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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’m sure he could easily find some from yourself saying the heat was in fi and wouldn’t arrive! 

The naysayers and doom mongers have been proved wrong again and again this summer.

Its been warm, v warm, hot every day either side of my front door for weeks, the point is(if you look back at my posts) I was commenting on the GFS 12Z run over a period of days last week and it continually showed the hot air being pushed away this weekend, the member you refer to told me that the GFS was wrong! because the noaa chart did not support this evolution, so it goes to prove that a model or chart can be wrong at only 7 days or less.

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Lets have some fun. What’s people’s guesses on the max temps for the country for tomorrow and Friday? I’m going with 35.6oC tomorrow and 34.9oC Friday 

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4 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Lets have some fun. What’s people’s guesses on the max temps for the country for tomorrow and Friday? I’m going with 35.6oC tomorrow and 34.9oC Friday 

Good idea! I'll go for 36.3C Thursday and 35.2C on Friday 😎

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1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Its been warm, v warm, hot every day either side of my front door for weeks, the point is(if you look back at my posts) I was commenting on the GFS 12Z run over a period of days last week and it continually showed the hot air being pushed away this weekend, the member you refer to told me that the GFS was wrong! because the noaa chart did not support this evolution, so it goes to prove that a model or chart can be wrong at only 7 days or less.

the gfs was wrong, because it had this breakdown as a permanent pattern change, THATS why it was wrong, not because it showed a westerly sweep this weekend.  the noaas have consistently for at least the last ten days predicted bang on the mean upper flow. that allows for transitory westerlies as much as transitory southerlies, which is precisely what we have got. meanwhile the gfs and ecm were all over the place, high pressure sat over us, low pressure sat over us, changing from run to run.

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9 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Lets have some fun. What’s people’s guesses on the max temps for the country for tomorrow and Friday? I’m going with 35.6oC tomorrow and 34.9oC Friday 

I'm going for 3460 c on Thursday and 7090 c on Friday might stop the moaning at least 😂

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

I'm going for 3460 c on Thursday and 7090 c on Friday might stop the moaning at least 😂

😍😎😍 shorts weather!

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15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the gfs was wrong, because it had this breakdown as a permanent pattern change, THATS why it was wrong, not because it showed a westerly sweep this weekend.  the noaas have consistently for at least the last ten days predicted bang on the mean upper flow. that allows for transitory westerlies as much as transitory southerlies, which is precisely what we have got. meanwhile the gfs and ecm were all over the place, high pressure sat over us, low pressure sat over us, changing from run to run.

Last one from me, no your wrong here, when I was posting the GFS 12Z runs I was only commenting on its persistence to remove the hot air this weekend, that's all.

Edited by Paul

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Back to the models, this evenings ECM has the warm, v warm upper air pushing up from the South at day 10, the v hot stuff to the South of the UK.

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26 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'm going for 3460 c on Thursday and 7090 c on Friday might stop the moaning at least 😂

That’s just silly...we know we can only get max of 7089oC in July 😂

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

The max lapse rate we seem to achieve is 19c in optimal conditions

At what height are you getting these 19°C optimal conditions? I tend to look at 850 to 500hPa lapse rates to look for some form of instability during hot/humid conditions, and we sure get higher than 19°C lapse rates.

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35 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Great tan too 😂

giphy.gif

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Any one roughly know what temp us on west sussex coast could get next week when it really heats up again? The 30's would be nice, tho it did get to 31 at shoreham back earlier in july

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1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Last one from me, no your wrong here, when I was posting the GFS 12Z runs I was only commenting on its persistence to remove the hot air this weekend, that's all.

*you’re 😉

back to the models - it’s gonna be bloody hot next two days 🔥 

Edited by c00ps
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30 minutes ago, c00ps said:

*you’re 😉

back to the models - it’s gonna be bloody hot next two days 🔥 

Yest, your not wring, mich coller  shood  be bak thes weak end.:D

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38 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yest, your not wring, mich coller  shood  be bak thes weak end.:D

Steady on, us lot oop north don't understand posh accents.

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Sees someone moaning about the ECM, checks output, sees high pressure, scratches head. Some people are certainly odd.

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4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Sees someone moaning about the ECM, checks output, sees high pressure, scratches head. Some people are certainly odd.

They do it on purpose for a reaction.

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A few coldies have jumped on the ECM tonight, clutching at some very thin straws to say the least! There's no escape from the heat I'm afraid- better enjoy the weekend!

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The view from Primrose Hill in late August 2018:

giphy-6.gif?w=1200

Edited by cheese
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7 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

And in Cumbria 

nasasolvesad.jpg

And at the Cheese residence.. 

rEg5gLxKXT-12.png

Edited by cheese

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

At what height are you getting these 19°C optimal conditions? I tend to look at 850 to 500hPa lapse rates to look for some form of instability during hot/humid conditions, and we sure get higher than 19°C lapse rates.

850 HPA- 18/19c is really the top out.

Next weekends modelling is looking totally toasty !!!

The 16c line is around 35c for Sat / Sun.. maybe higher as the days close in...

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I see the GFS is going off on one tonight. Entertaining!

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some thought gfz18z was not a hot run,and even unsettled ?well if uppers over 20c approaching from the South in about 10 days is considered not a hot run then I give up!

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