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00Z certainly a downgrade for summer fans in FI, was showing 30+ degrees, now much cooler NW'lys, only 18 degrees now on Sat 4th, only 1 GFS op so may not happen

Netweather GFS Image

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19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

00Z certainly a downgrade for summer fans in FI, was showing 30+ degrees, now much cooler NW'lys, only 18 degrees now on Sat 4th, only 1 GFS op so may not happen

Netweather GFS Image

I have a strong feeling this may prove to be nearer the mark. A continuation of the current weather gets mathematically smaller the longer it persists. Could only be a short return to normal conditions though. Hopefully not,a change is long overdue.

Edited by markyo

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If the rest of summer really does end up being sh te then at least it should go out with a bang. We'll get our hot August eventually.

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1 minute ago, cheese said:

If the rest of summer really does end up being sh te then at least it should go out with a bang. We'll get our hot August eventually.

It ain't going go out with a bang here, more like a dribble.

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9 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yest, your not wring, mich coller  shood  be bak thes weak end.:D

🤣I'm liking the bants

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28 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

It ain't going go out with a bang here, more like a dribble.

Oh well, at least you have some frontal rain and average temps to look forward to.

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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Oh well, at least you have some frontal rain and average temps to look forward to.

There is a danger that once the atlantic gets its foot in the door, there could be some danger in trouble shifting it.

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12 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Last one from me, no your wrong here, when I was posting the GFS 12Z runs I was only commenting on its persistence to remove the hot air this weekend, that's all.

found the offending post.... and as expected, you were talking about the 'removal of the hot air', i was talking about the whole gfs run at that time which suggested this breakdown would be a pattern change.

see... problem resolved.

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1 hour ago, DIS1970 said:

There is a danger that once the atlantic gets its foot in the door, there could be some danger in trouble shifting it.

 

From the met office website re July 2003

 

1st to 3rd A depression in the North Sea brought a cool unsettled spell, with rain and thundery showers in many places. Some general rain in the north-east on the 3rd. 

4th to 11th The weather became mostly dry with rising temperatures as the low pressure moved to Scandinavia and high pressure settled close by to the south. Some rural areas had a few mist or fog patches on occasions around dawn. Atlantic fronts skirting northern districts on the 8th gave some rain and drizzle. Most days saw long sunny periods. Very warm or hot conditions occurred in many parts during the 9th and 10th. A weak cold front passing later on the 10th introduced fresher air by the 11th. 

12th to 15th With high pressure over Scandinavia, sunny, dry, hot weather soon returned as air was drawn from the continent. Local mist and fog patches cleared quickly but thundery rain intruded into the south-west at times later. Wisley in Surrey reached 33.6 °C on the 15th while Maidenhead had its hottest July day since 1976. 

16th to 20th More unsettled as Atlantic depressions encroached, but it stayed mostly very warm or hot at first. There was widespread thundery rain, heavy at times during the 16th and 17th, as a low moved north-east across the country. St Athan in the Vale of Glamorgan had over 50 mm in 12 hours on the 17th. Western areas had more rain at times on the 18th, 19th and 20th, while eastern areas were sunnier and drier. Residual hot air over the south-east and East Anglia on the 19th gave way that evening as thunderstorms broke out, some lasting into the early hours. 

21st to 23rd A breezy spell with sunny periods and some scattered showers mostly in the west and north.

24th to 26th Atlantic depressions to the north-west brought an unsettled spell with rain bands depositing copious amounts in places, especially over south-west England, Wales and the Midlands. Cardinham in Cornwall received 58 mm in 12 hours ending 0900 GMT on the 25th. Thunder was reported from Lyneham in Wiltshire during the 26th. 

27th to 31st After some thunderstorms in the south-east and East Anglia early on 27th, further rain and showers with cooler temperatures affected many places. A small low moved eastwards over northern England during the 30th bringing heavy thundery showers to north-west England and eastern England down to East Anglia, with tornadoes reported from Sculthorpe in Norfolk. As the month closed more rain moved into western and north-western areas.

 

and we all know what happened in August..:-)

 

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I just suggested as a possibility that's all, the output may well be completely different this morning, but personally looking five days plus ahead is best to be taken with a pinch of salt as the last two or three is a perfect example as the forecasts changed almost hourly, but this is 2018 so it's unlikely to be the same as 2003, which however i cannot remember due to my med condition.

