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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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10 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I have only been posting about the GFS12Z for several days now, just to see what it does each day, as JH says pick a model and its time instigation and stick with it

I guess Elmos  bbq went tits up .

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4 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If we hit the mid-forties, unless the humidity drops then we're in serious trouble.  From a biology POV, if the temperature + DP equals 77C or greater, then even fit and healthy people are at severe risk of potentially fatal heatstroke.  I appreciate that many on here seem to think that they're so macho that they could survive an industrial furnace, but, at a certain level, the body simply cannot maintain its safe temperature range.

It's just as well then that nobody here has said such a thing. Mid-forties? Temperature plus dew point of 77C? You know very well that's not remotely going to happen.

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This mornings GFS shows a blink and you'll miss it heat spike in FI.

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Tbh there is no 'hot' weather forecast for my location, just general low-mid 20's warmth and my temps have downgraded slightly again.

When the near continent and Scandinavia hot up (wouldn't bet against the latter getting more records again) we often seem to be a bit too close to Atlantic lows. The ECM has found a 2nd fresher interlude next week, and on the latest available mean from last night my 850s are still below 10C here at day 10 and are warmer off the north coast of Lapland, lol.

It may hot up again and the trend is good, though I can't ever buy too much into what the GFS/GEFS shows beyond day 10.

Still a fantastic summer for us though not quite as hot as it could have been perhaps, good for some I know.

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11 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If we hit the mid-forties, unless the humidity drops then we're in serious trouble.  From a biology POV, if the temperature + DP equals 77C or greater, then even fit and healthy people are at severe risk of potentially fatal heatstroke.  I appreciate that many on here seem to think that they're so macho that they could survive an industrial furnace, but, at a certain level, the body simply cannot maintain its safe temperature range.

............ and yet many do, throughout the world.

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7 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

It's just as well then that nobody here has said such a thing. Mid-forties? Temperature plus dew point of 77C? You know very well that's not remotely going to happen.

Mid-40s with high humidity doesn't even occur except in areas around the Persian Gulf. It would be impossible in the UK, and if mid-40s temperatures did occur in the UK it would almost certainly be a very dry heat - it would have to be to allow such high temperatures to be achieved.

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4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Mid-40s with high humidity doesn't even occur except in areas around the Persian Gulf. It would be impossible in the UK, and if mid-40s temperatures did occur in the UK it would almost certainly be a very dry heat - it would have to be to allow such high temperatures to be achieved.

Don't parts of the Indian sub-continent hit 50C with high humidity pre-monsoon?

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8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't parts of the Indian sub-continent hit 50C with high humidity pre-monsoon?

No if you look at places like Jacobabad and Sibi in Pakistan which record the highest temps relative humidity is usually 4-8%.

Further south east places to the north east of Mumbai can get to 40c and dew points in the high 20s. 

Persian gulf is comfoabtly the world champion of heat indices.

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Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia

Quote

The risk associated with any climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins. Climate change, without mitigation, presents a serious and unique risk in South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, due to an unprecedented combination of severe natural hazard and acute vulnerability.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1603322.full

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I wonder if there's an online record anywhere of how many heatwaves of each degree of severity are occurring simultaneously?

This year seems to be on steroids when it comes to high temperatures over land. 

Important to emphasise land there; the ocean surfaces are overall, as expected, some way short of what we saw during the major oceanic heat release phase 2014-16. This may actually be a part of the heatwave equation; lower ocean surface temps mean less moisture release into the atmosphere (to an extent regionally adjusted by predominant weather patterns).

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1603322.full

That was it - thanks Malcolm!  I think the 77C guideline was a rough equivalent to a WBT of 35C.

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What an amazing year for weather enthusiasts.First the record cold start to March then another cold spell now this amazing hot spell.It all started with that SSW event in late February.

Im so interested in how the winter  is going to pan out too later,mega cold,maybe?😄😄

Edited by SLEETY

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The GFS parallel aka FV3 is still going for insane heat broaching our shores the weekend after next - it's been pretty consistent on this for a few runs now.  T300:

image.thumb.jpg.3150dc5c5569323644a20d2ba17e1ebc.jpg

D'oh! Wrong thread, never mind, I'll leave it here anyway!

