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4 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just posted this in the regional but thought I would post it here aswell.

Overall a pretty decent cold spell with temps never getting above freezing this week and many days of snow actually falling. Currently have a very decent covering here as photos from other members in Peterborough have shown. Only negative comments is I cannot help thinking to myself what if?

What if during Wednesday when the coldest upper temps, lowest thickness values were over the UK, the winds were a ENE,ly rather than the ESE,ly? All the snow that fell across Scotland/NE England would of hit here instead?

What if the cold spell occurred in Dec/Jan? even colder temps and more importantly the snowfall would of been much greater due to warmer N Sea SSTs.

So whilst a decent cold spell it still didn't match those E,lys I remember in the 1980s especially with regards to convective snowfall.

Yes, to add to that as well, not only did winds veering SE mean snow fell in other areas, it also cut short the cold spell, just 24-48 hours more from a direct Easterly and I would have been looking at level snow in terms of feet instead of just drifts.

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12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just posted this in the regional but thought I would post it here aswell.

Overall a pretty decent cold spell with temps never getting above freezing this week and many days of snow actually falling. Currently have a very decent covering here as photos from other members in Peterborough have shown. Only negative comments is I cannot help thinking to myself what if?

What if during Wednesday when the coldest upper temps, lowest thickness values were over the UK, the winds were a ENE,ly rather than the ESE,ly? All the snow that fell across Scotland/NE England would of hit here instead?

What if the cold spell occurred in Dec/Jan? even colder temps and more importantly the snowfall would of been much greater due to warmer N Sea SSTs.

So whilst a decent cold spell it still didn't match those E,lys I remember in the 1980s especially with regards to convective snowfall.

I hear what you're saying, but you can apply that philosophy to the whole of life, but there is only what has been and what is...

Edited by ribster
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I for one, have loved this cold spell. Would have liked longer but hey ho what I would like and what I get have and always will be two different things..... Not sure I like this "no mans land" legacy though. It's meh tbh either bring on the spring or bring back the snow and cold not interested in this  inbetween crap in the slightest 

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12 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I for one, have loved this cold spell. Would have liked longer but hey ho what I would like and what I get have and always will be two different things..... Not sure I like this "no mans land" legacy though. It's meh tbh either bring on the spring or bring back the snow and cold not interested in this  inbetween crap in the slightest 

Must admit the current output for next week isn't my cup of tea. However hints from the models that maybe the following week might prove more interesting. We are very unlikely to see a return of the type of cold spell we have just experienced. We could however see more snow events especially if precipitation falls during the night.

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38 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I for one, have loved this cold spell. Would have liked longer but hey ho what I would like and what I get have and always will be two different things..... Not sure I like this "no mans land" legacy though. It's meh tbh either bring on the spring or bring back the snow and cold not interested in this  inbetween crap in the slightest 

Yes - I agree. But what a wonderful week overall - if you like snow and ice chaos that is. I was nervous to start, and then Thurs/Fri delivered big time. Going to take a walk out again in a minute - the thaw has started, and by the end of tomorrow it will be melting fast.

Over the years I have come to the conclusion that winter in the south is a 15th Dec to 15th March affair. The outer edges of that bracket are fraught with difficulty in terms of getting proper cold, though in the right setup it can happen. Unfortunately I dont see it over the next 10 days, and so winter is coming to an end for me. Always sad to lose the edge of excitement of model and chart interpretation - and even more sad to see the snow melt - but it has to happen. :-)

I will wait a week or so and then put together a final hindcast post and put it on the mod thread, if they will allow it to stay. A huge amount has happened his season and many many lessons learned and experience gained. My faith in cold winters has been restored somewhat after 4 average to poor ones, and we have been very close this season to an extended cold spell in the second half. As we move into the colder side of the 11 year solar cycle and see the impact of extreme arctic ice melt I think we are going to have some significant winter weather again at some stage in the next half a dozen years. Next year should be a +QBO and if I were to take a bet on it I'd suggest a Nino phase in the pacific, though there is plenty of time for that to change and far far too early to start pulling analogues out the cupboard.

