Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, Icebox said:

Totally agree NWS every time we get an Easterly in summer I'm always thinking why now, and you can almost guarantee that the Azores or Euro highs disappears from our shores once winter ends... so frustrating. 

The only drawback with winter in summer is that the in-laws won't get stuck in a snow drift enroute

[stainesbloke]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I will of course continue to look at the models but for someone like me who enjoys warm weather in summer and cold and snow in winter my interest is beginning to drain away - for those who proclaim the unpredictabilty of the British climate i would suggest the complete opposite is now the norm.Generally speaking Greenland is home to low pressure in winter and high pressure in summer, for someone like me with my outlined preference thats a disasterous combo..

Yup, good old Blighty where we get perfect Synoptics at completely the wrong time of the year. It happens so often here. I'm not quite as bothered in winter but I'm regularly fed up and frustrated in summer, to the point where I'm in the planning stages of emigrating! Saying that, this winter so far hasn't been too bad, very little Atlantic vileness and lots of high pressure. Could be much worse.

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yup, good old Blighty where we get perfect Synoptics at completely the wrong time of the year. It happens so often here. I'm not quite as bothered in winter but I'm regularly fed up and frustrated in summer, to the point where I'm in the planning stages of emigrating! Saying that, this winter so far hasn't been too bad, very little Atlantic vileness and lots of high pressure. Could be much worse.

Recent summers haven't been too bad though - 2013, 2014, 2016 were all nice with plenty of warm, sunny days. 2015 was a little iffy but far from terrible. Suppose it will depend on where you live in the country as well.

And I agree that this winter has been fine so far - plenty of sunny days recently, no rain or strong wind. Shame that will come to an end soon.

In fact, today has turned out to be another sunny day. 

Edited December 20, 2016 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

Recent summers haven't been too bad though - 2013, 2014, 2016 were all nice with plenty of warm, sunny days. 2015 was a little iffy but far from terrible.

And I agree that this winter has been fine so far - plenty of sunny days recently, no rain or strong wind. Shame that will come to an end soon.

Not warm or sunny enough for my liking. I'm lucky that I get to Spain a few times each summer for a dose of sun. The last half of summer just gone ended up rather decent here, so it does happen, just far too inconsistently. And winter in the UK is usually something to struggle through and endure, most unpleasant. This year so far has been a bit better, like you say though it is going to change...how long for?

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Not warm or sunny enough for my liking. I'm lucky that I get to Spain a few times each summer for a dose of sun. The last half of summer just gone ended up rather decent here, so it does happen, just far too inconsistently. And winter in the UK is usually something to struggle through and endure, most unpleasant. This year so far has been a bit better, like you say though it is going to change...how long for?

Well if you want lots of warm sunshine the UK is the wrong country to live in - that's always been the case though. Why do you think so many Brits live in Spain? It certainly isn't because the economy there is fantastic.. lol

Edited December 20, 2016 by cheese

[Seasonality]

Here is a shamelessly cherry picked perturbation. Enjoy.

[stainesbloke]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Well if you want lots of warm sunshine the UK is the wrong country to live in - that's always been the case though. Why do you think so many Brits live in Spain? It certainly isn't because the economy there is fantastic.. lol

Very true. Same can be said about cold and snow in winter here. Rarely happens. We all know what our frustrating climate is like but doesn't stop us wishing for something more seasonal. I'm not 'throwing in the towel' where this winter is concerned, could well turn out decent in the second half just like summer just gone did.

[Gord]

About a week or so ago, Weather History put a fantastic post in here highlighting how this run of snowless, milder winters we're in isn't necessarily a new thing. Without wishing to get political, I do believe that the Earth is warming up and this is having consequences on our climate. What I'm not sure about yet is the impact this has on the UK's climate. I don't think you can take the period 2000-2016 and base a judgement on that. We need a larger time period if we're going to look at the more local effects of GW.

Anyway, I digress..don't want to spark up a debate on that in here!

As someone who loves history I also wanted to look back and see if I could find any more examples of successive milder winters. By conincidence, a run of mild winters with little snow came to an end exactly 100 years ago. 1900-15 were very poor for cold and snow yet 1916 bucked that trend somewhat by providing some great snowfalls.

