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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Well the Met Office were giving it a 20% chance, so maybe not that sensational.

    I guess I don't equate 20% chance to probable - 80% chance it wont happen - trouble is that doesn't sell/equate to more clicks

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    7 minutes ago, c00ps said:

    I guess I don't equate 20% chance to probable - 80% chance it wont happen - trouble is that doesn't sell/equate to more clicks

    20% isn't probable but it's not negligible either. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    They're actually suggesting 30% chance of it being broken. So a headline saying it's possible isn't exactly sensationalist in my view. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    IMO, the weather will just do whatever it'll do? The 'probability' is nowt more than a quantification of the forecasters' degree of confidence: in this case, that the setting of new all-time record would require a 'freak-of-nature', something of which the forecasters themselves are blissfully unaware...? ?️

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    10 minutes ago, cheese said:

    20% isn't probable but it's not negligible either. 

    I deal in risk daily for my job - when we look at a risk of an event happening the threshold for unlikely is 20% - this in my mind means its unlikely it'll happen. Horses for courses. Just how it read to me when its unlikely to happen

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    Just now, c00ps said:

    I deal in risk daily for my job - when we look at a risk of an event happening the threshold for unlikely is 20% - this in my mind means its unlikely it'll happen. Horses for courses. Just how it read to me when its unlikely to happen

    It is unlikely to happen, and I don't think anyone is implying otherwise - but for example if there was a 20% chance of the world ending tomorrow I'm sure that would be a big enough risk for people to be concerned. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    1 minute ago, cheese said:

    It is unlikely to happen, and I don't think anyone is implying otherwise - but for example if there was a 20% chance of the world ending tomorrow I'm sure that would be a big enough risk for people to be concerned. 

    Ah well it's all how we interpret things . One things for sure - If we hit the 38.5oC this week it'll feel like the world is ending

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    Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
    10 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    but in some countries it hits the 40s for months,the elderly do survive the heat there,dont be over dramatic and say many will die here for goodness sake. I'm sure the vulnerable will know how to best cope with the heat,I mean on the news the met office forecasts ,its constantly rammed down our throats ,not to go outside ,put lots of sun cream on if you do,drink.lots of water,etc.They say it all the time,despite the fact its obvious to most people what you need to do in hot weather to stay healthy for goodness sake,instead of the but constant need to be reminded what to do!!

    Where exactly? We also have a tendency to believe that 'everyone else' always copes better than us. I doubt that there are many well-populated areas of the world where it's over 40C 'for months'. Where that does occur, you can be pretty sure that anyone who can afford it will have air-conditioning, which makes a huge difference. People die from the heat in India and Pakistan every year and this week this has also been happening in Japan, for example.

    In China, where I spend most of the time, 'high-temperature' warnings are issued when the temperature is forecast to exceed 35C. And, yes, people complain about the heat all the time in summer!

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    id have thought early august would be the most likely time to see records broken, this friday thing is pretty marginal, and local, but the real heat thats coming must be a stronger contender. placing my faith in the accuracy of the noaa anomaly charts of course, they suggest a lengthier spell of a plume type scenario then the current gfs or ecm do. they still are not really totally on board with the atlantic trough being centered closer to the azores. so when they catch up with the noaa's, expect some even hotter runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Early August seems prime time for heat records to go.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    The latest METO long range outlook looks awful,still no relief to be seen,the last thing we need to see at this time. The countryside has lost all it's beauty,just smells of dust and dirt Just praying that it changes however unlikely that may be. This is becoming the summer from hell.

    Edited by markyo
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    hmmm... is 10 days away 'fi'? in this case?.. this 'next burst' has been widely predicted, and is now firming up. id have thought this 'next burst' is pretty much a given, the only question is how hot will it get?

    following patterns of previous long hot summers, early august pretty much always delivers the hottest spell, personally - in confident at the 'next burst' will be the strongest of the year.

     

    Hmmm... 10 days is always fi, you cant cherry pick when it is or isn't , any time of year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, cheese said:

    Early August seems prime time for heat records to go.

    And we couldnt be in a better position to smash the record with the searing heat pushing north next week. 

