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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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3 hours ago, cheese said:

Exactly - we have had one day of 30C+ temps in Leeds, hardly extreme in any sense. Most other days have been around 24-28C.

 

To be fair though....you are in Leeds! It’s usually the case that in any hot spell the SE tends to fare best the majority of the time. Temps of 24-28c are still 3-7c above normal, it’s the same as London getting 27-31c, which is on the whole what has been generally happening.

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52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

To be fair though....you are in Leeds! It’s usually the case that in any hot spell the SE tends to fare best the majority of the time. Temps of 24-28c are still 3-7c above normal, it’s the same as London getting 27-31c, which is on the whole what has been generally happening.

1995 had 8 days over 30C in Leeds so we are well short of that figure. My post wasn't a moan either - just remarking at the consistent nature of the warmth without any extremes. 31C is our highest tempetature this year, which is the same as the highest temps of 2017, 2016, 2013 and 2011 and of course lower than 2015. A yearly high of 30-31C is really pretty ordinary (although admittedly usually the result of short-lived plumes).

Edited by cheese

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The difference a day makes. Today feels and smells so much better. This smell is Petrichor,something chemists have been trying to mimic without success. Everything just feels so much cleaner,the air especially. Gone is that muck we've endured for so long.  Thankfully nothing showing that would replicate the last several weeks,first day of a pleasant summer! People won't suffer in these conditions,wildlife will recover,win win.

Edited by markyo

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3 minutes ago, markyo said:

The difference a day makes. Today feels and smells so much better. This smell is Petrichor,something chemists have been trying to mimic without success. Everything just feels so much cleaner,the air especially. Gone is that muck we've endured for so long.  Thankfully nothing showing that would replicate the last several weeks,first day of a pleasant summer! People won't suffer in these conditions,wildlife will recover,win win.

I’m missing the heat already. Hopefully get a bit of sun at least today and miss the worst of the rain today. All great summers have a blip, and I’m looking forward to the heat returning. The models are starting to trend towards a hotter outcome again. Bring it on.

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8 hours ago, cheese said:

1995 had 8 days over 30C in Leeds so we are well short of that figure. My post wasn't a moan either - just remarking at the consistent nature of the warmth without any extremes. 31C is our highest tempetature this year, which is the same as the highest temps of 2017, 2016, 2013 and 2011 and of course lower than 2015. A yearly high of 30-31C is really pretty ordinary (although admittedly usually the result of short-lived plumes).

How many days has Doncaster & Hull had 30c or more as Doncaster tends to be the warmest place in Yorkshire being in a valley, I saw Hull beat it to 32c the other day?

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8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m missing the heat already. Hopefully get a bit of sun at least today and miss the worst of the rain today. All great summers have a blip, and I’m looking forward to the heat returning. The models are starting to trend towards a hotter outcome again. Bring it on.

In Star Trek you would certainly be a Klingon....every slight hope,you Klingon to it😂

But seriously,you don't want to see folk suffer,taken ill,die due to heat do you? See wildlife suffer? See farmers livelihoods suffer?

Edited by markyo

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2 minutes ago, markyo said:

In Star Trek you would certainly be a Klingon....every slight hope,you Klingon to it😂

But seriously,you don't want to see folk suffer,taken ill,die due to heat do you? See wildlife suffer? See farmers livelihoods suffer?

 No but no amount of wishing changes any of that either way.

i think there’s more than a Klingon hope of heat returning! I’d say it was very likely.

August is primed and ready to deliver the icing on the cake for this amazing summer!

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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

 No but no amount of wishing changes any of that either way.

i think there’s more than a Klingon hope of heat returning! I’d say it was very likely.

August is primed and ready to deliver the icing on the cake for this amazing summer!

Oh dear,there's no hope for you is there.....

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10 minutes ago, markyo said:

In Star Trek you would certainly be a Klingon....every slight hope,you Klingon to it😂

But seriously,you don't want to see folk suffer,taken ill,die due to heat do you? See wildlife suffer? See farmers livelihoods suffer?

In fairness all models suggest a potential warm up later next week and beyond as the extreme heat over Spain tries to push north. Either way the cyclonic conditions look short lived.

Still it is actually quite nice going out this morning, it is still warm here with a stiff SW wind. 

The hottest summer on record looks quite possible with August likely to start off dry and see temperatures above average, it certainly worth backing for the sheer noteworthyness. I would certainly be on the side of hoping for a cold february after a sub zero CET in both December and January for instance.

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33 minutes ago, markyo said:

The difference a day makes. Today feels and smells so much better. This smell is Petrichor,something chemists have been trying to mimic without success. Everything just feels so much cleaner,the air especially. Gone is that muck we've endured for so long.  Thankfully nothing showing that would replicate the last several weeks,first day of a pleasant summer! People won't suffer in these conditions,wildlife will recover,win win.

Have you not seen the output today? Looking pretty likely that we will be back in the high 20s/low 30s again in a weeks time! For those who enjoy it a bit less toasty, make the most of the coming days, it could be fairly short lived...

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Of course days and days of 35C would become tiresome. But like @Captain Shortwave alludes to, it’s the records that interest me. First significant rain in 2 months - that will long live in the memory!

A rubbish August would really take the shine off this summer. Fortunately, that doesn’t look like being the case.

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12 hours ago, johnholmes said:

But how many years, say in the last 20, has values of 24-28 C occurred for so long.

Not arguing just asking.

