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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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8 minutes ago, Storme said:

Having lived 47 years in the SE and having now moved to the East Midlands, I appreciate the slightly lower temps here. Not everyone can deal with heat and it's always an argument causing debate. 

I too appreciate this cooler weather and as previously mentioned I will miss more outside stuff in heat than in cold or even warm and wet. 

It's nice to see extremes in weather. Surely that is why we are all here? But a blustery rainy day is still weather and a change is always interesting. 

Roll on Autumn 😁

Worryingly, for me at least, I have a feeling that - due to the robustness of the nearby continental heat-domes - this autumn might be remembered for rather too much hot, sticky sultriness...?💦

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Worryingly, for me at least, I have a feeling that - due to the robustness of the nearby continental heat-domes - this autumn might be remembered for rather too much hot, sticky sultriness...?💦

Don't worry Ed,the Atlantic will come to our rescue i'm sure!

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42 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not happy.....

so the heat is likely to return... but ordinary heat ... what i want to see, to see this summer out and rank it easily as one of the best ever... is a lengthy spell of 30c+ . yes i know the southeast has had it, but i havnt! i love these plumes, i love the heat, i can take the humidity...i like being warm! but plumes are transitory..

anyway, for me, summers nearly over regardless of the weather.

once the nights are drawing in and its dark by 9, once all the scented summer flowers are over, and my lilies are nearly done, buddlia will be in 2 weeks or so, and the swifts have gone... summers over.  i hate the death of nature in autumn.

Surprised at this post, I nearly always agree with you. I think areas further west did get that prolonged period of heat earlier, at the end of June into July. If you look at the records for Rostherne near Manchester Airport- between June 25th and July 8th, there were 9 days at 28C or above, and 6 days at 29C or above.

Only one day of those got over 30C but looking back in the archives, it was only really 1976 that had a prolonged period of consecutive days above 30C in these parts. 1995 didn't really manage it. 1983 didn't. 2003 had a couple but not a long period at once. Even the warmest month on record July 2006 didn't manage a huge number of consecutive days above 30C here.

Away from the SE, what you mention is almost unprecedented I think. Not saying it couldn't happen but it would take something truly exceptional to produce it.

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

 

Just want to comment on a certain individual, from the South Midlands, who regularly posts on the MOD thread, Evidently, in the coming few days, "we all win at some point". By all means, comment on the model runs but please keep your weather preferences, out of your posts. Come and try living and more to the point, sleeping, in S.E.London, in heatwave conditions!!

I certainly didn't "win", on Monday evening. I ended up in the Urgent Care Unit, at Sidcup's, Queen Marys' hospital. My wife, fraught with worry, that my blood pressure had gone through the roof!!Wouldn't have been good, after suffering a brain haemorrhage/stroke, in Sept.2015!! Fortunately, BP was fine and doctor thought I had a touch of heat exhaustion, caused by the extreme temperatures we've experienced, in the London area.

As other members have stated on here, they've felt quite ill, during these heatwave conditions.

So, I for one, will revel in today's refreshing rain and "howling" (pfft!!) wind. The "heat lovers" can resume their "orgasmic" mode, in a few days time!!

Regards,

Tom.  

My apologies if my post in the MOD was clumsily worded (I assume this was directed at me, though I wouldn't put Wantage in the midlands).

I hope you are OK.

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18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Worryingly, for me at least, I have a feeling that - due to the robustness of the nearby continental heat-domes - this autumn might be remembered for rather too much hot, sticky sultriness...?💦

You could be right. Let's hope not, though, eh? 

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Lovely refreshing rain and wind, arriving on my doorstep, now. But don't worry, "heat lovers", it's not a "Day After Tomorrow", scenario, just a mere "blip", in the heatwave conditions that we've endured in the south of the UK, during the Summer so far.

So don't worry, "heat lovers", the heat will be back, in a few days time, evidently.

