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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

hi

john holmes did the stats when he studied them a few years ago now. so they are not an 'official' public thing, it was a personal endeavour.

but ive looked at what hes said, and am still learning to interpret them properly, im very happy with their success rate even though ive written nothing down.  i view these charts first, and then view the ops. i then believe the ops closest to what i understand the anoms are predicting. this method has been very accurate for the timeframe concerned (when the anoms are consistent). i do a daily blog for a local fb site after the admin for the fb read what was a blog for my family/friends. this has proved to be (embarrassingly) successful and the above method is the one i employ to create this blog. there is a market for predicting beyond the 3-4 days the bbc/media cater for. i have between 1k-1.5k views per day..

(i do make it clear that im no wizard, and all im doing in commontating on freely available info in the public domaine).

so employing this method does, i suggest, act as a good guide for the ops.... see, even now you quote the current ops, and what you said is correct, but they are unlikely to be correct in themselves for the time period in question. because of the way the ops 'jump about' it makes accuracy harder to nail.

interestingly, the pattern the anoms are consistently predicting but the ops are largely ignoring, is the same one tamara has been predicting, western troughing/eastern ridging, allowing for more 'plume' , southeasterly incursions.

finally, lol, ive found that when theres a stand off between the ops and anoms, as in the current case where the ops refuse to recognise the troughing over the azores (pretty crucial to further extreme heat) , its the anoms that 'win' as the ops switch to agree  8/10 . the ops have switched as little as 72 hours away after a week of denial. 

so its not a given, but % wise the anoms spotting the coming mean upper flow has a very high accuracy rate.

 

Thanks for your reply and thoughts. Of course if they are more successful than any combination of model products then there has to be another form of input into them.
I did quote the ops I guess though the ECM has been consistent and gaining weight including from the GEFS mean now (although with variation in the ensembles as usual). Of course they could change again to what the anomaly charts suggest. Only one way to find out.

 

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41 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Thanks for your reply and thoughts. Of course if they are more successful than any combination of model products then there has to be another form of input into them.
I did quote the ops I guess though the ECM has been consistent and gaining weight including from the GEFS mean now (although with variation in the ensembles as usual). Of course they could change again to what the anomaly charts suggest. Only one way to find out.

 

..... and the gfs 06z is inching much closer to the anomalies... is the gfs about to cave in and agree with them? lol.

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5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

..... and the gfs 06z is inching much closer to the anomalies... is the gfs about to cave in and agree with them? lol.

I think I might see things in a similar way to your good self, mushy, in that I tend to imagine the NWPMs see-sawing within the boundaries set by the anomalies...? They [the models] certainly stretch the boundaries of reality, from time to time...

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Glad to see no sign of any hot/very hot conditions returning anytime soon to UK shores on any of the models in the reliable time frame. Any return to hot conditions are at in the least 7 days away and even that is overly generous. The meto lastest update seems to have tempered return to hot conditions too.

Looking forward to some fresher conditions this weekend, with some wind and rain :-).

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1 hour ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Glad to see no sign of any hot/very hot conditions returning anytime soon to UK shores on any of the models in the reliable time frame. Any return to hot conditions are at in the least 7 days away and even that is overly generous. The meto lastest update seems to have tempered return to hot conditions too.

Looking forward to some fresher conditions this weekend, with some wind and rain :-).

We'll see, there's plenty of time for that to change still. The GFS 06Z is the most high pressure dominated run for a while and it looks hot enough in the south after Wednesday. Chart for Friday:

GFSOPUK06_180_17.png

30 degrees showing in London...and GFS usually underestimates.

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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

We'll see, there's plenty of time for that to change still. The GFS 06Z is the most high pressure dominated run for a while and it looks hot enough in the south after Wednesday. Chart for Friday:

GFSOPUK06_180_17.png

30 degrees showing in London...and GFS usually underestimates.

Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

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6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

Nasty London? Now now. 

Still good summer weather though?

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15 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

Play it down all you want, as you know you can often add 2C+ to those GFS predictions. That would give us 28C in Manchester which is rather hot in my book. 32C in London. And could be upgraded nearer the time.

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53 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Play it down all you want, as you know you can often add 2C+ to those GFS predictions. That would give us 28C in Manchester which is rather hot in my book. 32C in London. And could be upgraded nearer the time.

You want furnace temps I don't, simple as that really.

