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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

swifts have gone
lilies have finished
jasmine has finished
buddlia will be finishing soon
nights drawing in

and the heat looks like its departing by wednesday... with no real indication itll return anytime soon

with a deep atlantic low heading our way for next weekend, lets face it... summer looks like being over.

Genuine question; have the background signals that you self and others said looked for good for more heat now changed or flipped(if that's possible) like the models often do?

Next Wednesday is only the 8th august.

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38 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

swifts have gone
lilies have finished
jasmine has finished
buddlia will be finishing soon
nights drawing in

and the heat looks like its departing by wednesday... with no real indication itll return anytime soon

with a deep atlantic low heading our way for next weekend, lets face it... summer looks like being over.

Over in what sense? Are you suggesting it’s going to be wet and windy from Wednesday all the way through to the end of August?

Its possible that warmer weather could return again after next weekend. We may not see 32c again, we we could still sunny weather with temperatures into the mid 20s, which is nothing to be sniffed at. 

There isn’t any way anyone could suggest that there is no chance of hitting 30c again either. 

We have 25 days of August still to run, and we can still get 30c in September. 

Edited by danm
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47 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

swifts have gone
lilies have finished
jasmine has finished
buddlia will be finishing soon
nights drawing in

and the heat looks like its departing by wednesday... with no real indication itll return anytime soon

with a deep atlantic low heading our way for next weekend, lets face it... summer looks like being over.

Very surprised at this post. You are normally very logical with your analysis.

The nights have been drawing in since the start of July. That’s the only reason I don’t like August. But to write the month off based on a couple of model runs?

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Hi everyone. Slightly alarmed to read all this doom and gloom talk this morning. Can anyone offer a glimmer of hope beyond next weekend? Whole of my family are in Cornwall for the week and feel like from reading the forums this morning we’re going to spend most of our time battening down the hatches and staring into the abyss!! Is this a LP that’s going to stall over us or can we at least take some hope that it will rattle through and we have Sunshine and showers? (Or better still it heads a bit further north and we may get some Azores ridging)

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3 minutes ago, valledym said:

Hi everyone. Slightly alarmed to read all this doom and gloom talk this morning. Can anyone offer a glimmer of hope beyond next weekend? Whole of my family are in Cornwall for the week and feel like from reading the forums this morning we’re going to spend most of our time battening down the hatches and staring into the abyss!! Is this a LP that’s going to stall over us or can we at least take some hope that it will rattle through and we have Sunshine and showers? (Or better still it heads a bit further north and we may get some Azores ridging)

Hundreds of thousands of people will be packing for Boardmasters, Boomtown and various other festivals next weekend too. 

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58 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Genuine question; have the background signals that you self and others said looked for good for more heat now changed or flipped(if that's possible) like the models often do?

Next Wednesday is only the 8th august.


i only look as far as the noaa 500mb charts - so 2 weeks. other then that its guessing based on past patterns.  all modelling suggests westerly average weather after wednesday. now its true these can change, but as i see it the trend is moving away from ridging domination to troughing. so based on current outputs theres no quick way back to heat. recent history of augusts suggest that unsettled is more likely then settled.

you know im a heat lover, so will be happy for these current outputs to be wrong and something hot emerge... so im not saying for certain summer (in terms of heat) is over, but its more likely then a return to settled/heat imho.

54 minutes ago, danm said:

Over in what sense? Are you suggesting it’s going to be wet and windy from Wednesday all the way through to the end of August?

Its possible that warmer weather could return again after next weekend. We may not see 32c again, we we could still sunny weather with temperatures into the mid 20s, which is nothing to be sniffed at. 

There isn’t any way anyone could suggest that there is no chance of hitting 30c again either. 

We have 25 days of August still to run, and we can still get 30c in September. 


nope.... im saying what the models are all showing, no return to high pressure/settled with lengthy spells of heat - in other words the pattern we have enjoyed over the last 6 weeks doesnt look like returning.

not bothered what temps we might get in autumn...summer isnt about temps alone, s my post hinted at.

41 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Very surprised at this post. You are normally very logical with your analysis.

The nights have been drawing in since the start of July. That’s the only reason I don’t like August. But to write the month off based on a couple of model runs?

yes but the drawing in of nights is more noticable now. not so much 'a couple of model runs' as explained above..

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The models are pretty naff post 144 though so it’s still foolish to write off the whole month. Rob, you know as well as anyone that the output a week or more away will change. It may not, of course,  yet to say there’s no chance of the heat returning is premature. 3 days time and they could be showing HP domination again.

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Can only say that I am really looking forward to the upcoming cool-down.:drinks:

Then again, with vast swathes of the Northern Hemisphere still 'enjoying' anomalous heat, who's to say that we'll not see more hot weather/plumes between now and the end of October? There's plenty of time yet!

