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Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
    11 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Re anomalies

    Yet statistically they do spot the mean upper trends more successfully then the ops. I dont know how they do it either, maybe john holmes could enlighten us? He was the one who did the research. Im sure that if you check it for yourself over time youll reach the same conclusion. 

    Not sure if there are any verification stats available for them, but yes I understand them being better than individual ops, but not sure about taking all model guidance as a whole

    Though this morning all main models from what I can see don't show the heat.. if that's correct looks like the ECM operational has been on the mark and showing why it's the top verifying model. In situations like that I can't see the anomaly charts picking up the trend first, unless the brains behind any human input somehow anticipate this due to known bias/teleconnections etc (possible I suppose).

    The High looks quite weak on the ECM too.. Looks like the many charts/ensembles I saw bringing real or even record breaking even to the SW probably aren't going to occur ? 

    Edited by Evening thunder
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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    I have a feeling I personally saw the hottest temps of the summer yesterday at 36oC. Looking like cooling down but still looks like a great summery period ahead. As much as I hate the heat, to experience temps that high - you have to marvel at mother nature when she shows us her extremes.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The EPS mean anomalies are still singing from the same hymn sheet  The high pressure from the south becoming more influential as the block to the east erodes thus a continuation of good weather with temps above average. As previously mentioned the strong WAA only occurs if the the trough/high axis tightens but the former currently looks too far to the west. Personally I think this better option anyway

    trend.thumb.png.f52b05ca5863764620458ada1dcf5140.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 minute ago, Evening thunder said:

    Not sure if there are any verification stats available for them, but yes I understand them being better than individual ops, but not sure about taking all model guidance as a whole

    Though this morning all main models from what I can see don't show the heat.. if that's correct looks like the ECM operational has been on the mark and showing why it's the top verifying model. In situations like that I can't see the anomaly charts picking up the trend first, unless the brains behind any human input somehow anticipate this due to known bias/teleconnections etc (possible I suppose).

    The High looks quite weak on the ECM too.. Looks like the many charts/ensembles I saw bringing real or even record breaking even to the SW probably aren't going to occur ? 

    hi

    john holmes did the stats when he studied them a few years ago now. so they are not an 'official' public thing, it was a personal endeavour.

    but ive looked at what hes said, and am still learning to interpret them properly, im very happy with their success rate even though ive written nothing down.  i view these charts first, and then view the ops. i then believe the ops closest to what i understand the anoms are predicting. this method has been very accurate for the timeframe concerned (when the anoms are consistent). i do a daily blog for a local fb site after the admin for the fb read what was a blog for my family/friends. this has proved to be (embarrassingly) successful and the above method is the one i employ to create this blog. there is a market for predicting beyond the 3-4 days the bbc/media cater for. i have between 1k-1.5k views per day..

    (i do make it clear that im no wizard, and all im doing in commontating on freely available info in the public domaine).

    so employing this method does, i suggest, act as a good guide for the ops.... see, even now you quote the current ops, and what you said is correct, but they are unlikely to be correct in themselves for the time period in question. because of the way the ops 'jump about' it makes accuracy harder to nail.

    interestingly, the pattern the anoms are consistently predicting but the ops are largely ignoring, is the same one tamara has been predicting, western troughing/eastern ridging, allowing for more 'plume' , southeasterly incursions.

    finally, lol, ive found that when theres a stand off between the ops and anoms, as in the current case where the ops refuse to recognise the troughing over the azores (pretty crucial to further extreme heat) , its the anoms that 'win' as the ops switch to agree  8/10 . the ops have switched as little as 72 hours away after a week of denial. 

    so its not a given, but % wise the anoms spotting the coming mean upper flow has a very high accuracy rate.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    4 minutes ago, knocker said:

    The EPS mean anomalies are still singing from the same hymn sheet  The high pressure from the south becoming more influential as the block to the east erodes thus a continuation of good weather with temps above average. As previously mentioned the strong WAA only occurs if the the trough/high axis tightens but the former currently looks too far to the west. Personally I think this better option anyway

    trend.thumb.png.f52b05ca5863764620458ada1dcf5140.png

    ..... and that chart supports the long consistent noaa anomaly charts, troughing over the azores, this is missing off the current ops and is pretty important for the possible evolution of further heat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Model thread is confusing. People seeing 27C and sunny as "downgrades" yet getting excited for cloud and 40c. Keep thinking summer is over with all the downgrade talk when in reality the downgrades are better than the upgrades.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Depends what floats yer boat I guess - in any other summer we’d be raving about a few days in the mid to high 20s! This year it’s just unremarkable...mad times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    hi

    john holmes did the stats when he studied them a few years ago now. so they are not an 'official' public thing, it was a personal endeavour.

    but ive looked at what hes said, and am still learning to interpret them properly, im very happy with their success rate even though ive written nothing down.  i view these charts first, and then view the ops. i then believe the ops closest to what i understand the anoms are predicting. this method has been very accurate for the timeframe concerned (when the anoms are consistent). i do a daily blog for a local fb site after the admin for the fb read what was a blog for my family/friends. this has proved to be (embarrassingly) successful and the above method is the one i employ to create this blog. there is a market for predicting beyond the 3-4 days the bbc/media cater for. i have between 1k-1.5k views per day..

