste of spring

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    12 minutes ago, cheese said:

    I know this kind of sanctimonious lecturing occurs every year but I really don't see the point - what people want has no bearing on what actually happens, and if it's going to happen it's going to happen. 

    During the 2006 heatwave, there were around 2,000 extra deaths attributed to the heat. The 2003 and 1976 heatwaves also saw a significant spike in deaths. It's unfortunate, but you can't prevent it from happening, nor should people be castigated for enjoying it. If January 2017 rivals 1963 in terms of cold - and it's very unlikely that it will - we'll just have to suck it up and cope the best we can. A lot of people on here would probably get fed up of it, but again - nothing we can do. My pipes froze in December 2010, and my boiler broke when we were getting sub-freezing highs. It was inconvenient, but meh - I managed. 

     

    I think you're confusing being sanctimonious with being realistic and concerned. Sanctimonious means making a show of being morally superior. Being realistic about extreme weather is not that at all. But hey I'm not trying to start an argument with anyone and we're discussing one very unlikely to verify model output so maybe excitement and realism can coexist.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    I do feel there are exaggerations of the impacts/severity of the 06z by a few posts today but that's expected (just don't let the express read them!)

    It's not really comparable to 47/63 as that was 2+ months of it, though temps may be comparable to some of those winter's spells

    The event would not be 'catastrophic' for us or trump anything in the 20th or 21st century IMO. Yes it gets very cold, and yes some minus double digit minima show even quite widely with well below freezing maxima, but we had that in 2010 and in other spells and survived. Snow is shown in the range of inches for many places, not feet and feet of the stuff. Again, we've had that many times before. (of course it could have got deeper after T384 on that run)

    Yes, it would be a severe spell, and would bring disruption and sensationalist news headlines, but we would survive..lol. 

    Although of course not worth worrying about that run let alone it's specifics yet.
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Lol you can almost hear the frantic clicking going on...

    A lot of fun especially for someone like me who has tried and failed to read the charts correctly!

    Whatever happens I think as long as you learn something along the way it's all good.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    BBC weather just tweeted re possible prolonged cold spell... interesting! 

    IMG_0159.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    1 hour ago, shotski said:

    Is it not viable then ?

    I would also argue that no "trend" is reliable but is in fact just a trend.  

    Think you may be getting a bit hung up on the word trend,switch it to a plausible outcome. I agree a general "trend" can be a signal of how things play out but my point was that far out it is just to remote to be taken even seriously and i'm a massive cold fan!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    i think i will hold back getting excited just a little longer. after all we live in the uk and if it could go tits up then it will.

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

    Whatever the runs bring us the next few days at least it wont be flooding or atlantic storms. This is rather exciting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    So because the ukmo is poor some people are dismissing what the gfs shows! Some have short memories on here that's all I can say as I can remember past winter's where both the ukmo & ecm were showing cold outlooks and the gfs was having none of it and low and behold the gfs was right. 

    So does that mean the gfs is right this time, nobody knows but the weather, we'll find out soon enough but I do find it amusing that a few posters think the gfs is wrong because the ukmo isn't on board with the cold looking charts. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brinscall, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, frosty autumns and snowy winters
  • Location: Brinscall, Lancashire

    "Positive thinking is more than just a tagline. It changes the way we behave. And I firmly believe that when I am positive, it not only makes me better, but it also makes those around me better.” 

    — Harvey Mackay

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    just about decent, need shift west though really, need dark blue thicknesses for snow off N'lys, just about okay

    hgt500-1000.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    3 hours ago, shotski said:

    GEFS mean, GFS Parallel and GFS operation all at t-192. Now that's a trend!!!image.jpg

    image.jpg

    image.jpgimage.jpg 

    GFS 12z for comparison, a definite trend IMHO image.jpg 

    :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    2 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Sidney is poised awaiting the ecm - keep still my beating heart. I thought the Churchill sign unnecessary

    Sid.jpg

    Trouble is Sidney has a dark side and he's hoping for happier times!! 

    image.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Bonkers output today - why could each be so drastically apart OK it's FI but......

    +222 such a difference in two runs.

     

    uksnowrisk.png

    uksnowrisk2.png

    We live in hope.....

    h500slp.png

     

     

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