Just want to comment on a certain individual, from the South Midlands, who regularly posts on the MOD thread, Evidently, in the coming few days, "we all win at some point". By all means, comment on the model runs but please keep your weather preferences, out of your posts. Come and try living and more to the point, sleeping, in S.E.London, in heatwave conditions!!

I certainly didn't "win", on Monday evening. I ended up in the Urgent Care Unit, at Sidcup's, Queen Marys' hospital. My wife, fraught with worry, that my blood pressure had gone through the roof!!Wouldn't have been good, after suffering a brain haemorrhage/stroke, in Sept.2015!! Fortunately, BP was fine and doctor thought I had a touch of heat exhaustion, caused by the extreme temperatures we've experienced, in the London area.

As other members have stated on here, they've felt quite ill, during these heatwave conditions.

So, I for one, will revel in today's refreshing rain and "howling" (pfft!!) wind. The "heat lovers" can resume their "orgasmic" mode, in a few days time!!

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

That howling wind caught my partners car door yesterday and slammed it on his thumb. After a night of no sleep due to the swelling and pain, I’ve had to take my partner to A&E this morning. He’s had X-rays so far and the swelling is being drained. Hopefully, no broken bones. 

Edited by stainesbloke

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

I suspect your are in the the minority with that one. Many have suffered,especially further south and i mean really suffered. A lengthy spell of that degree would be more than many could cope with now. Just a normal August would do fine,no extremes,no monsoon,no heatwave,just a re-balance which looks odds on apart from the Southern part of the country.


i dont care if im in a minority or not...its what id like to see...
 

1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

Hi Mushy  buddlias started flowering a week ago here and  rowan berries were also red a week ago.Lots of plant life more or less one month ahead now. Countryside has the look of early September here.


indeed, by mid august its clear autumns nearly here and often feels like it. the vegetation in particular has lost its summer verdent appearance and is tatty and browning (old leaves, damage, dead grass etc) .
 

33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Surprised at this post, I nearly always agree with you. I think areas further west did get that prolonged period of heat earlier, at the end of June into July. If you look at the records for Rostherne near Manchester Airport- between June 25th and July 8th, there were 9 days at 28C or above, and 6 days at 29C or above.

Only one day of those got over 30C but looking back in the archives, it was only really 1976 that had a prolonged period of consecutive days above 30C in these parts. 1995 didn't really manage it. 1983 didn't. 2003 had a couple but not a long period at once. Even the warmest month on record July 2006 didn't manage a huge number of consecutive days above 30C here.

Away from the SE, what you mention is almost unprecedented I think. Not saying it couldn't happen but it would take something truly exceptional to produce it.


indeed western areas fared better earlier on...i didnt..  we have hit 30c or over twice only.

yep i know its unusual, but this year we have a real chance - theres a lot of heat over iberia, i dont think the models are a million miles away from producing it... plumes though are too transitory, if the high holds to our east and theres troughing to our southwest in a static or pretty static synoptic pattern - there no reason why we shouldnt get several days of widespread 30c+ instead of a 24-36 hour plume. :)

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Lovely refreshing rain and wind, arriving on my doorstep, now. But don't worry, "heat lovers", it's not a "Day After Tomorrow", scenario, just a mere "blip", in the heatwave conditions that we've endured in the south of the UK, during the Summer so far.

So don't worry, "heat lovers", the heat will be back, in a few days time, evidently.

Just want to comment on a certain individual, from the South Midlands, who regularly posts on the MOD thread, Evidently, in the coming few days, "we all win at some point". By all means, comment on the model runs but please keep your weather preferences, out of your posts. Come and try living and more to the point, sleeping, in S.E.London, in heatwave conditions!!

I certainly didn't "win", on Monday evening. I ended up in the Urgent Care Unit, at Sidcup's, Queen Marys' hospital. My wife, fraught with worry, that my blood pressure had gone through the roof!!Wouldn't have been good, after suffering a brain haemorrhage/stroke, in Sept.2015!! Fortunately, BP was fine and doctor thought I had a touch of heat exhaustion, caused by the extreme temperatures we've experienced, in the London area.