    (i do make it clear that im no wizard, and all im doing in commontating on freely available info in the public domaine).

    so employing this method does, i suggest, act as a good guide for the ops.... see, even now you quote the current ops, and what you said is correct, but they are unlikely to be correct in themselves for the time period in question. because of the way the ops 'jump about' it makes accuracy harder to nail.

    interestingly, the pattern the anoms are consistently predicting but the ops are largely ignoring, is the same one tamara has been predicting, western troughing/eastern ridging, allowing for more 'plume' , southeasterly incursions.

    finally, lol, ive found that when theres a stand off between the ops and anoms, as in the current case where the ops refuse to recognise the troughing over the azores (pretty crucial to further extreme heat) , its the anoms that 'win' as the ops switch to agree  8/10 . the ops have switched as little as 72 hours away after a week of denial. 

    so its not a given, but % wise the anoms spotting the coming mean upper flow has a very high accuracy rate.

     

    Thanks for your reply and thoughts. Of course if they are more successful than any combination of model products then there has to be another form of input into them.
    I did quote the ops I guess though the ECM has been consistent and gaining weight including from the GEFS mean now (although with variation in the ensembles as usual). Of course they could change again to what the anomaly charts suggest. Only one way to find out.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    41 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

    Thanks for your reply and thoughts. Of course if they are more successful than any combination of model products then there has to be another form of input into them.
    I did quote the ops I guess though the ECM has been consistent and gaining weight including from the GEFS mean now (although with variation in the ensembles as usual). Of course they could change again to what the anomaly charts suggest. Only one way to find out.

     

    ..... and the gfs 06z is inching much closer to the anomalies... is the gfs about to cave in and agree with them? lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    ..... and the gfs 06z is inching much closer to the anomalies... is the gfs about to cave in and agree with them? lol.

    I think I might see things in a similar way to your good self, mushy, in that I tend to imagine the NWPMs see-sawing within the boundaries set by the anomalies...? They [the models] certainly stretch the boundaries of reality, from time to time...

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    Glad to see no sign of any hot/very hot conditions returning anytime soon to UK shores on any of the models in the reliable time frame. Any return to hot conditions are at in the least 7 days away and even that is overly generous. The meto lastest update seems to have tempered return to hot conditions too.

    Looking forward to some fresher conditions this weekend, with some wind and rain :-).

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

    Glad to see no sign of any hot/very hot conditions returning anytime soon to UK shores on any of the models in the reliable time frame. Any return to hot conditions are at in the least 7 days away and even that is overly generous. The meto lastest update seems to have tempered return to hot conditions too.

    Looking forward to some fresher conditions this weekend, with some wind and rain :-).

    We'll see, there's plenty of time for that to change still. The GFS 06Z is the most high pressure dominated run for a while and it looks hot enough in the south after Wednesday. Chart for Friday:

    GFSOPUK06_180_17.png

    30 degrees showing in London...and GFS usually underestimates.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    We'll see, there's plenty of time for that to change still. The GFS 06Z is the most high pressure dominated run for a while and it looks hot enough in the south after Wednesday. Chart for Friday:

    GFSOPUK06_180_17.png

    30 degrees showing in London...and GFS usually underestimates.

    Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

    Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

    Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

    Nasty London? Now now. 

    Still good summer weather though?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    15 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

    Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

    Play it down all you want, as you know you can often add 2C+ to those GFS predictions. That would give us 28C in Manchester which is rather hot in my book. 32C in London. And could be upgraded nearer the time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    53 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Play it down all you want, as you know you can often add 2C+ to those GFS predictions. That would give us 28C in Manchester which is rather hot in my book. 32C in London. And could be upgraded nearer the time.

    You want furnace temps I don't, simple as that really.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    regarding the noaas...

    ive been on about the accuracy, and under the current set up believe more real heat is looking likely.

    but of course its not black and white, they are very rarely completely wrong, few models are..

    take the current set up for eg... they did predict on the 15th troughing to our west, ridging to our east... so basically they got it right. but where they are in error is predicting the depth of the atlantic trough thats going to spoil/relieve (delete as desired lol) and that impacts on the detail. so is that a story of successfully predicting the mean upper flow c12 days in advance? or are the cynics going to call it a 'failure'?.. 

    me? im happy to call it pretty accurate, but am disappointed that this trough will be a bit deeper then anticipated because it might well impact on the recovery previously expected.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    1 hour ago, danm said:

    Nasty London? Now now. 

    Still good summer weather though?

    Yes summer continues.

    Re London, I refer to public transport especially the Central(horrifically hot)line and the pollution,

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Yes summer continues.

    Re London, I refer to public transport especially the Central(horrifically hot)line and the pollution,

    Yes the tube is awful in this weather. 

    The trains on the non-deep tube lines like the Metropolitan, Circle, District etc are all now air conditioned, but the deep tube lines like the central, Victoria, Piccadilly etc still aren’t and it’s oppressive to say the least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, danm said:

    Yes the tube is awful in this weather. 

    The trains on the non-deep tube lines like the Metropolitan, Circle, District etc are all now air conditioned, but the deep tube lines like the central, Victoria, Piccadilly etc still aren’t and it’s oppressive to say the least.

    Nowt to worry about, chaps: that nice Mr Grayling has his finger firmly on the pulse?:help:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Hardly a nationwide furnace plume though is it?

    Away from nasty London not bad for high summer.

    Looks about the same as the weather we had in late June, and people were still moaning about how hot it was then too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    5 minutes ago, cheese said:

    Looks about the same as the weather we had in late June, and people were still moaning about how hot it was then too. 

    Not me, June was lovely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

    Nowt to worry about, chaps: that nice Mr Grayling has his finger firmly on the pulse?:help:

    Mr Grayling? reminds me of wing governor in bad girls

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    It's exactly like what happens in the Winter months on here. After a protracted cold spell folk search for every possible sign that their type of weather will continue even though logic dictates otherwise. The same is happening now,we are entering August,yes there will be hot spells,but nothing like what we have just endured,thankfully.  Washout,not a chance,return to a more pleasant Summer,yes most defiantly. Why would anybody want more?

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