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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What would make a 'summer' for you, Cheese - 766 consecutive days with temps above 38C?🔥☺️

 

IMG_1797.JPG

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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I'm more of a wensleydale man myself.

In which case, kindly wear the right trousers next time!:good:

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Some will say I shouldn't complain but there's definitely continuing movement away from something particularly notable.

Now, it still looks like a very nice week in a nice May/June period so I'm not complaining so much from the 'summer feel factor' point of view, but the interest point of view. It seems a rare chance at something more special/notable has been missed again. The only one I can think of that's verified recently is the 'Beast from the east'.

That's the problem in this country, it's so hard to get conditions that even the Pacific NW can get most years, that it matters when it's downgraded, at least to me. In most other mid latitude climates the next thunderstorm, snow, heat, cold etc wouldn't be far away.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Have been away on holiday again so catching up with the MOD thread, and it seems earlier excitement regarding next weeks heat wave was a tad premature, looks warm for sure but thankfully no heat wave.

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8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Have been away on holiday again so catching up with the MOD thread, and it seems earlier excitement regarding next weeks heat wave was a tad premature, looks warm for sure but thankfully no heat wave.

Yes looks good, real heat been downgraded, still 30C possible though for SE, cooler here exposed to the north sea

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes looks good, real heat been downgraded, still 30C possible though for SE, cooler here exposed to the north sea

Aye summers over ,miserable 30 c ,  so disappointed 😔 always next year I suppose..

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42 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Some will say I shouldn't complain but there's definitely continuing movement away from something particularly notable.

Now, it still looks like a very nice week in a nice May/June period so I'm not complaining so much from the 'summer feel factor' point of view, but the interest point of view. It seems a rare chance at something more special/notable has been missed again. The only one I can think of that's verified recently is the 'Beast from the east'.

That's the problem in this country, it's so hard to get conditions that even the Pacific NW can get most years, that it matters when it's downgraded, at least to me. In most other mid latitude climates the next thunderstorm, snow, heat, cold etc wouldn't be far away.

Seems like we're alone in that thinking. Where have all the weather enthusiasts gone?

Edited by cheese

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47 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes looks good, real heat been downgraded, still 30C possible though for SE, cooler here exposed to the north sea

Looking at what the experts are predicting for my area in Southern England next week:

Mon max 26

Tue max  24

Wed max 22

Thu max  27

Fri max 25

Be interesting to see if a 30 pops up somewhere as you say.

Wont be West Yorkshire, that's for sure.

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2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

If theres a phrase which annoys me the most it is this "Only the far North/North West".

 

Meaning north west Ireland 😂

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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

great temps Dave, no-one can complain at that

Nope. no complaints from me, its late June after all and not sizzling.

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2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Meaning north west Ireland 😂

Which is just as west as the outer Hebrides. I forget that myself some times..

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I was also going to post that you can see the change for example by comparing last night's t t+144 (or even t+120) to today's 12z t+126 (or t+102)
GFSOPEU18_144_1.pngGFSOPEU12_126_1.png
At that range with all models similar you can sort of be forgiven for believing it. Now the high is orientated less favourably and weaker, and open to lasting less long. Hopefully it's not a precedent, I've known downgrades like this to seem like a theme for the season.

ECM ensembles far less good than last nights, that also had +14C 850's in the south at t+216. Today's have lost the +12 line by T+168, almost t+144.

Also, the Met Office only forecasting 20C here from Wednesday's chart (which looks good still) !
GFSOPEU12_99_1.png

The highest is 25/24C on Thursday/Friday. So unless they are significantly overestimating the effect of sea breezes etc, it looks like I may only get a few 'very warm' days anyway. The North coast is forecast to be a lot warmer of course.
I haven't reached 30C here in my records starting in 2007. We are often moderated by the sea but it's still about time it happened.

Hopefully this post ends up looking a bit silly and we get a great spell and/or summer.

4 hours ago, cheese said:

Seems like we're alone in that thinking. Where have all the weather enthusiasts gone?

Sometimes does seem like there's a lot of 'fair weather' folk about, nothing wrong with that of course but surely they can understand us finding extremes interesting.

Edited by Evening thunder
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3 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Which is just as west as the outer Hebrides. I forget that myself some times..

Lol , a friend of mine from cork was somewhat amazed by Cumbrias dry climate 😳

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I've been checking the Met Office forecast for next week here and it's not looking so great now - whereas before they had sunshine every day, now they have low cloud lasting until the afternoon. I've had this sinking feeling since the easterlies first appeared in the model output and I'm afraid I'm going to be vindicated yet again.

I also checked the sunshine stats for Leeming and they are still sub-100 hours for the entire month, a mere 60% of the monthly average and I suspect it will still be comfortably below average by the end of the month.

Really cannot wait for June to be over - always knew it was my least favourite summer month for a reason. Low cloud is practically never an issue in July, August or September.