As other members have stated on here, they've felt quite ill, during these heatwave conditions.

So, I for one, will revel in today's refreshing rain and "howling" (pfft!!) wind. The "heat lovers" can resume their "orgasmic" mode, in a few days time!!

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Due to type of work i do we are trained and train all staff who need it  on the dangers of heat exhaustion/stroke/dehydration. Been doing the job nearly 30 years,last 12 months(twice in current hot spell) once prior been taken ill due the heat. 2 A&E visits,both times got a deserved ticking off. I should have known better. But it does creep up on you,feeling the symptoms means your to late to quickly remedy it. Hope things have improved,i know exactly what you've been through,not nice at all.

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3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

dont care if im in a minority or not...its what id like to see.

Fair enough,each to their own.

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I'm sorry to hear that sb, hope there are no broken bones. It was really nice to feel such a refreshing breeze, yesterday.

Just about to take a walk up the shops, in jeans, rather than shorts and that hasn't happened for a while.

Regards,

Tom.

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2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

What a depressing miserable day. Hopefully the last time we see rain before September.

If we have another four week drought, foof prices over the next few months will be high.  If you think you might be likely to moan at paying more at the supermarket, you might want to change your opinion on this rainfall.🙄

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

I suspect your are in the the minority with that one. Many have suffered,especially further south and i mean really suffered. A lengthy spell of that degree would be more than many could cope with now. Just a normal August would do fine,no extremes,no monsoon,no heatwave,just a re-balance which looks odds on apart from the Southern part of the country.

Not sure he’s in a minority, a term least on this forum. 

We have one month left of summer before 6 months of cold. So would love to see some more real heat before Autumn sets in. 

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9 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If we have another four week drought, foof prices over the next few months will be high.  If you think you might be likely to moan at paying more at the supermarket, you might want to change your opinion on this rainfall.🙄

Assuming you are buying homegrown fruit and vegetable though. No good rain here and drought everywhere else in Europe, not all our fruit and vegetable comes form the UK.

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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Assuming you are buying homegrown fruit and vegetable though. No good rain here and drought everywhere else in Europe, not all our fruit and vegetable comes form the UK.

True, and, if one economist has his way, farming in Britain will become extinct anyway. 

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25 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If we have another four week drought, foof prices over the next few months will be high.  If you think you might be likely to moan at paying more at the supermarket, you might want to change your opinion on this rainfall.🙄

doesnt bother me if some food prices go up as a result of hot weather.  if thats a consequence then so be it...id sooner pay higher prices because of heat rather then because of too much rain/flooding spoiling the crops as in previous years.

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13 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

True, and, if one economist has his way, farming in Britain will become extinct anyway. 

gawd... lets hope he isnt right. that would be completely disatrous for the environment... assuming hes not advocating turning the countryside into one huge wildlife reserve (that would benefit by sympathetic farming)

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53 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

indeed western areas fared better earlier on...i didnt..  we have hit 30c or over twice only.

yep i know its unusual, but this year we have a real chance - theres a lot of heat over iberia, i dont think the models are a million miles away from producing it... plumes though are too transitory, if the high holds to our east and theres troughing to our southwest in a static or pretty static synoptic pattern - there no reason why we shouldnt get several days of widespread 30c+ instead of a 24-36 hour plume. :)

I see your point. Fingers crossed something will develop before the middle of August. There is a feeling that this year is our chance to get one of those really historic spells with temperatures over 30C for days on end. I'm actually liking the look of the GFS 06Z- a step in the right direction in terms of proper heat building.

I do agree about August to an extent- I do see the first half as still 'summer proper' but the 2nd half does feel different with shorter days and generally a feel that things are moving towards autumn. That said, there is still great potential for heat in the 2nd half of the month, as in 1995.

