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Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted
21 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester GFS 0z rainfall ensembles were not that wet for this area. No one ensemble actually went below 990mb as well. 

 

Today's GFS 0z ensembles look even drier. Now only one ensemble went below 1000mb. Seems to be a slow trend towards increasing extension of anticyclonicity at the moment.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Lovely cool bright weather and people are still bitching and moaning. You'd need to have a climate like Oymyakon to keep some people happy in here. :rofl:

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Lovely cool bright weather and people are still gfuqhgfpjhing and moaning. You'd need to have a climate like Oymyakon to keep some people happy in here. :rofl:

Lol I know, right?! Absolutely lovely sunny cold and people saying they are 'bored of high pressure'. It's only just arrived.....sadly the utter obsession with snow never matches up to the reality of our maritime climate and geographic position as a nation.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
8 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Lol I know, right?! Absolutely lovely sunny cold and people saying they are 'bored of high pressure'. It's only just arrived.....sadly the utter obsession with snow never matches up to the reality of our maritime climate and geographic position as a nation.

Well said!

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It's funny how the winter season and the run up to it brings out the "experts" with their analyses of the models. Why aren't they posting all year round? Weather is all year round, model watching is all year round.

Summer is always more or less okay, never too cold and with nice long days but winter on the other hand can be extremely beautiful, nice and fun or incredibly horrible wet cold dreary  and dark

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Yes @Frosty. shorts/flip flops out on 06Z, following on from 00Z, expect ECM to go same way on 12Z

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Packs Rookie

Packs

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
Posted

Meteovista seem to always be on the money - all the hype on here about cold and snow last week for this weekend didn't show at all on their forecasts.

According to their website (translated from Dutch):

MeteoVista uses multiple weather models in combination with a MOS technique. Weather models calculate by means of physical processes, for a certain period, the state of the atmosphere. There are models that do this for the world and models that do this for a certain region, such as Western Europe. The expectation of Meteovista is achieved by use of both global and regional weather models. The number used weather models will be expanded in 2015.

MOS stands for Model Output Statistics. A form of statistics applied to improve the forecast of 'normal' weather models. Metdeze technique, the output of the various weather models is constantly matched aanwaarnemingen. This will each location the best forecast parameters (predictors) out of the weather models. This expectation is optimized vervolgensnog once corrected based on statistics from similar weather conditions suit the past. This at the local level provides a much better than weersverwachtingop for example, the immediate data from a single physical weather model.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Packs said:

Meteovista seem to always be on the money - all the hype on here about cold and snow last week for this weekend didn't show at all on their forecasts.

According to their website (translated from Dutch):

MeteoVista uses multiple weather models in combination with a MOS technique. Weather models calculate by means of physical processes, for a certain period, the state of the atmosphere. There are models that do this for the world and models that do this for a certain region, such as Western Europe. The expectation of Meteovista is achieved by use of both global and regional weather models. The number used weather models will be expanded in 2015.

MOS stands for Model Output Statistics. A form of statistics applied to improve the forecast of 'normal' weather models. Metdeze technique, the output of the various weather models is constantly matched aanwaarnemingen. This will each location the best forecast parameters (predictors) out of the weather models. This expectation is optimized vervolgensnog once corrected based on statistics from similar weather conditions suit the past. This at the local level provides a much better than weersverwachtingop for example, the immediate data from a single physical weather model.

"This expectation is optimized vervolgensnog" :unsure2:

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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted
Just now, Yarmy said:

"This expectation is optimized vervolgensnog" :unsure2:

Is that what has MO contingent in its throes?                                                                                                                                                                                                     

 

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Is that what has MO contingent in its throes?                                                                                                                                                                                                     

 

If only they constantly matched aanwaarnemingen, it would be much better than weersverwachtingop.

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted
1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

If only they constantly matched aanwaarnemingen, it would be much better than weersverwachtingop.

Typical anti-agw pontificating. Expected better, frankly.

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

"This expectation is optimized vervolgensnog" :unsure2:

The translation is actually pretty good, except something seemed have gone wrong with parsing text and some words seem to have been stuck together, like space went missing and remain untranslated ;)

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 hour ago, -uksnow- said:

IT: Those are the 00z ensembles, not sure when it will update to 12z 

EDIT 2: No, the dream is over, It says London on the graph but the Lat and Long remain on the placement of the curser - Nearest i can get the cursor to us is Switzerland, still, guess we can have a look at Eastern Europes cold instead then... 

If you look closely, underneath the map..  Available for : Albania,Austria,Bosnia,Bulgaria,Croatia,FYROM,Greece,Hungary,Italy,Malta,Moldavia,Montenegro,Romania,Slovenia,Switzerland phil_15.gif

 

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted

well if the GFS 18z is right we could well have a hosepipe ban in january unheard of as its bone dry from start to finish it could well take us back to the early 80s where it was so cold and frosty we had to defrost the diesel from our dump trucks and other heavy machines by setting fires below them in the mornings to defrost and that lasted 6 weeks is another one of these on the cards

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Frost HoIIow Accomplished

Frost HoIIow

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Posted
15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

It's funny how the winter season and the run up to it brings out the "experts" with their analyses of the models. Why aren't they posting all year round? Weather is all year round, model watching is all year round.

Maybe they're an organised rabble hired by the proprietor of this website Paul to liven things up at this time of year - more internet traffic? wonder how much he pays the Murr man? :pardon:joking aside makes you wonder what they are doing for the rest of the year though, without sounding like a stalker some accounts are not active for 6 months or more..... or maybe it's none of my business what they are up to during their sabbaticals. :unsure2:

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

CFS is being really naughty.

cfs-0-714.png?12 cfs-2-714.png?12

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted

Well it's not quite winter yet but it looks like it to me outside ! Cold ( -6) jacks been a busy boy. 

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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

The models are starting to grate on me now, they've shown near enough the same thing for about a week now, boring, and its also a cloudy high up here.

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
Just now, I Cumbria Marra I said:

The models are starting to grate on me now, they've shown near enough the same thing for about a week now, boring, and its also a cloudy high up here.

Ditto, model borefest. We've had quite a few nice hard frosts in the last week or so, with some lasting through the day in the shade despite the sun, and building to the point when it was dark you'd think there was a slight covering of snow. Now though, varying between 2-8C under a sheet of grey cloud...ZZZZzzzz...

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Fabulous winter weather here, -4C overnight and sunny skies by day. Perfect :D

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