Edited by cheese

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FANTASTIC WEEK AHEAD!

and if this is all we get, its still makes it a better summer then 11/12 previous.

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3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

FANTASTIC WEEK AHEAD!

and if this is all we get, its still makes it a better summer then 11/12 previous.

Indeed, a truly wonderful week coming up of HOT summer weather with very little cloud about- I also think the temperatures could get higher than currently predicted due to the dry ground.

It reminds me a lot of the setup on the week of July 17th 2006. The Sunday was very similar to today with a cool night (single figures widely) and low dew point, before warming up to the mid 20s in the afternoon with very strong sunshine.

The difference then to now was it was 3-4 weeks later so heat had more time to build up, SSTs higher and the ground had dried up even more than now. So temps won't get that high but still above 28C for many from Tuesday- definitely in the hot category.

I've learnt by now that no matter how good the setup, astonishingly you will still get people moaning. Just think guys, we could have a 2007 repeat! Just get out and enjoy it.

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consistency over time is what you should be looking for from the models, getting over exited about a single run in isolation (showing blizzards or heat waves) will lead to disappointment..... Again:)

Just my opinion of course.

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Indeed, a truly wonderful week coming up of HOT summer weather with very little cloud about- I also think the temperatures could get higher than currently predicted due to the dry ground.

It reminds me a lot of the setup on the week of July 17th 2006. The Sunday was very similar to today with a cool night (single figures widely) and low dew point, before warming up to the mid 20s in the afternoon with very strong sunshine.

The difference then to now was it was 3-4 weeks later so heat had more time to build up, SSTs higher and the ground had dried up even more than now. So temps won't get that high but still above 28C for many from Tuesday- definitely in the hot category.

I've learnt by now that no matter how good the setup, astonishingly you will still get people moaning. Just think guys, we could have a 2007 repeat! Just get out and enjoy it.

the good news is that imho this is only the first course, lol, i fully expect, based on past hot summers and no hint of a pattern change, that the main course will emerge by mid july when a lengthy hot spell will surpass this on.

it must be remembered that even in 76, 83, 95 etc it wasnt 'hot' every day for 2 months! (or longer), there were periods of less sunny, less hot, spells

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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

the good news is that imho this is only the first course, lol, i fully expect, based on past hot summers and no hint of a pattern change, that the main course will emerge by mid july when a lengthy hot spell will surpass this on.

it must be remembered that even in 76, 83, 95 etc it wasnt 'hot' every day for 2 months! (or longer), there were periods of less sunny, less hot, spells

Yes agreed and this summer is ticking all the boxes in terms of patterns of the classic summers of the past- an early hot spell in April/ early May (1995, 2003, 2006 had notable spells), a warm, dry June and it seems nearly all of them have a hot spell at the end of June/beginning of July which then leads into a longer spell of hot weather after a break of slightly cooler conditions.

It's certainly rare to get a spell such as this that then isn't repeated later on- often after only a short break of cooler weather.

Seems to be that the 'default' temperatures are higher this year as well. So even if we lose the heat I imagine temps will be above average still. 

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14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes agreed and this summer is ticking all the boxes in terms of patterns of the classic summers of the past- an early hot spell in April/ early May (1995, 2003, 2006 had notable spells), a warm, dry June and it seems nearly all of them have a hot spell at the end of June/beginning of July which then leads into a longer spell of hot weather after a break of slightly cooler conditions.

It's certainly rare to get a spell such as this that then isn't repeated later on- often after only a short break of cooler weather.

Seems to be that the 'default' temperatures are higher this year as well. So even if we lose the heat I imagine temps will be above average still. 

you missed out 76, 90, too..lol. they had early hot spells before a hot dry summer.

i cannot think of a time when we had a hot end to june, then nothing else. of course this isnt a 'thing', an undeniable rule, and this could be the only hot spell we get, but imho its unlikely.

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11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

you missed out 76, 90, too..lol. they had early hot spells before a hot dry summer.

i cannot think of a time when we had a hot end to june, then nothing else. of course this isnt a 'thing', an undeniable rule, and this could be the only hot spell we get, but imho its unlikely.

I was in Scotty in 1992 - it was fantastic (up near 28C) right up until I went camping, on St Swithun's Day - the rest, as they say, is history!🌬️⛈️And didn't 2005 also get off to an absolute flyer, only to be followed by a July and August to forget? I don't know. I've forgotten!:oops:

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was in Scotty in 1992 - it was fantastic (up near 28C) right up until I went camping, on St Swithun's Day - the rest, as they say, is history!🌬️⛈️And didn't 2005 also get off to an absolute flyer, only to be followed by a July and August to forget? I don't know. I've forgotten!:oops:

tbh i dont know... maybe ive forgotten them, i cannot remember a week long hot spell though in those years. i think (like last year) there were possibly 1-2 day hot bits.

 

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