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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Just hoping for dry, calm and warm weather from the 09th-12th for the Bristol Balloon Fiesta and at least settled for a getaway to Wales 15th-20th August. 

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All this talk about the hot weather and sunshine returning... it is warm, yes, but a cloudfest here since last Saturday, really. Could be worse of course but a world away from the gloriousness we had in June.

Edited by rain_shadow
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looking like the'curse of august' is set to continue, with any hopes of a '95' style hot settled spell being dashed yet again as models are trending towards troughing establishing as the main driver. probably not as bad as many recent years, but after a splendid 6 week spell it ends yet again prematurely.

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18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

looking like the'curse of august' is set to continue, with any hopes of a '95' style hot settled spell being dashed yet again as models are trending towards troughing establishing as the main driver. probably not as bad as many recent years, but after a splendid 6 week spell it ends yet again prematurely.

Don’t give up just yet. We’ve been here before.

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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don’t give up just yet. We’ve been here before.

yes we have... every august for the last 15 years! lol.

i give up on summer anyway by mid august. it doesnt feel or smell the same as summer proper... its like boxing day is to a kid...

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4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yes we have... every august for the last 15 years! lol.

i give up on summer anyway by mid august. it doesnt feel or smell the same as summer proper... its like boxing day is to a kid...

It must be the worst run of poor Augusts since records began?

If the models are right, and it’s still a big if, it will be a valuable lesson in terms of how despite overwhelmingly strong signals, teleconnections, Met Office long rangers, the weather can still make fools of us all, including the pros.

But - I’m not at all convinced yet. There is still time for the HP next week to put up a fight, and for that LP to be pushed west. Would like to hear the thoughts of Tamara and Singularity before throwing the towel in.

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54 minutes ago, knocker said:

This morning's EPS 500mb 10-15 mean anomaly

10-15.thumb.png.91dd813533b0a201c678ee638ff5dcbb.png

 

That's an interesting 500mb chart - no big ridges or troughs anywhere in the NH. Just flat all the way round in a circle!

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2 hours ago, rain_shadow said:

All this talk about the hot weather and sunshine returning... it is warm, yes, but a cloudfest here since last Saturday, really. Could be worse of course but a world away from the gloriousness we had in June.

Role reversal! That long run of easterlies had most of the people on the east coast saying the same thing during June!

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4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It must be the worst run of poor Augusts since records began?

If the models are right, and it’s still a big if, it will be a valuable lesson in terms of how despite overwhelmingly strong signals, teleconnections, Met Office long rangers, the weather can still make fools of us all, including the pros.

But - I’m not at all convinced yet. There is still time for the HP next week to put up a fight, and for that LP to be pushed west. Would like to hear the thoughts of Tamara and Singularity before throwing the towel in.

I'd be very wary of anyone throwing the towel in. It is almost a certainty that it will cool down and possibly become more unsettled mid week next week, but anything beyond that is still very uncertain. It could end up cool and wet for the whole country, we could have a N/S split with reasonable warm and sunny weather further south or there is even still the possibility that after a few cooler, unsettled days the Azores high will ridge back in and bring warmer, sunnier weather for most of the country. 

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17 minutes ago, danm said:

I'd be very wary of anyone throwing the towel in. It is almost a certainty that it will cool down and possibly become more unsettled mid week next week, but anything beyond that is still very uncertain. It could end up cool and wet for the whole country, we could have a N/S split with reasonable warm and sunny weather further south or there is even still the possibility that after a few cooler, unsettled days the Azores high will ridge back in and bring warmer, sunnier weather for most of the country. 

Fair comments...The long, hot summer may well be drawing to a close - especially when considering that it is August, after all?

But does anyone know what it'll be like in, say, four weeks' time? In a word - no. Nobody knows! At that range, even the 'experts' are, to a large extent, reliant on (albeit educated) guesswork??

Edited by Ed Stone
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A lot of straw clutching going on here today,but a change is coming,no more protracted heat(thank god),warmth yes but no repeat or reload of the last 2 months,that ain't going to happen. More of a normal pleasant month coming up. Nothing wrong with that.

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2 minutes ago, markyo said:

A lot of straw clutching going on here today,but a change is coming,no more protracted heat(thank god),warmth yes but no repeat or reload of the last 2 months,that ain't going to happen. More of a normal pleasant month coming up. Nothing wrong with that.

Next week’s charts are not pleasant - even you couldn’t describe them as that.

Plenty of time for heat to return. I admit that the charts aren’t great but you’ve made a bold statement there.

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Writing summer off in the first week of August is like writing winter off in the first week of February. Everyone knows some of the best cold spells come in the second half of February.

As the 2nd half of February is to winter, 2nd half of August is past the peak of the season but it can still deliver the goods.

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Might come as a shock to the sheep up there  0c iso touching northern scotland.  Summer not yet over  but prob just taking a brief Sabbatical 

gfs-1-216.png?6

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26 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Writing summer off in the first week of August is like writing winter off in the first week of February. Everyone knows some of the best cold spells come in the second half of February.

As the 2nd half of February is to winter, 2nd half of August is past the peak of the season but it can still deliver the goods.

its a game of chances... whilst nothing is certain, the chances of more heat this summer must be remote or becoming unlikely as all indications are that we will not be ridge driven but trough driven. i guess the fact that is bloody august too kinda puts the mockers on it.

i would willingly write off winter in the first week of february IF the outlook was bartlet driven.. and the chances would be very much in my favour for doing so.  but augusts for the last 15 years have failed to deliver the goods and with no sign of ridging becoming dominant after this time next week and beyond - who would bet against it?

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Fair comments...The long, hot summer may well be drawing to a close - especially when considering that it is August, after all?

But does anyone know what it'll be like in, say, four weeks' time? In a word - no. Nobody knows! At that range, even the 'experts' are, to a large extent, reliant on (albeit educated) guesswork??

of course we dont know. but we can make an educated assessment based upon what the models/anomalies are predicting for the next 2 weeks. and the trend is clearly away from ridging.

i hope the current data is wrong and my pesimism is misplaced, wouldnt be the first time ! ?

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Fair comments...The long, hot summer may well be drawing to a close - especially when considering that it is August, after all?

But does anyone know what it'll be like in, say, four weeks' time? In a word - no. Nobody knows! At that range, even the 'experts' are, to a large extent, reliant on (albeit educated) guesswork??

Summer 1976 finished with a bang - literally.  The hot weather broke just after Late August Holiday.

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

A lot of straw clutching going on here today,but a change is coming,no more protracted heat(thank god),warmth yes but no repeat or reload of the last 2 months,that ain't going to happen. More of a normal pleasant month coming up. Nothing wrong with that.

Current model output suggests troughing over the UK with below average temperatures and rain. Nothing pleasant or normal about that at all. In years gone by this was supposed to be the height of summer and yet once again we are set to be cursed with weather that will ruin everyone's holidays. The UK tourism industry relies on good weather at this time of year to keep people at home instead of going abroad.

 

Edited by cheese
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