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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

First decent summer in ages ,and all your hear from the press is don’t go outside ,it’s too hot etc..

Really,well I’ve been out enjoying every day ,of this hot weather,is that ok ,or will people be banned from going outside because it’s deemed too hot.This is the U.K. so don’t put it past the government to come out with that statement soon😮

 

Even though i truly hate this weather,the worst summer in 15 years for me,the government should keep it's trap shut. We know on a hot day to try and keep cool,we know on a freezing cold day to keep warm. The press just want to sell their rags,the government just want to interfere to try and look good. In this weather if you like it,are sensible then enjoy it! Just the same in Winter for those like myself. For me i'm praying for a breakdown,cooler fresher weather,but i know the coastal trade at just the start of the School holiday season wants the opposite. Each to their own and criticising another's view...nope that's not right. To many on here forget this.

Edited by markyo

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21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

20% chance of getting the UK's hottest temp on record this Friday let's see how the models go over the next few days

We need 38.6c or higher to break the record

"We"?

You will have to move hundreds of miles south to even get the 20% chance.:rofl:

@96hrs big 3 models in agreement, much cooler and fresher. Nice.

Edited by DAVID SNOW

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I heard a tourism boss from Cornwall was complaining about the heat health alerts being OTT.. however it' the low 20's in Cornwall.

Basically it seemed he thought Cornwall was included, which reflects the 'its hot somewhere so it's hot everywhere' nature of reporting (and possibly that if Wiltshire is in the same region as Cornwall for the alerts so if Wiltshire may scrape the criteria, Cornwall is coloured orange)..

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Re the 20% chance of the record on Friday. It might be unrelated in terms of the here and now, but I do recall Sunday 10th August 2003 being preceded by a midweek chance of the record being broken (possibly the Wednesday 6th). It wasn’t to be on that first stab and that Sunday 10th wasn’t seen to be a chance for breaking the record even in the preceding 4 or 5 days. So what I’m saying is that whilst it will probably not be broken at the end of the week, the building blocks are there for another attempt when the heat reloads after this weekend. A lot of the talk has been about 3rd to 6th August more generally but a lot can evolve in terms of detail over a shorter timeframe as back in 2003. Also depends on cloud cover (obviously!) - I recall when living in Cardiff that a record 34 degrees was forecast on that Saturday 9th but unexpected cloudy skies scuppered any chance that day (record from memory is 33 degrees).

Also a question if anyone can answer...why is it that Brogdale has not been the hottest place UK wide since that infamous 2003 heatwave? Was it a temporary station set up specifically for the record? It’s just interesting that there appear to be no records of this station such as daily extremes since...

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So the next chase for the next heat burst starts at 10 days away, way out in FI.

Lets see if tomorrow the models(some) bring it down to 9 days.

Maybe this year, maybe not for records

Its strange really, I follow the models or rather they lead me towards the prospect of some snow, usually up the garden path, but with this year being to 'stuck' a one final lethal heat plume is a concern.

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Its all very well people wanting 40c+ to hit the UK on the model forum, but do they realise that will literally kill many elderly and vulnerable people? 

What we need after this very dry spell is rain, and cooler temps, and we need them badly!

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1 minute ago, Nath said:

Its all very well people wanting 40c+ to hit the UK on the model forum, but do they realise that will literally kill many elderly and vulnerable people? 

Not wanting it would do the same, if it happened.

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GFS pub run into la la  land, lets chase that, is it winter?

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but in some countries it hits the 40s for months,the elderly do survive the heat there,dont be over dramatic and say many will die here for goodness sake. I'm sure the vulnerable will know how to best cope with the heat,I mean on the news the met office forecasts ,its constantly rammed down our throats ,not to go outside ,put lots of sun cream on if you do,drink.lots of water,etc.They say it all the time,despite the fact its obvious to most people what you need to do in hot weather to stay healthy for goodness sake,instead of the constant need to be reminded what to do!!

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4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

but in some countries it hits the 40s for months,the elderly do survive the heat there,dont be over dramatic and say many will die here for goodness sake. I'm sure the vulnerable will know how to best cope with the heat,I mean on the news the met office forecasts ,its constantly rammed down our throats ,not to go outside ,put lots of sun cream on if you do,drink.lots of water,etc.They say it all the time,despite the fact its obvious to most people what you need to do in hot weather to stay healthy for goodness sake,instead of the constant need to be reminded what to do!!

I agree. It’s the same when they say that in winter. Having lived in Canada in -42oC I can confirm no old person died in my town of the cold. 🙄

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Well I would recommend reading the book, Heat Wave; A social Autopsy of disaster in Chicago, By Eric Klinenberg The seven day heat wave killed 700 people, twice the number of the great fire of 1871. The book analyses why. Worth remembering heat waves kill more people in a typical year in America than other natural disasters combined.

It's extremely glib to say the vulnerable will know best how to cope with the heat if they are not capable implementing this. Which is why the vulnerable die.