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

What an amazing year for weather enthusiasts.First the record cold start to March then another cold spell now this amazing hot spell.It all started with that SSW event in late February.

Im so interested in how the winter  is going to pan out too later,mega cold,maybe?😄😄

It seems our weather has been changed since the SSW due to the Atlantic effectively being cut off. Would be something else if it happened right through winter. Of course it wont but still the thought.....

Edited by c00ps

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4 hours ago, cheese said:

Mid-40s with high humidity doesn't even occur except in areas around the Persian Gulf. It would be impossible in the UK, and if mid-40s temperatures did occur in the UK it would almost certainly be a very dry heat - it would have to be to allow such high temperatures to be achieved.

Muscat in Oman is unbearable in the summer, the only place I've been that's hot I didn't like because  it was so difficult 

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2 minutes ago, c00ps said:

It seems our weather has been changed since the SSW due to the Atlantic effectively being cut off.

I did read a post by @Interitus the other day, mentioning that there was no correlation between our Summer's and the SSW. I could be wrong, but I cannot find it now. 

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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I did read a post by @Interitus the other day, mentioning that there was no correlation between our Summer's and the SSW. I could be wrong, but I cannot find it now. 

It does seem a huge coincidence if that's the case

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Toughest day so far this Summer,just heard tired moaning all day from everybody. One poor nurse had to be treated for heat exhaustion on one site today,she was in tears.We need a change,everything is looking and is scorched,nature is suffering,the trees are stressed,the fruit production is woeful,birds in particular are suffering,the lack of running water is a major issue. This week is going to be tough,very tough.

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Todays GFS12Z OP, shows no lethal heat plume first week of August. Good!

Hottest in the South East as usual....

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I swear if I hear, see and read one more report from whinging farmers I’m going to scream! 

Its too hot, too dry, (in most years too cold, wet or windy) crop yields will be down, prices will be up - im sorry but in addition to the ridiculous subsidies they receive clearly farming appears to be the only industry that has no interest in contingency planning, infuriating!! 

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1 hour ago, Alderc said:

I swear if I hear, see and read one more report from whinging farmers I’m going to scream! 

Its too hot, too dry, (in most years too cold, wet or windy) crop yields will be down, prices will be up - im sorry but in addition to the ridiculous subsidies they receive clearly farming appears to be the only industry that has no interest in contingency planning, infuriating!! 

Most farmers are tennants. They dont get the subsidies, the wealthy land owners like dyson and the queen do.

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3 hours ago, markyo said:

Toughest day so far this Summer,just heard tired moaning all day from everybody. One poor nurse had to be treated for heat exhaustion on one site today,she was in tears.We need a change,everything is looking and is scorched,nature is suffering,the trees are stressed,the fruit production is woeful,birds in particular are suffering,the lack of running water is a major issue. This week is going to be tough,very tough.

Is that at your place of work? If so then the working conditions seriously need improving!

The school I work at is particularly vulnerable to trapping and stagnating heat upstairs making some classrooms very difficult to work in. Only the ICT room and library are air-conditioned.

No tired moaning in town today, just folks taking it easy in the heat. Easier to stay cool when you're off work and can seek shade/cooler temps more readily!

Edited by Liima

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So sad what this heatwave is doing to the country. Causing misery day after day; wildfires, parched land, crops ruined and reservoirs drying up - and looking at the EPS this is set to continue and intensify as we head into August. Horrific news for those that love the British countryside when it’s at its most stunning - instead of being a wasteland on fire. A sign of things to come. Sad. 

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3 minutes ago, draztik said:

So sad what this heatwave is doing to the country. Causing misery day after day; wildfires, parched land, crops ruined and reservoirs drying up - and looking at the EPS this is set to continue and intensify as we head into August. Horrific news for those that love the British countryside when it’s at its most stunning - instead of being a wasteland on fire. A sign of things to come. Sad. 

Still miles better than the misery of summers like 2007.

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