However - the feeling across the pond is that the last time we had a global wave and pressure pattern like the current one in March was 1962. I'll leave it there. :-)

More once I've put my thoughts together in detail and had a chance to enjoy the snow for a last day or two. I hope others can still get some enjoyment too this week - the north looks set to hang on to winter for another week, just as it should be. :-)

Edited by Catacol
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Yes - I agree. But what a wonderful week overall - if you like snow and ice chaos that is. I was nervous to start, and then Thurs/Fri delivered big time. Going to take a walk out again in a minute - the thaw has started, and by the end of tomorrow it will be melting fast.

Over the years I have come to the conclusion that winter in the south is a 15th Dec to 15th March affair. The outer edges of that bracket are fraught with difficulty in terms of getting proper cold, though in the right setup it can happen. Unfortunately I dont see it over the next 10 days, and so winter is coming to an end for me. Always sad to lose the edge of excitement of model and chart interpretation - and even more sad to see the snow melt - but it has to happen. :-)

I will wait a week or so and then put together a final hindcast post and put it on the mod thread, if they will allow it to stay. A huge amount has happened his season and many many lessons learned and experience gained. My faith in cold winters has been restored somewhat after 4 average to poor ones, and we have been very close this season to an extended cold spell in the second half. As we move into the colder side of the 11 year solar cycle and see the impact of extreme arctic ice melt I think we are going to have some significant winter weather again at some stage in the next half a dozen years. Next year should be a +QBO and if I were to take a bet on it I'd suggest a Nino phase in the pacific, though there is plenty of time for that to change and far far too early to start pulling analogues out the cupboard.

However - the feeling across the pond is that the last time we had a global wave and pressure pattern like the current one in March was 1962. I'll leave it there. :-)

More once I've put my thoughts together in detail and had a chance to enjoy the snow for a last day or two. I hope others can still get some enjoyment too this week - the north looks set to hang on to winter for another week, just as it should be. :-)

Hi Catacol!

I'd agree wholeheartedly that the type of cold wave we're in will not be absent from our weathers over the coming years but I'm not a comfy at the prospect as you appear to be!

If I have it right the root of all this was an extreme MJO shift into the pacific that was 4 std dev's from the average? A couple of years earlier we saw the QBO refuse to reverse due to 'interference' instigated by 'odd' upper level winds crashing the equator.

We all know what the 10mb winds have been doing in autumn/earlier winter since the start of the decade and such behaviours must have impact on weathers/air masses below?

Such see-sawing /penduluming of the atmosphere, if driven ever more erratic by a growing forcing , will lead to some pretty messed up weather down at ground level?

The impacts across the arctic are seeing areas receiving ever more energy across summer and then this 'extra' energy is then flowing into the upper atmosphere every re-freeze as the oceans cool before they can begin to freeze.

This 'jolt' can either calm or augment that already existing  and so lead to benign weathers or extreme weathers?

I just worry about how extremes will impact our world over the coming years. Rainfall,drought.wind.cold all will put strains/costs on our day to day lives.

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9 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hi Catacol!

I'd agree wholeheartedly that the type of cold wave we're in will not be absent from our weathers over the coming years but I'm not a comfy at the prospect as you appear to be!

If I have it right the root of all this was an extreme MJO shift into the pacific that was 4 std dev's from the average? A couple of years earlier we saw the QBO refuse to reverse due to 'interference' instigated by 'odd' upper level winds crashing the equator.

We all know what the 10mb winds have been doing in autumn/earlier winter since the start of the decade and such behaviours must have impact on weathers/air masses below?

Such see-sawing /penduluming of the atmosphere, if driven ever more erratic by a growing forcing , will lead to some pretty messed up weather down at ground level?

The impacts across the arctic are seeing areas receiving ever more energy across summer and then this 'extra' energy is then flowing into the upper atmosphere every re-freeze as the oceans cool before they can begin to freeze.

This 'jolt' can either calm or augment that already existing  and so lead to benign weathers or extreme weathers?