 

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It's a case of preparedness. In the UK we know it sometimes gets very hot but we don't expect it to. And it winter we know it gets very cold but we don't expect it to.

Partly to blame for this is the sensationalistic reporting that always makes things sound a lot worse than they actually are.  This ends up with people not paying heed when things do get very bad. E.g. the Express and Sun ramp up *every* hot spell and cold spell to make them sound like the end of days..... When the extremes do come people don't really believe it'll be that bad.

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6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

but in some countries it hits the 40s for months,the elderly do survive the heat there,dont be over dramatic and say many will die here for goodness sake. I'm sure the vulnerable will know how to best cope with the heat,I mean on the news the met office forecasts ,its constantly rammed down our throats ,not to go outside ,put lots of sun cream on if you do,drink.lots of water,etc.They say it all the time,despite the fact its obvious to most people what you need to do in hot weather to stay healthy for goodness sake,instead of the constant need to be reminded what to do!!

I would guess that the 'some' countries that you mention have close communities and are very family oriented, 'our' society is rather different imo, in that we have a lot of elderly people who live alone and sadly, many have families  that  don't care enough, or not at all.

Humidity is a big factor here, 40c with 5%, is a world away from 40c with 50%+.

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7 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I would guess that the 'some' countries that you mention have close communities and are very family oriented, 'our' society is rather different imo, in that we have a lot of elderly people who live alone and sadly, many have families  that  don't care enough, or not at all.

Humidity is a big factor here, 40c with 5%, is a world away from 40c with 50%+.

Humidity is the killer,we run training for engineers as part of HsE courses specifically on how to deal with it. The difference a small increase in humidity can make is amazing. It can creep up before you notice it,by then you are dehydrated.

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11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

So the next chase for the next heat burst starts at 10 days away, way out in FI.

Lets see if tomorrow the models(some) bring it down to 9 days.

Maybe this year, maybe not for records

Its strange really, I follow the models or rather they lead me towards the prospect of some snow, usually up the garden path, but with this year being to 'stuck' a one final lethal heat plume is a concern.

hmmm... is 10 days away 'fi'? in this case?.. this 'next burst' has been widely predicted, and is now firming up. id have thought this 'next burst' is pretty much a given, the only question is how hot will it get?

following patterns of previous long hot summers, early august pretty much always delivers the hottest spell, personally - in confident at the 'next burst' will be the strongest of the year.

 

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people who live in hot countries - 40c+ know how to handle the heat. ive just got back from dubai where temps maxed at a cool 45c...(lol), workers were working on construction sites and gardening. they were all wrapped up with only their faces showing (and hands).   humidity was c30% (weather app).

heat and humidity hit us harder because we arent aclimatised to it , and hits the elderly and infirm hardest, hence the spike in heat related deaths?

 

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Netweather's becoming a bit sensational with its headlines. Do they really think we'll beat 38.5oC Friday. Nothing I've seen indicates this. Thought I was reading the express for a minute

Edited by c00ps

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1 hour ago, c00ps said:

Netweather's becoming a bit sensational with its headlines. Do they really think we'll beat 38.5oC Friday. Nothing I've seen indicates this. Thought I was reading the express for a minute

Well the Met Office were giving it a 20% chance, so maybe not that sensational.

Edited by Djdazzle

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13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well the Met Office were giving it a 20% chance, so maybe not that sensational.

I guess I don't equate 20% chance to probable - 80% chance it wont happen - trouble is that doesn't sell/equate to more clicks

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7 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I guess I don't equate 20% chance to probable - 80% chance it wont happen - trouble is that doesn't sell/equate to more clicks

20% isn't probable but it's not negligible either. 

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They're actually suggesting 30% chance of it being broken. So a headline saying it's possible isn't exactly sensationalist in my view. 

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IMO, the weather will just do whatever it'll do? The 'probability' is nowt more than a quantification of the forecasters' degree of confidence: in this case, that the setting of new all-time record would require a 'freak-of-nature', something of which the forecasters themselves are blissfully unaware...? 🌡️

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10 minutes ago, cheese said:

20% isn't probable but it's not negligible either. 

I deal in risk daily for my job - when we look at a risk of an event happening the threshold for unlikely is 20% - this in my mind means its unlikely it'll happen. Horses for courses. Just how it read to me when its unlikely to happen

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Just now, c00ps said:

I deal in risk daily for my job - when we look at a risk of an event happening the threshold for unlikely is 20% - this in my mind means its unlikely it'll happen. Horses for courses. Just how it read to me when its unlikely to happen

It is unlikely to happen, and I don't think anyone is implying otherwise - but for example if there was a 20% chance of the world ending tomorrow I'm sure that would be a big enough risk for people to be concerned. 

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1 minute ago, cheese said:

It is unlikely to happen, and I don't think anyone is implying otherwise - but for example if there was a 20% chance of the world ending tomorrow I'm sure that would be a big enough risk for people to be concerned. 

Ah well it's all how we interpret things . One things for sure - If we hit the 38.5oC this week it'll feel like the world is ending

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