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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Oh yes, GFS says summer is over.?

    until the noaa's do...it wont be ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    who cares about the ecm?... im going on the noaa 500mb charts which when consistent (and they are) are very accurate.

    What does the noaa  chart show for weather in Derby end of next week then??

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    What does the noaa  chart show for weather in Derby end of next week then??

    hot

    i can read them, then apply the conditions from experience these scenarios throw up.

    hot and humid, temps low-mid 30s.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    hot

    i can read them, then apply the conditions from experience these scenarios throw up.

    hot and humid, temps low-mid 30s.

    Noaa  charts don't show surface conditions, your just guessing.?

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    17 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Noaa  charts don't show surface conditions, your just guessing.?

    not at all. most people with a rudementary understanding of these charts can make a likely forecast taking into account the time of year etc. it really isnt difficult.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

    Oh no!?

    Oh yes and it has 80 per cent chance of verify as it's deep into f1, even though it's not a selected perturbation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I’m sure he could easily find some from yourself saying the heat was in fi and wouldn’t arrive! 

    The naysayers and doom mongers have been proved wrong again and again this summer.

    Its been warm, v warm, hot every day either side of my front door for weeks, the point is(if you look back at my posts) I was commenting on the GFS 12Z run over a period of days last week and it continually showed the hot air being pushed away this weekend, the member you refer to told me that the GFS was wrong! because the noaa chart did not support this evolution, so it goes to prove that a model or chart can be wrong at only 7 days or less.

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    Lets have some fun. What’s people’s guesses on the max temps for the country for tomorrow and Friday? I’m going with 35.6oC tomorrow and 34.9oC Friday 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    4 minutes ago, c00ps said:

    Lets have some fun. What’s people’s guesses on the max temps for the country for tomorrow and Friday? I’m going with 35.6oC tomorrow and 34.9oC Friday 

    Good idea! I'll go for 36.3C Thursday and 35.2C on Friday ?

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Its been warm, v warm, hot every day either side of my front door for weeks, the point is(if you look back at my posts) I was commenting on the GFS 12Z run over a period of days last week and it continually showed the hot air being pushed away this weekend, the member you refer to told me that the GFS was wrong! because the noaa chart did not support this evolution, so it goes to prove that a model or chart can be wrong at only 7 days or less.

    the gfs was wrong, because it had this breakdown as a permanent pattern change, THATS why it was wrong, not because it showed a westerly sweep this weekend.  the noaas have consistently for at least the last ten days predicted bang on the mean upper flow. that allows for transitory westerlies as much as transitory southerlies, which is precisely what we have got. meanwhile the gfs and ecm were all over the place, high pressure sat over us, low pressure sat over us, changing from run to run.

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    9 minutes ago, c00ps said:

    Lets have some fun. What’s people’s guesses on the max temps for the country for tomorrow and Friday? I’m going with 35.6oC tomorrow and 34.9oC Friday 

    I'm going for 3460 c on Thursday and 7090 c on Friday might stop the moaning at least ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    Just now, Mokidugway said:

    I'm going for 3460 c on Thursday and 7090 c on Friday might stop the moaning at least ?

    ??? shorts weather!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    the gfs was wrong, because it had this breakdown as a permanent pattern change, THATS why it was wrong, not because it showed a westerly sweep this weekend.  the noaas have consistently for at least the last ten days predicted bang on the mean upper flow. that allows for transitory westerlies as much as transitory southerlies, which is precisely what we have got. meanwhile the gfs and ecm were all over the place, high pressure sat over us, low pressure sat over us, changing from run to run.

    Last one from me, no your wrong here, when I was posting the GFS 12Z runs I was only commenting on its persistence to remove the hot air this weekend, that's all.

    Edited by Paul
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    Back to the models, this evenings ECM has the warm, v warm upper air pushing up from the South at day 10, the v hot stuff to the South of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    26 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    I'm going for 3460 c on Thursday and 7090 c on Friday might stop the moaning at least ?

    That’s just silly...we know we can only get max of 7089oC in July ?

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    The max lapse rate we seem to achieve is 19c in optimal conditions

    At what height are you getting these 19°C optimal conditions? I tend to look at 850 to 500hPa lapse rates to look for some form of instability during hot/humid conditions, and we sure get higher than 19°C lapse rates.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    35 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    Great tan too ?

    giphy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

    Any one roughly know what temp us on west sussex coast could get next week when it really heats up again? The 30's would be nice, tho it did get to 31 at shoreham back earlier in july

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Last one from me, no your wrong here, when I was posting the GFS 12Z runs I was only commenting on its persistence to remove the hot air this weekend, that's all.

    *you’re ?

    back to the models - it’s gonna be bloody hot next two days ? 

    Edited by c00ps
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    30 minutes ago, c00ps said:

    *you’re ?

    back to the models - it’s gonna be bloody hot next two days ? 

    Yest, your not wring, mich coller  shood  be bak thes weak end.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    38 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Yest, your not wring, mich coller  shood  be bak thes weak end.:D

    Steady on, us lot oop north don't understand posh accents.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Sees someone moaning about the ECM, checks output, sees high pressure, scratches head. Some people are certainly odd.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, cheese said:

    Sees someone moaning about the ECM, checks output, sees high pressure, scratches head. Some people are certainly odd.

    They do it on purpose for a reaction.

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