I just worry about how extremes will impact our world over the coming years. Rainfall,drought.wind.cold all will put strains/costs on our day to day lives.

I agree whole heartedly with this. I sound cavalier (because extreme weather excites me) but I think we are starting to see regularly now the impact of modern climate trends. I am most concerned/interested by the situation in the arctic though all is interconnected in some respect, and the big MJO cycles this season on top of strange QBO behaviour last season on top of a monster Nino the year before is all rather significant in my mind. I think as we move into a low solar cycle - possibly a big minimum (though I wouldnt suggest I have any great knowledge of solar trends) we could see more of these severe winter episodes - on top of the potential for flooding and also significant heat waves. Where the apparent slow down in the gulf stream fits I dont know... but it all suggests more extremes more often.

We may simply have to accept that "average" weather will be less the norm, and learn to deal with it. Frankly there is very little we can do to change anything in the short term, and I dont see a medium term solution either. Our children and grandchildren have already had their hand dealt. 

Political and economic arguments are for another thread another day... but more extreme episodes of winter weather, whatever the context, will at least keep life interesting!! In the meantime I have decided to spend the sticky warm season of summer (yuck) reading up on two areas specifically: arctic ice loss and solar influences on the jet stream. I know you are a bit of an ice expert and enthusiast - anything you could draw my attention to regarding the arctic would be appreciated. 

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I keep seeing in regional threads "goodbye to winter see you all again next November.

If I'm not mistaken its only first week in March and there's about another 8 weeks where we could see some snow. 

Bit of a warm up this week but the cold air is always lurking to our North and I've a feeling it will flood back South eventually. 

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I remember during the nineties and early millennium March was almost guaranteed to give an early taste of summer , I remember having a BBQ in one of these spells . cant see that this year !   although doesn't the long range point to a warmer than normal April and May after a cold March ?     

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A massive letdown here.Missed out on the snow,just a dusting.

Always on the fringes ,whatever angle the snow came from.

You couldn’t make it up,so frustrating.

Thats the last time I ever go chasing a cold spell in the winter ever again.

First Siberian Blast for over 20 years as well.

Thats me done here.Over and out.

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The predicted thaw is in full swing, even the drifts are going, birds are singing, the bus service has resumed, lots of puddles, blue sky and occasional sunbeams. The thing I will miss most apart from the actual snow and sledging is that interesting weather became the News, whole TV shows were dedicated to the Beast from the East, and people got to show generosity and compassion for each other in abundance.

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3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

A massive letdown here.Missed out on the snow,just a dusting.

Always on the fringes ,whatever angle the snow came from.

You couldn’t make it up,so frustrating.

Thats the last time I ever go chasing a cold spell in the winter ever again.

First Siberian Blast for over 20 years as well.

Thats me done here.Over and out.

I felt like that during the 2010 winter when I missed out many times. I also missed the heaviest snowfall during our recent cold spell as RAF Wittering had over 30cm of snowfall and is only 20 miles away.

Still this won't put me off chasing next winter because you will always get winners and losers.

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I do wish people would stop referring to standard early springtime weather as "mild" like as if its still mid-Winter.   We have now passed the coldest three months of the year so its bound to start feeling slightly warmer at some point afterwards. If it feels "mild" then thats just average for spring time. Normal average temperatures in March would be considered mild had it been December.  

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I just hope that next winter on here isn’t the same people whining 20 times a day, for 3 months solid, about no snow, This cold spell will have hopefully satisfied most coldies for a while. Also puts to bed all the crap posted on here, every year, about the impossibility of getting cold and laying snow after mid February. 

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1 hour ago, cheese said:

Horrible day - slush everywhere. I love snow but the thaw is always painful.

Yes, slush is grim. Was lucky here as it only took a few hours yesterday for the snow to completely disappear. Felt tropical today at 9C!

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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Well March certainly came in like a lion so can we pleeeease see it go out like a Lamb???

My Frogs need to spawn!!!!

The frogs in our garden are happily paring up under the ice. The ice is melting around the edges now and you can see dozens of little heads poking up. 

Counted over 80 clumps of spawn last year so their not doing too bad 

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