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2 hours ago, daz_4 said:

ECM has max. temperature of -9C for my location on Sunday with windchill of -20C and heavy snow. Thanks but no thanks. I'm in spring mode already :cray:

Same here. That would actually beat the recent bitter cold spell in terms of maxima (the best we managed was -7C).

It got up to 18C today. No word of a lie, there was almost a tropical feel in the air when it started belting down in the afternoon, such was the humidity.

This is developing into a quite bonkers March. I wouldn't bet against it being 25C before the month is out.

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5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree, but want this beast too, after the beast, wish it could go straight to warm

I said the same last time to be fair and I still enjoyed the snow, lol. Maybe this month will be like March 2013? And if we got another summer like 2013 I'd be very happy!

Edited by cheese
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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Maybe you should take the time to look at the key variables before making such assumptions.

With snow the most important things are dew point and air temperature. If T850s are above 0C then things get more complicated but they are not.

Rule of thumb that works much of the time. If the air temperature plus dew point is around 1C or lower in will fall as snow

image.thumb.png.760dba99d95812005b6dc936e9bc1380.png Dew points are around -5C or lower for many
image.thumb.png.7613850ae154a8b64e23a408cd338a71.png Temperatures close to freezing almost everywhere on Sunday, maybe a few areas in the far south could hit 3C

So for everywhere except the far SW the air temp + dew point is below zero. Uppers matter less when we are dealing with continental airmasses.

I don't wish to cause an argument, but this 'rule of thumb' stuff is nonsense when talking about snow dynamics.

A perfect reasoning for this was the last cold spell. I had temperatures of below -2C, dewpoints below -3C and wetbulb temperatures of -2C and snow rapidly became freezing rain.

 

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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I don't wish to cause an argument, but this 'rule of thumb' stuff is nonsense when talking about snow dynamics.

A perfect reasoning for this was the last cold spell. I had temperatures of below -2C, dewpoints below -3C and wetbulb temperatures of -2C and snow rapidly became freezing rain.

 

Yup there was freezing rain but remember the uppers from storm Emma? 

CFSR_1_2018030200_2.png

Above zero when that happened.

As I mentioned at the top of the post its when uppers get above 0C that the rule of thumb I referred to gets complicated.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup there was freezing rain but remember the uppers from storm Emma?

CFSR_1_2018030200_2.png

Above zero when that happened.

No they weren't. I was checking the Netweather radar which overlays T850's - Uppers were circa -2. I posted about this in the SW regional thread, and what dynamics can cause freezing rain. It was down to rising thickness heights. This is exactly why there is no rule of thumb.

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

No they weren't. I was checking the Netweather radar which overlays T850's - Uppers were circa -2. I posted about this in the SW regional thread, and what dynamics can cause freezing rain. It was down to rising thickness heights. This is exactly why there is no rule of thumb.

 Can you get that from the archive? because the historical chart I linked has the 0C isortherm further north and I remember that was the consensual forecast at the time and it was the same time it turned to freezing rain. Also Purbeck is very near the coast... so that adds a further complication.

Besides its dew points and upper atmospheric temperatures are colder then that and the ECM has it all falling as snow. A rule of thumb isn't bulletproof, it just offers a quick way to make a calculation which is more informed then a post which just goes into panic over uppers around -4C. Other factors are more important.

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1 minute ago, Matthew. said:

Here’s the beast from the east part 3 in summer:yahoo:

E059CB19-6310-4C11-8F5A-303D00880ACE.jpeg

Was thinking about this earlier. If these easterlies carried on in the summer  they'd be so hot

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Have to be honest sometimes the MOD thread gets on my nerves when a cold spell is on its way.

If you post a chart suggesting little snow then members moan and suggest the model is rubbish. Yet these are the same people who will come back to this thread in a few days time and moan at the lack of snow. They will then moan about members overhyping and misleading other members in the MOD thread.

This happens everytime and becomes tiresome.

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15 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Have to be honest sometimes the MOD thread gets on my nerves when a cold spell is on its way.

If you post a chart suggesting little snow then members moan and suggest the model is rubbish. Yet these are the same people who will come back to this thread in a few days time and moan at the lack of snow. They will then moan about members overhyping and misleading other members in the MOD thread.

This happens everytime and becomes tiresome.

Almost as tiersome as people moaning about people moaning...... 

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Much that I love cold and snow I’m sat in my car having lunch with sun on me and it’s kind of nice, if the models are anything to go by we are in for some shock to the system. Hopefully this will go out with a bang and then dare I say bring on spring?

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17 hours ago, Sweatyman said:

Was thinking about this earlier. If these easterlies carried on in the summer  they'd be so hot

A June like 2009 - very easterly and often warm to very warm, not hot of course until the winds turned southeasterly to southerly at the end of the month.

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7 minutes ago, cheese said:

A cloudy, bitter, breezy day here - I am thoroughly fed up of this weather.

Currently 3 degrees with fog at Leeds/Bradford airport, 11 degrees and bright 43 miles away at Manchester airport. Quite springlike this side of the Pennines at the moment.

Edited by Interitus
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14 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Currently 3 degrees with fog at Leeds/Bradford airport, 11 degrees and bright 43 miles away at Manchester airport. Quite springlike this side of the Pennines at the moment.

Hit 14c -15c today, with a slight breeze out there it's been very pleasant in that sunshine in the Midlands 8)

Then it's all change!!! With cold air/winds arriving from the east overnight..... IMBY it'll be a scenario of 14c today to a max of -0C come tomorrow and a wind chill of -10

One thing that intrigues me with this is that normally temperatures gradually drop over a couple of days.....Not this time....IT'LL BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM...I will say.

24-778UK_kie8.GIF27-778UK_bqi6.GIF

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