One trough, over the UK, does not a disaster make??

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3 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Thundery showers from a normal low would be something we havn`t had this summer.

Rtavn1921.gif

Apart from July 27th/28th?

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3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

swifts have gone
lilies have finished
jasmine has finished
buddlia will be finishing soon
nights drawing in

and the heat looks like its departing by wednesday... with no real indication itll return anytime soon

with a deep atlantic low heading our way for next weekend, lets face it... summer looks like being over.

Thought summer finished 31st August ? writing off three weeks of summer at end of first week ,since when has any computer model been accurate after a few days ahead.People think the virtual weather world is the real one?

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Yep, a lot of people being overly pessimistic. We are on for a cooler and more unsettled spell, there’s no doubt about that. Despite what the models show in FI, you cannot write off the rest of the summer on the 5th of August. 

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Think of all the times we see the endless zonal train on the model output during winter. Things then pop up in the output at faulty short range. Plenty of time yet.

Edited by Djdazzle
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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Apart from July 27th/28th?

That was a hot Sly plume and we had nothing from that anyway.

I was saying about a coolish low slam bang on top like what ECM was showing on last night`s run.

 Or one from the past like this cracker but this was exceptional.Rrea00120040818.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9
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1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

That was a hot Sly plume and we had nothing from that anyway.

I'm just pointing out: "Thundery showers from a normal low would be something we havn`t had this summer" isn't true.

2018-08-05.thumb.png.8f67b0a82e1b9feac55c601ff8c87c74.png AVN_1_2018072800_1.thumb.png.7567d58c162cb8ae8bc6429058555c25.png

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2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:


i only look as far as the noaa 500mb charts - so 2 weeks. other then that its guessing based on past patterns.  all modelling suggests westerly average weather after wednesday. now its true these can change

But you have to acknowledge that this has been a year of unusual weather and synoptic anomalies thus far.

Using historical data to work out the near-term weather in 2018 is probably about as good as asking a passing bumblebee what he/she thinks will happen in two week’s time.

I look forward to the late summer as higher sea temps mean a better chance of imports from the continent, and it’s coming up to the end of the mad school holidays - which means cheaper trips abroad for us ???

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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So plenty of support for cooler and more unsettled weather for the vast majority (particularly the SW of England later this week), but to be honest the Met update longer term doesn't look too bad?

I can live with high teens/low twenties and mixtures of sunny spells and rain. Chuck in a few thunderstorms over the next few weeks and I'd have nothing to complain about for summer 2018!?

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5 hours ago, markyo said:

25c is more that hot enough for most,anything over that and yes activity outdoors,especially strenuous becomes uncomfortable many find.It's all about being comfortable on that we are all different. Personally anything over 25c and i stay indoors,just find it much more bearable.

And the majority of people will stay indoors if it's cool and wet, including children - that doesn't make them 'little darlings' as someone suggested. Let's put it this way - you see a lot more people outside when it's 30C and sunny than when it's 18C and raining. It's 27C and sunny today and once again lots of people outside enjoying themselves. If the current model output is correct then I will bet good money on this time next week having very few people outside. In fact, next weekend is currently looking very poor indeed (though all liable to change  and hopefully it does).

Edited by cheese
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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Thought summer finished 31st August ? writing off three weeks of summer at end of first week ,since when has any computer model been accurate after a few days ahead.People think the virtual weather world is the real one?

Mushy is different to most people in that his idea of summer is almost exclusively based around daylight and fauna. Personally, I couldn't care less if the swifts have gone or if the lilies have finished, because I am neither a bird nor a flower. I just care about the weather.

Edited by cheese
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14 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

I see the met and the more level headed posters on the mod thread going for a major pattern change with wind and rain for all. Lead us nicely into autumn.

Errrr? Don’t think so.

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47 minutes ago, cheese said:

you see a lot more people outside when it's 30C and sunny than when it's 18C and raining.

Well that's because its raining! Sunny and 18c will probably see just as many out if not more than 30c. Nobody could call sat in 18c in the sun cold or even cool! There is a change coming but nothing that could be called poor over several days. Just normal UK summer weather at last,long over due. Each day it could change,something sadly missing this summer.

Edited by markyo
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29 minutes ago, cheese said:

Mushy is different to most people in that his idea of summer is almost exclusively based around daylight and fauna. Personally, I couldn't care less if the swifts have gone or if the lilies have finished, because I am neither a bird nor a flower. I just care about the weather.

Summer to me is an assault on the senses, its not based on sunshine and heat alone. So whilst we can get late heat, its only part of the banquet that is true summer to me. 

Seeing the greenery and flora

Hearing the screech of the swifts

Smelling the scents of the blossoms

Feeling the warm air on bare skin..

Sorry guys, im alive ! Lol .  So even if we do get more heat, its only half of the meal. 

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