    Im very pleased with the outlook at the moment with an upgrade in the rainfall expected at the weekend which should give the garden a long overdue water. Then its all eyes on a return of the heatwave!! What an astonishing summer we are having.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Hmmm... 10 days is always fi, you cant cherry pick when it is or isn't , any time of year.

    not really, fi starts when uncertainty creeps in. it could be 3 days or 3 weeks.

    every indication from every source suggests more very hot weather returning later next week. only the detail is to be determined, so im not so sure the end of next week is much of a fantasy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    5 hours ago, c00ps said:

    Netweather's becoming a bit sensational with its headlines. Do they really think we'll beat 38.5oC Friday. Nothing I've seen indicates this. Thought I was reading the express for a minute

    The experts in Exeter continue to edge the temps up for Friday another 1c rise today to 37c. Don't see anything wrong with the headline myself...

    18673221-1bb7-42ff-bc39-ab3fd46552a5.png.38de97a0db1441ef6d68bab31a0f2f5a.thumb.png.6eaf749f04d417525c3fc081fc34c4d5.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    21 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

    And we couldnt be in a better position to smash the record with the searing heat pushing north next week. 

    Im very pleased with the outlook at the moment with an upgrade in the rainfall expected at the weekend which should give the garden a long overdue water. Then its all eyes on a return of the heatwave!! What an astonishing summer we are having.

    I'm not, Sat and sun show temps of 16 and 17° max, more like autumn than summer

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    2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    I'm not, Sat and sun show temps of 16 and 17° max, more like autumn than summer

    Indeed to much moaning going on , near 40 c in  the se and 16 c here in rain over a distance of 200 miles with no real topagraphical  obstructions ,make me sick ,lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    not really, fi starts when uncertainty creeps in. it could be 3 days or 3 weeks.

    every indication from every source suggests more very hot weather returning later next week. only the detail is to be determined, so im not so sure the end of next week is much of a fantasy.

    Not really, you have forgotten "That ECM" "Its coming" "Boom" etc etc,  that looked nailed on blizzards all the way down to 96hrs from 240.

    Anyway meto text update does say likely to become v warm with a CHANCE  of hot conditions especially across the South, so even if it does happen your probably too far North anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    12 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Not really, you have forgotten "That ECM" "Its coming" "Boom" etc etc,  that looked nailed on blizzards all the way down to 96hrs from 240.

    Anyway meto text update does say likely to become v warm with a CHANCE  of hot conditions especially across the South, so even if it does happen your probably too far North anyway.

    But what is certain, Dave, is that the necessary/most favourable parameters are growing in number: the heat-dome is going nowhere, the ground is dry and the Atlantic trough looks to be remaining well-placed...so I see no reason why our all-time record won't be threatened during the first half of August...?

    And, if things don't change that much (those heat-domes having so much collective inertia) a monumental September might also be on the cards...?️

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    But what is certain, Dave, is that the necessary/most favourable parameters are growing in number: the heat-dome is going nowhere, the ground is dry and the Atlantic trough looks to be remaining well-placed...so I see no reason why our all-time record won't be threatened during the first half of August...?

    And, if things don't change that much (those heat-domes having so much collective inertia) a monumental September might also be on the cards...?️

    Anything is possible Pete, I did say couple of weeks ago that this year with stuck extremes, beasts then straight into summer, we 'could' see even more extreme weather, I say could the meto say chance. If at some point the met start saying there is a 70/80% chance that it will happen, then that's different.

    As for September..Snow.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Gfs replaces the Scandinavian block with an intense upper trough. Oh my, could initiate a bout of CAA

    gfs_z500a_nh_55.thumb.png.4ce796f606f50f14d48e7888c674d9de.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Gfs replaces the Scandinavian block with an intense upper trough. Oh my, could initiate a bout of CAA

    gfs_z500a_nh_55.thumb.png.4ce796f606f50f14d48e7888c674d9de.png

    Oh no!?

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Not really, you have forgotten "That ECM" "Its coming" "Boom" etc etc,  that looked nailed on blizzards all the way down to 96hrs from 240.

    Anyway meto text update does say likely to become v warm with a CHANCE  of hot conditions especially across the South, so even if it does happen your probably too far North anyway.

    who cares about the ecm?... im going on the noaa 500mb charts which when consistent (and they are) are very accurate.

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