Here is has to be 2006 or perhaps 1996, not had chance to check my weather records.

 

surely 1996 was 22 years ago ....lol..

didnt we get as many in 2003? we have certainly beat 2013, and possibly 2006. i think so far its been the best since 1995.

8 hours ago, cheese said:

1995 had 8 days over 30C in Leeds so we are well short of that figure. My post wasn't a moan either - just remarking at the consistent nature of the warmth without any extremes. 31C is our highest tempetature this year, which is the same as the highest temps of 2017, 2016, 2013 and 2011 and of course lower than 2015. A yearly high of 30-31C is really pretty ordinary (although admittedly usually the result of short-lived plumes).


i know what you mean, this 'heatwave' would be 5 weeks old tomorrow. for such a lengthy spell of 'hot' weather (which in reality saw quite a few sub 24c days) it is unusual not to see a spell of several consecutive days of temps above 28c.

they have been odd ones or twos, for most of the country but not a lengthier spell such hot spells usually or historically afford us.

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26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

 No but no amount of wishing changes any of that either way.

i think there’s more than a Klingon hope of heat returning! I’d say it was very likely.

August is primed and ready to deliver the icing on the cake for this amazing summer!

Are you Nathan Rao from the Daily Express? 😋

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15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Have you not seen the output today? Looking pretty likely that we will be back in the high 20s/low 30s again in a weeks time! For those who enjoy it a bit less toasty, make the most of the coming days, it could be fairly short lived...

We will see. Just saying a repeat of the extended conditions we have had is very unlikely. Especially in my area thankfully😉 

Edited by markyo

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26 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In fairness all models suggest a potential warm up later next week and beyond as the extreme heat over Spain tries to push north. Either way the cyclonic conditions look short lived.

Still it is actually quite nice going out this morning, it is still warm here with a stiff SW wind. 

The hottest summer on record looks quite possible with August likely to start off dry and see temperatures above average, it certainly worth backing for the sheer noteworthyness. I would certainly be on the side of hoping for a cold february after a sub zero CET in both December and January for instance.

Agree totally,end of this week the rise in temps will happen,to the scale and longevity we have just had? Nope,highly unlikely in my view. To have a reload of the same conditions in a maritime based climate the like of which we have would be highly unusual. Low to mid 20's showing till mid August further North i feel. Further south yes something warmer,record breaker,not a chance.

Edited by markyo

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9 minutes ago, markyo said:

Agree totally,end of this week the rise in temps will happen,to the scale and longevity we have just had? Nope,highly unlikely in my view. To have a reload of the same conditions in a maritime based climate the like of which we have would be highly unusual. Low to mid 20's showing till mid August further North i feel. Further south yes something warmer,record breaker,not a chance.

That should suit most of us, I’d be very happy with mid-high 20’s here for August. As long as we get plenty more sunshine. Looks like it’ll warm up again after Monday across much of the UK.

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56 minutes ago, markyo said:

Oh dear,there's no hope for you is there.....

I’ve been saying that for years! 😜

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30 minutes ago, markyo said:

Agree totally,end of this week the rise in temps will happen,to the scale and longevity we have just had? Nope,highly unlikely in my view. To have a reload of the same conditions in a maritime based climate the like of which we have would be highly unusual. Low to mid 20's showing till mid August further North i feel. Further south yes something warmer,record breaker,not a chance.

With the huge pool of heat to our south, the saying "don't tempt fate" comes to mind.

35c is possible even in early September for instance.

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42 minutes ago, markyo said:

Agree totally,end of this week the rise in temps will happen,to the scale and longevity we have just had? Nope,highly unlikely in my view. To have a reload of the same conditions in a maritime based climate the like of which we have would be highly unusual. Low to mid 20's showing till mid August further North i feel. Further south yes something warmer,record breaker,not a chance.

I think the fine weather will continue for the first 2 weeks of August then, whoosh early Autumn.

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13 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

With the huge pool of heat to our south, the saying "don't tempt fate" comes to mind.

35c is possible even in early September for instance.

Yep. Only in 2016, 34.4C was reached on September 14th!

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57 minutes ago, markyo said:

Agree totally,end of this week the rise in temps will happen,to the scale and longevity we have just had? Nope,highly unlikely in my view. To have a reload of the same conditions in a maritime based climate the like of which we have would be highly unusual. Low to mid 20's showing till mid August further North i feel. Further south yes something warmer,record breaker,not a chance.

There’s every chance of the very high temps will return because the synoptics are there for it. If a maritime climate can deliver 2 months without rain, then it’s very possible.

Edited by Djdazzle

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12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yep. Only in 2016, 34.4C was reached on September 14th!

yes I remember that, though with a lot less daylight and weaker sun, it wasn't the same as a June or July 34c to me anyway.

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2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

yes I remember that, though with a lot less daylight and weaker sun, it wasn't the same as a June or July 34c to me anyway.

Agreed. And dark too early!

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56 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

With the huge pool of heat to our south, the saying "don't tempt fate" comes to mind.

35c is possible even in early September for instance.

Sorry,the nerd in me forgot say it was mathematically shorter odds of a reload of than earlier in summer. Not impossible by any means just very unlikely.

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41 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

There’s every chance of the very high temps will return because the synoptics are there for it. If a maritime climate can deliver 2 months without rain, then it’s very possible.

But the odds are lower,each week that goes by the longer those odds......which i am sooooo happy about. First time in 2 months i've felt alive! So much more energy.

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