I also got interested in the period 1970-76 which looks like another run of rubbish winters? I was born in 78 but I wonder if any older members can recall anything from these winters?

It will be interesting to see how..and when...our current luck with winter weather will end. It will at some point of course, despite a warming planet we will get a cold and snowy spell in the UK again.

The first 16 years of the century is not enough to say that our winters have changed (and out of those 16 winters, at least 3 of them throw a spanner in the works anyway!). Experience is knowledge.

1916 ended a snow drought for many.

1977 looks like it did too on a lesser scale.

You could argue that 2009 did.

So what year will achieve the same next?

2017?

Something to think about during yet another rubbish winter month.

 

Edited December 20, 2016 by Gord

[ArHu3]

18 minutes ago, Gord said:

About a week or so ago, Weather History put a fantastic post in here highlighting how this run of snowless, milder winters we're in isn't necessarily a new thing. Without wishing to get political, I do believe that the Earth is warming up and this is having consequences on our climate. What I'm not sure about yet is the impact this has on the UK's climate. I don't think you can take the period 2000-2016 and base a judgement on that. We need a larger time period if we're going to look at the more local effects of GW.

Anyway, I digress..don't want to spark up a debate on that in here!

As someone who loves history I also wanted to look back and see if I could find any more examples of successive milder winters. By conincidence, a run of mild winters with little snow came to an end exactly 100 years ago. 1900-15 were very poor for cold and snow yet 1916 bucked that trend somewhat by providing some great snowfalls.

I also got interested in the period 1970-76 which looks like another run of rubbish winters? I was born in 78 but I wonder if any older members can recall anything from these winters?

It will be interesting to see how..and when...our current luck with winter weather will end. It will at some point of course, despite a warming planet we will get a cold and snowy spell in the UK again.

The first 16 years of the century is not enough to say that our winters have changed (and out of those 16 winters, at least 3 of them throw a spanner in the works anyway!). Experience is knowledge.

1916 ended a snow drought for many.

1977 looks like it did too on a lesser scale.

You could argue that 2009 did.

So what year will achieve the same next?

2017?

Something to think about during yet another rubbish winter month.

 

There is a relation with +nao (see last year's stratosphere thread) and the decreasing phase of the solar cycle 11 yr, the 30 year or so pacific decadal oscillation (+pdo cold for us see wiki) also seems a long term climate influencer.

 

I'm on mobile so can't easily give links but is easy to find

Edited December 20, 2016 by ArHu3

[ArHu3]

34 minutes ago, Gord said:

Please delete 

Edited December 20, 2016 by ArHu3
Delete

[Lampostwatcher]

One thing i gave up on 5 years ago now was listening to the met office lrf 's complete waste of time also i gave up on beliving anything the bbc weather men forecast beyond 4 days 

Many many ocasions they cant even get 3 days inadvance right

Ive been rarely disaponted since

 

[sundog]

26 minutes ago, Gord said:

 

1916 ended a snow drought for many.

1977 looks like it did too on a lesser scale.

You could argue that 2009 did.

So what year will achieve the same next?

2017?

Something to think about during yet another rubbish winter month.

 

Id go for 2019.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Gustywind]

48 minutes ago, Gord said:

About a week or so ago, Weather History put a fantastic post in here highlighting how this run of snowless, milder winters we're in isn't necessarily a new thing. Without wishing to get political, I do believe that the Earth is warming up and this is having consequences on our climate. What I'm not sure about yet is the impact this has on the UK's climate. I don't think you can take the period 2000-2016 and base a judgement on that. We need a larger time period if we're going to look at the more local effects of GW.

Anyway, I digress..don't want to spark up a debate on that in here!

As someone who loves history I also wanted to look back and see if I could find any more examples of successive milder winters. By conincidence, a run of mild winters with little snow came to an end exactly 100 years ago. 1900-15 were very poor for cold and snow yet 1916 bucked that trend somewhat by providing some great snowfalls.

I also got interested in the period 1970-76 which looks like another run of rubbish winters? I was born in 78 but I wonder if any older members can recall anything from these winters?