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My recollection of 2003 Summer was one where the sunny/warm weather was interspersed with "cooler spells". each time the sunny/warm weather returned it returned hotter and each time the cool weather returned it was less cool. I guess this would be pretty obvious as the summer season progressed but my point is that just like 2003 the forecast change from a favourable outlook in 2003 to a less favourable , depending on your preferences of course, gave no indication of what was to happen. What has struck me this year is how similar the pattern is ie High pressure dominance early summer 

 

This is an interesting read regarding factors that contributed to 2003

 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1256/wea.74.04 

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3 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

My recollection of 2003 Summer was one where the sunny/warm weather was interspersed with "cooler spells". each time the sunny/warm weather returned it returned hotter and each time the cool weather returned it was less cool. I guess this would be pretty obvious as the summer season progressed but my point is that just like 2003 the forecast change from a favourable outlook in 2003 to a less favourable , depending on your preferences of course, gave no indication of what was to happen. What has struck me this year is how similar the pattern is ie High pressure dominance early summer 

 

This is an interesting read regarding factors that contributed to 2003

 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1256/wea.74.04 

Thanks for that, i'll try to read it when i can concentrate for long enough, without getting a headache. (not being sarcastic by the way!)

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Well this weekend looks poor now! temps in the teens both days, possibly enough rain for July to finish above average for me! 
Even the less wet looking ECM is the worst ECM run so far for me (this forecast only shows the 1pm-7pm rainfall).
1357743558_ECMforeacst26thJuly.thumb.png.f959878df7676d9a6927afeb8386cd0e.png
Met office forecast wet and windy all day Sunday, gusting 40mph!

This coincides nicely with my 10 days off work and the one weekend I have booked with friends....

These charts are far, far more unsettled than the ones that kept getting labelling wrong, hilarious etc, due to them supposedly over-doing the low. :rolleyes:

Of course, if my location was being affected by the heatwave that the radio is going OTT about.. I may not be so bothered by this 'blip'.
To top it off even tomorrow has downgraded here (21c lol), and we've had un-forecast cloud all morning that is still refusing to go and is reforming now.

 

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We have a load of unforecast cloud too so no 30C for us. I don't understand why this cloud always develops and refuses to leave.

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8 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Well this weekend looks poor now! temps in the teens both days, possibly enough rain for July to finish above average for me! 
Even the less wet looking ECM is the worst ECM run so far for me (this forecast only shows the 1pm-7pm rainfall).
1357743558_ECMforeacst26thJuly.thumb.png.f959878df7676d9a6927afeb8386cd0e.png
Met office forecast wet and windy all day Sunday, gusting 40mph!

This coincides nicely with my 10 days off work and the one weekend I have booked with friends....

These charts are far, far more unsettled than the ones that kept getting labelling wrong, hilarious etc, due to them supposedly over-doing the low. :rolleyes:

Of course, if my location was being affected by the heatwave that the radio is going OTT about.. I may not be so bothered by this 'blip'.
To top it off even tomorrow has downgraded here (21c lol), and we've had un-forecast cloud all morning that is still refusing to go and is reforming now.

 

My nephew gets married in Honiton, a weekend of outdoor celebrations now looking like being scuppered by wet weather, couldn't make it up. Weekend upon weekend of superb weather all summer until this one, his sister got married over a month ago, also in south Devon, weather was pretty drab then too. Sod's law!

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That's why I always prefer the high pressure heatwaves as there's almost guaranteed sun. As good as this one may turn out for temperatures, the air is too unstable and nuisance cloud is an issue.

Checking the models this morning, it looked like quite a similar evolution to the 2003 heatwave with the trough that affects us on Monday lifting out of the UK with high pressure quickly establishing by Wednesday onwards. 

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6 minutes ago, cheese said:

We have a load of unforecast cloud too so no 30C for us. I don't understand why this cloud always develops and refuses to leave.

yep, me too 😡

guess ill have to settle for another 28c lol

 

Edited by mushymanrob

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4 hours ago, cheese said:

Oh well, at least you have some frontal rain and average temps to look forward to.

No way, hate it, absolutely hate rain

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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

No way, hate it, absolutely hate rain

Yeah, I was being sarcastic.