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50 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

I'm sorry to hear that sb, hope there are no broken bones. It was really nice to feel such a refreshing breeze, yesterday.

Just about to take a walk up the shops, in jeans, rather than shorts and that hasn't happened for a while.

Regards,

Tom.

No broken bones, but there’s a dent in the thumb bone, ouch. They had to burn 3 holes in the nail to relieve pressure. Pain is still pretty bad so I got some codeine to help. That should knock him out for a few hours, lol. Not really a day to be out and about, anyway. Nice to see useful rain but that vile wind is back (not as strong as yesterday, yet). Hope you feel better in the cooler temperatures?

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We should hope for a settled warm August with some more rainfall. It would be nice to have a decent August for once but doesnt need to be record breaking for lack of rainfall or heat. We may well come to miss the lovely weather we have had. I and probably others have a feeling that if this current pattern holds for many more months we will have to endure a severe winter (not sure what the projections are for Autumn/Winter yet). Thing is it has been the type of summer where a warm, settled but not especially hot airmass has resided over the UK at the time of maximum solar output and hence consistent mid to high 20s day after day. It doesnt technically have to be an extremely cold airmass to create a severe winter in the UK at the right time over late Novemeber to late January. So if we do experience patterns similar to this summer in the form of a continental influence, we could be in trouble with regard to very low temperatures this winter. Not good for farming with the extremes of seasons or the economical aspect for people everyday lives - food prices, energy bills, dangerous roads

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26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

doesnt bother me if some food prices go up as a result of hot weather.  if thats a consequence then so be it...id sooner pay higher prices because of heat rather then because of too much rain/flooding spoiling the crops as in previous years.

Very strange view. Not sure on the logic on that one😂

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The EPS anomalies still looking at the high pressure riding NE to be influential in the medium but perhaps tending to a N/S split and generally temps still above average

1619453445_500a.thumb.png.8811137ab8c718c13e5d96540db90325.png689522200_850a.thumb.png.90fbad9f982653ff1ae9497fec06a106.png

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25 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

No broken bones, but there’s a dent in the thumb bone, ouch. They had to burn 3 holes in the nail to relieve pressure. Pain is still pretty bad so I got some codeine to help. That should knock him out for a few hours, lol. Not really a day to be out and about, anyway. Nice to see useful rain but that vile wind is back (not as strong as yesterday, yet). Hope you feel better in the cooler temperatures?

Best wishes to your partner.  My dad did something similar back when he was at work,so I know how paindul that can be.

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First weekend that i've not had the aircon running! Dreading the cost but having a house at 22ºC and not a tiny bedroom at 39ºC makes it so worth it, even if it took 6 years to get a heatwave strong enough to properly use it.

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Quote:

"My apologies if my post in the MOD was clumsily worded (I assume this was directed at me, though I wouldn't put Wantage in the midlands).

I hope you are OK."

I'm fine thank you MP. So you wouldn't class yourself, as South Midlands?

Just got back from walk, to the shops, still spit-spotting with rain. Could've got away with shorts still, although there's a fresh wind, still feels quite clammy, to me. Nice to see, wet pavements, again and the gardens look like they need a good drink.

Regards,

Tom.

 

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53 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

gawd... lets hope he isnt right. that would be completely disatrous for the environment... assuming hes not advocating turning the countryside into one huge wildlife reserve (that would benefit by sympathetic farming)

I'm trying to find where I read this - I'm pretty sure the group is Economists for Free Trade and the proposal was to allow all but the largest farming groups go bust, then employ a percentage of those unemployed farmers to manage rural areas for wildlife.  While it should be great news for the environment if done properly, the resultant economic collapse of rural areas will see a flight to the cities as people from rural areas need to find employment, thereby possibly rivalling the Medieval period for the rate of disappearance of rural communities.  Suffice it to say that this would be predicated on importing most of our food and would therefore reduce the impact of future droughts like the one we've been having in the south and east.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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