Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

No way, hate it, absolutely hate rain

Yeah, I was being sarcastic.

[swebby]

17 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Well this weekend looks poor now! temps in the teens both days, possibly enough rain for July to finish above average for me! 
Even the less wet looking ECM is the worst ECM run so far for me (this forecast only shows the 1pm-7pm rainfall).

Met office forecast wet and windy all day Sunday, gusting 40mph!

This coincides nicely with my 10 days off work and the one weekend I have booked with friends....

These charts are far, far more unsettled than the ones that kept getting labelling wrong, hilarious etc, due to them supposedly over-doing the low. 

Of course, if my location was being affected by the heatwave that the radio is going OTT about.. I may not be so bothered by this 'blip'.
To top it off even tomorrow has downgraded here (21c lol), and we've had un-forecast cloud all morning that is still refusing to go and is reforming now.

 

Yes, i had that sinking feeling the other week when some members were getting all excited about a plume for this week just in time for the school holidays.  Does not take much of a change in the global pattern for the red tops "it's scorchio" headlines to equate to heavy rain and cloud here in the South West (you can happily interchange South West for  Ireland, Wales, the North West and Scotland) but hey ho, if London is sweltering for 2 days then that's what's important for the headline writers.

On the plus side, i suspect (hope) the low/trough will lift out just a little bit more than modelled to possibly make it not a total wash out in Devon/Cornwall on Sunday which will be good news for you and the wedding that Jezzer will be going to. It still be pants for anyone holidaying in Ire/Wal that were hoping for fun in the Sun 

 

[Evening thunder]

15 minutes ago, cheese said:

We have a load of unforecast cloud too so no 30C for us. I don't understand why this cloud always develops and refuses to leave.

I'm not sure, often things like that seem to happen here when something interesting would otherwise happen. It's actually reached 26C here so I wonder what we would have had without the cloud, but the sea breeze will arrive by the time the sun might come out now.

11 minutes ago, Jezzer said:

My nephew gets married in Honiton, a weekend of outdoor celebrations now looking like being scuppered by wet weather, couldn't make it up. Weekend upon weekend of superb weather all summer until this one, his sister got married over a month ago, also in south Devon, weather was pretty drab then too. Sod's law!

Typical. There were a poor couple of days at the start of July when the rest of the country was hot and sunny still.
Of course I can't really complain about this summer at all, just frustrating that it was previously shown to be much better this weekend.

[Evening thunder]

10 minutes ago, swebby said:

Yes, i had that sinking feeling the other week when some members were getting all excited about a plume for this week just in time for the school holidays.  Does not take much of a change in the global pattern for the red tops "it's scorchio" headlines to equate to heavy rain and cloud here in the South West (you can happily interchange South West for  Ireland, Wales, the North West and Scotland) but hey ho, if London is sweltering for 2 days then that's what's important for the headline writers.

On the plus side, i suspect (hope) the low/trough will lift out just a little bit more than modelled to possibly make it not a total wash out in Devon/Cornwall on Sunday which will be good news for you and the wedding that Jezzer will be going to. It still be pants for anyone holidaying in Ire/Wal that were hoping for fun in the Sun 

 

Yes if it's hot anywhere it's hot everywhere based on how it's presented by the media. People seem to think the 'stay out of the sun' and heat health warnings apply to here. Some holiday makers especially if from abroad may be rather surprised that this is apparently a heatwave haha.

The radio talked about 38C today in the SE!

I'd love the GFS at around t+276 to be right but it's the GFS at t+276.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Evening thunder

[Sweatyman]

42 minutes ago, cheese said:

We have a load of unforecast cloud too so no 30C for us. I don't understand why this cloud always develops and refuses to leave.

Does this in Brum all the time. Can guarantee cloudy late morning til about 5pm with just some bright bits. 

[swanseajack23]

5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Does this in Brum all the time. Can guarantee cloudy late morning til about 5pm with just some bright bits. 

Same here in Swansea. Where in fact it’s been pretty poor since the Azores high was pulled west around two weeks ago. Pretty much cloudy nearly everyday until 5-6pm with an average high of between 21/23 with the odd day or so of 25/26. 

Though as much I love the hot weather, if some had offered us this summer(particularly the end May/June) then I would of said yes. Hopefully we can get to see a 30c in this parts before the summer ends. 

[weirpig]

Think the cloud as plagued most today  still 28c though and very humid     

[Paul_1978]

Really enjoying the last couple of runs. Looking forward to weather a bit more pleasant and manageable persisting with some rain.

 

Edited July 26, 2018 by Paul_1978

[SLEETY]

Does seem only a blip this more unsettled weather.People moaning about it makes me laugh,normally it’s a blip if we  get a decent weekend over the summer months.Been spoiled too much this summer.Think of what normal summers are like in the SW,countless holidays their been ruined by the weather.

[mushymanrob]

29c now under cloud... makes you wonder what i could have got in sunshine

 

[knocker]

From where I'm sitting and looking at the EPS mean anomalies the likelihood of another very hot shot down the road rests with the orientation of the Atlantic trough/NW African ridge axis being In the optimum position when strong WAA would be facilitated up the western flank of the ridge catching the UK. If this is not quite right the very hot air stays in situ but the high pressure to the south still becomes influential portending temps still above average and remaining dry. Albeit perhaps more of a N/S split as the block to the east is eroded.