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17 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Well this weekend looks poor now! temps in the teens both days, possibly enough rain for July to finish above average for me! 
Even the less wet looking ECM is the worst ECM run so far for me (this forecast only shows the 1pm-7pm rainfall).
1357743558_ECMforeacst26thJuly.thumb.png.f959878df7676d9a6927afeb8386cd0e.png
Met office forecast wet and windy all day Sunday, gusting 40mph!

This coincides nicely with my 10 days off work and the one weekend I have booked with friends....

These charts are far, far more unsettled than the ones that kept getting labelling wrong, hilarious etc, due to them supposedly over-doing the low. :rolleyes:

Of course, if my location was being affected by the heatwave that the radio is going OTT about.. I may not be so bothered by this 'blip'.
To top it off even tomorrow has downgraded here (21c lol), and we've had un-forecast cloud all morning that is still refusing to go and is reforming now.

 

Yes, i had that sinking feeling the other week when some members were getting all excited about a plume for this week just in time for the school holidays.  Does not take much of a change in the global pattern for the red tops "it's scorchio" headlines to equate to heavy rain and cloud here in the South West (you can happily interchange South West for  Ireland, Wales, the North West and Scotland) but hey ho, if London is sweltering for 2 days then that's what's important for the headline writers.

On the plus side, i suspect (hope) the low/trough will lift out just a little bit more than modelled to possibly make it not a total wash out in Devon/Cornwall on Sunday which will be good news for you and the wedding that Jezzer will be going to. It still be pants for anyone holidaying in Ire/Wal that were hoping for fun in the Sun 

 

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15 minutes ago, cheese said:

We have a load of unforecast cloud too so no 30C for us. I don't understand why this cloud always develops and refuses to leave.

I'm not sure, often things like that seem to happen here when something interesting would otherwise happen. It's actually reached 26C here so I wonder what we would have had without the cloud, but the sea breeze will arrive by the time the sun might come out now.

11 minutes ago, Jezzer said:

My nephew gets married in Honiton, a weekend of outdoor celebrations now looking like being scuppered by wet weather, couldn't make it up. Weekend upon weekend of superb weather all summer until this one, his sister got married over a month ago, also in south Devon, weather was pretty drab then too. Sod's law!

Typical. There were a poor couple of days at the start of July when the rest of the country was hot and sunny still.
Of course I can't really complain about this summer at all, just frustrating that it was previously shown to be much better this weekend.

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10 minutes ago, swebby said:

Yes, i had that sinking feeling the other week when some members were getting all excited about a plume for this week just in time for the school holidays.  Does not take much of a change in the global pattern for the red tops "it's scorchio" headlines to equate to heavy rain and cloud here in the South West (you can happily interchange South West for  Ireland, Wales, the North West and Scotland) but hey ho, if London is sweltering for 2 days then that's what's important for the headline writers.

On the plus side, i suspect (hope) the low/trough will lift out just a little bit more than modelled to possibly make it not a total wash out in Devon/Cornwall on Sunday which will be good news for you and the wedding that Jezzer will be going to. It still be pants for anyone holidaying in Ire/Wal that were hoping for fun in the Sun 

 

Yes if it's hot anywhere it's hot everywhere based on how it's presented by the media. People seem to think the 'stay out of the sun' and heat health warnings apply to here. Some holiday makers especially if from abroad may be rather surprised that this is apparently a heatwave haha.

The radio talked about 38C today in the SE!

I'd love the GFS at around t+276 to be right but it's the GFS at t+276.

Edited by Evening thunder

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42 minutes ago, cheese said:

We have a load of unforecast cloud too so no 30C for us. I don't understand why this cloud always develops and refuses to leave.

Does this in Brum all the time. Can guarantee cloudy late morning til about 5pm with just some bright bits. 

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5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Does this in Brum all the time. Can guarantee cloudy late morning til about 5pm with just some bright bits. 

Same here in Swansea. Where in fact it’s been pretty poor since the Azores high was pulled west around two weeks ago. Pretty much cloudy nearly everyday until 5-6pm with an average high of between 21/23 with the odd day or so of 25/26. 

Though as much I love the hot weather, if some had offered us this summer(particularly the end May/June) then I would of said yes. Hopefully we can get to see a 30c in this parts before the summer ends. 

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Think the cloud as plagued most today  still 28c though and very humid     

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