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regarding the noaas...

ive been on about the accuracy, and under the current set up believe more real heat is looking likely.

but of course its not black and white, they are very rarely completely wrong, few models are..

take the current set up for eg... they did predict on the 15th troughing to our west, ridging to our east... so basically they got it right. but where they are in error is predicting the depth of the atlantic trough thats going to spoil/relieve (delete as desired lol) and that impacts on the detail. so is that a story of successfully predicting the mean upper flow c12 days in advance? or are the cynics going to call it a 'failure'?.. 

me? im happy to call it pretty accurate, but am disappointed that this trough will be a bit deeper then anticipated because it might well impact on the recovery previously expected.

 

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1 hour ago, danm said:

Nasty London? Now now. 

Still good summer weather though?

Yes summer continues.

Re London, I refer to public transport especially the Central(horrifically hot)line and the pollution,

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2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yes summer continues.

Re London, I refer to public transport especially the Central(horrifically hot)line and the pollution,

Yes the tube is awful in this weather. 

The trains on the non-deep tube lines like the Metropolitan, Circle, District etc are all now air conditioned, but the deep tube lines like the central, Victoria, Piccadilly etc still aren’t and it’s oppressive to say the least.

Edited by danm

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

Yes the tube is awful in this weather. 

The trains on the non-deep tube lines like the Metropolitan, Circle, District etc are all now air conditioned, but the deep tube lines like the central, Victoria, Piccadilly etc still aren’t and it’s oppressive to say the least.

Nowt to worry about, chaps: that nice Mr Grayling has his finger firmly on the pulse?:help:

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1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

Looks about the same as the weather we had in late June, and people were still moaning about how hot it was then too. 

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5 minutes ago, cheese said:

Looks about the same as the weather we had in late June, and people were still moaning about how hot it was then too. 

Not me, June was lovely.

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Nowt to worry about, chaps: that nice Mr Grayling has his finger firmly on the pulse?:help:

Mr Grayling? reminds me of wing governor in bad girls

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Amplifying Bermuda ridge cuts off WAA. A stewards inquiry is being held

gfs_z500a_natl_30.thumb.png.248fae92dd5a9747ad318ff92c8c2294.png

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It's exactly like what happens in the Winter months on here. After a protracted cold spell folk search for every possible sign that their type of weather will continue even though logic dictates otherwise. The same is happening now,we are entering August,yes there will be hot spells,but nothing like what we have just endured,thankfully.  Washout,not a chance,return to a more pleasant Summer,yes most defiantly. Why would anybody want more?

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7 minutes ago, markyo said:

It's exactly like what happens in the Winter months on here. After a protracted cold spell folk search for every possible sign that their type of weather will continue even though logic dictates otherwise. The same is happening now,we are entering August,yes there will be hot spells,but nothing like what we have just endured,thankfully.  Washout,not a chance,return to a more pleasant Summer,yes most defiantly. Why would anybody want more?

Every chance of a return to 28-32C, which is what the vast majority of the country have achieved so far this year. Only the southeast and EA have really experienced the much higher temperatures today and yesterday.

 

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33 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Every chance of a return to 28-32C, which is what the vast majority of the country have achieved so far this year. Only the southeast and EA have really experienced the much higher temperatures today and yesterday.

 

And what a pay back, fantastic thunder storm here earlier .

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21 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

And what a pay back, fantastic thunder storm here earlier .

I hope you're happy. Not a drop of rain here yet.

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1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Every chance of a return to 28-32C, which is what the vast majority of the country have achieved so far this year. Only the southeast and EA have really experienced the much higher temperatures today and yesterday.

 

Exactly - we have had one day of 30C+ temps in Leeds, hardly extreme in any sense. Most other days have been around 24-28C.

 

Edited by cheese

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3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Exactly - we have had one day of 30C+ temps in Leeds, hardly extreme in any sense. Most other days have been around 24-28C.

 

But how many years, say in the last 20, has values of 24-28 C occurred for so long.

Not arguing just asking.

Here is has to be 2006 or perhaps 1996, not had chance to check my weather records.

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13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

But how many years, say in the last 20, has values of 24-28 C occurred for so long.

Not arguing just asking.

Here is has to be 2006 or perhaps 1996, not had chance to check my weather records.

Probably 06 or 95 here too.

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A return to the conditions of May/June would be most welcome here. Days on end of crystal skies, strong sunshine, low humdidty, a decent breeze and temperatures around 25C, with coolish nights. For the first time this week, the heat has made the weather unpleasant, and as usual, the "plume" has brought thunderstorms for a few and a breakdown.

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