[mushymanrob]

oh...got 30c after all, with more time should reach 31c

[DAVID SNOW]

17 hours ago, Liima said:

Steady on, us lot oop north don't understand posh accents.

Not sure why your post is here, sorry, glitch thing.

GFS op, control and ens  sticking with idea of 1 more pulse of hot air then, bingo summers over, well back to average anyway.

 

[markyo]

4 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Really enjoying the last couple of runs. Looking forward to weather a bit more pleasant and manageable persisting with some rain.

 

Starting to gain some real hope this weather is on a proper change,this weekend is looking like the first for weeks that useable weather is available,ie not dripping in sweat. Certainly a move in right direction with most of the trends showing. One can hope. We certainly need the rain and a lot of it!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, markyo said:

Starting to gain some real hope this weather is on a proper change,this weekend is looking like the first for weeks that useable weather is available,ie not dripping in sweat. Certainly a move in right direction with most of the trends showing. One can hope. We certainly need the rain and a lot of it!

Well, in my location weekend is looking 'orrible, could feel more like autumn than summer, more shocker rain Tuesday, then chance of summer returning wednesday

[Despicable Weather]

Just scanning through the threads and seeing the 'usual' posts but hark! Is that wobbly voices I hear in the model thread?  All the FI charts appearing and that's all we should focus on! I thought it was July right now, not January 

 

[Htid]

I so hope this weather does break soon. I could just about live with another hot spell if there was solid light at the end of the tunnel but reading on the other thread, met office updates etc there really doesn't seem to be any hope anytime soon. 

[DAVID SNOW]

Out in fi land but a strong signal again from the GFS ENS for the heat to dissipate into 2nd week of August,

See if it runs with this idea...

 

Edited July 26, 2018 by DAVID SNOW

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Out in fi land but a strong signal again from the GFS ENS for the heat to dissipate into 2nd week of August,

See if it runs with this idea...

Strong signal? Not sure what your idea of a strong signal is?

[DAVID SNOW]

6 minutes ago, Htid said:

I so hope this weather does break soon. I could just about live with another hot spell if there was solid light at the end of the tunnel but reading on the other thread, met office updates etc there really doesn't seem to be any hope anytime soon. 

Summer wont last forever, it never does, the light may come sooner.

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Strong signal? Not sure what your idea of a strong signal is?

Well the average drops below the LT mean.

 

[Froze were the Days]

31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well, in my location weekend is looking 'orrible, could feel more like autumn than summer, more shocker rain Tuesday, then chance of summer returning wednesday

'Summer returning' - so a possible 2/3 days not like summer and more like other summers  I dream about a cloudy 20c day with some rain, something which hasn't happened since mid-June (1mm of rain that day) to add to the grand total of 2.5mm since late May!

[Evening thunder]

You really can't say the next heatwave isn't uncertain or in FI.. That's the 4th ECM run in a row that doesn't show the main heat building over us.
GFS runs varying, and the GFS at T+240 is the GFS at T+240. Trends at that range have not verified a few times this summer (even if it's the unsettled ones so far)

Now I don't expect, or want, us to not get any more warm settled/hot weather this summer (Surely at least a warm ridge will happen later next week I'd hope), but you can't say it's impossible that things go the wrong way and we end up morechangeable/average longer term, especially after what happened to this weekend.

ECM at day 10 could even be heading that way. It's FI of course so it could be wrong, but in either direction. 
Although still the anomalous heat persists across Scandinavia and/or Finland. That's where the epicentre of this summer's heat anomaly has been located.

Also,I can't see how the anomaly charts can be better or pick up any trend before the model products (ensemble means etc) that they reflect, even if they are more consistent than varying operational runs longer term.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Evening thunder

[DAVID SNOW]

Is the furnace heat stuck at 240hrs+ again, these models need some tweaking to get it right.

Excluding today and tomorrow.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

You really can't say the next heatwave isn't uncertain or in FI.. That's the 4th ECM run in a row that doesn't show the main heat building over us.
GFS runs varying, and the GFS at T+240 is the GFS at T+240. Trends at that range have not verified a few times this summer (even if it's the unsettled ones so far)

Now I don't expect, or want, us to not get any more warm settled/hot weather this summer (Surely at least a warm ridge will happen later next week I'd hope), but you can't say it's impossible that things go the wrong way and we end up morechangeable/average longer term, especially after what happened to this weekend.

ECM at day 10 could even be heading that way. It's FI of course so it could be wrong, but in either direction. 
Although still the anomalous heat persists across Scandinavia and/or Finland. That's where the epicentre of this summer's heat anomaly has been located.

Also,I can't see how the anomaly charts can be better or pick up any trend before the model products (ensemble means etc) that they reflect, even if they are more consistent than varying operational runs longer term.

Re anomalies

Yet statistically they do spot the mean upper trends more successfully then the ops. I dont know how they do it either, maybe john holmes could enlighten us? He was the one who did the research. Im sure that if you check it for yourself over time youll reach the same conclusion.