It will be interesting to see how..and when...our current luck with winter weather will end. It will at some point of course, despite a warming planet we will get a cold and snowy spell in the UK again.

The first 16 years of the century is not enough to say that our winters have changed (and out of those 16 winters, at least 3 of them throw a spanner in the works anyway!). Experience is knowledge.

1916 ended a snow drought for many.

1977 looks like it did too on a lesser scale.

You could argue that 2009 did.

So what year will achieve the same next?

2017?

Something to think about during yet another rubbish winter month.

 

Agree with some of this, there will always be variability and different phases, be that +NAO or -NAO, or cold/warm Atlantic SST, however there is no doubt our climate is warming and for a country where snow has often been borderline, this is a problem. We seem to be getting a run of very cold polar vortices in winter also, I wonder if this is a natural response to lower sea ice? This fuels a stronger jet in winter.

We talk about how good a month Jan 10 was for cold, with a CET of 1.4c, but this was only the 64th coldest Jan on record. How many top 10 warmest months have we had since 2000 vs. top 10 coldest? I'm thinking maybe Dec 10 and March 13 fall into top 10s for cold, how many warm? Quite a few more I reckon.

So yes natural variability will mean we still get the occasional cold winter month, but nothing like we've had in the past.

The upside is that our summers are warming up, so it's not all doom and gloom. Snow however is becoming an increasingly endangered species for central/southern England in particular, a trend likely to continue.

[Ben Lewis]

49 minutes ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

One thing i gave up on 5 years ago now was listening to the met office lrf 's complete waste of time also i gave up on beliving anything the bbc weather men forecast beyond 4 days 

Many many ocasions they cant even get 3 days inadvance right

Ive been rarely disaponted since

 

Whilst i agree to a point, I'm not sure we should give up entirely, the BBC are great for 2 days ahead but I do agree with you when it comes to extended forecasts - Why bother.

I still find fascinating how long range predictions can be so wrong. I mean in this day and age with all the technology that's fed: Computers/Smart Phones/ Computers in cars/ digital technology/ Bluetooth/WiFi/ space missions/ aviation... The list goes on...How we haven't managed to build a model that can produce a solid 2 weeks of weather forecasting fairly accurately and know how to read Earths turbulent atmosphere

I wonder if that day will ever come or whether mother nature will always win the battle against technology and continue to lead computer models up the garden path.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

One thing i gave up on 5 years ago now was listening to the met office lrf 's complete waste of time also i gave up on beliving anything the bbc weather men forecast beyond 4 days 

Many many ocasions they cant even get 3 days inadvance right

Ive been rarely disaponted since

 

And the 'wonderfully accurate and true' alternative to the BBC is...?

[Lampostwatcher]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the 'wonderfully accurate and true' alternative to the BBC is...?

Looking out the window lol

[Lampostwatcher]

19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the 'wonderfully accurate and true' alternative to the BBC is...?

Looking out the window lol

[Summer Sun]

Sky news doing a live FB stream this afternoon for the storm Friday into Saturday they also showed Sunday for most it looks mild, dry, and windy with rain quite isolated and cloud more broken in the east

[daz_4]

We all know the script. The so called tease phase is now underway and downgrade/shift to east phase will follow shortly after until we are left with nothing. 

Edited December 20, 2016 by daz_4

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

We all know the script. The so called tease phase is now underway and downgrade/shift to east phase will follow shortly after until we are left with nothing. 

hope Kvitova is okay btw! 

this is one long drawn southerly! milder than it looks though, any shift west could be cold, deep FI though

[Tonyinhampshire]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Sky news doing a live FB stream this afternoon for the storm Friday into Saturday they also showed Sunday for most it looks mild, dry, and windy with rain quite isolated and cloud more broken in the east

And down here in Hampshire, we will wake up the next day and say what was all the fuss about

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope Kvitova is okay btw! 

this is one long drawn southerly! milder than it looks though, any shift west could be cold, deep FI though

 

Edited December 20, 2016 by Tonyinhampshire
Reply to wrong post

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

One thinks of the an analogy that can be linked to the recent USA Clinton expectations but after all was said and done, we were left with the pants.

Eh?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe date warmth records broken if GEM comes off?