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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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11 hours ago, Catacol said:

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

I agree with your recent posts and others about how frustrating this would be if the low behaves all wrong and we miss this 'golden ticket' for a major non-marginal event in the S/SW.

Although the models have trended slightly in the right direction, we may see snow on Friday too or a right mess of snow/sleet/rain/freezing rain.
I can probably be content with that (Well I'll probably have to be lol) at least if we get a sub zero, windy, hopefully at least a bit snowy Thursday. Nice to see all of the SW getting a good 'freeze' at night to, not just the prone lower areas leaving some hills struggling to get much below zero.

I suppose it's a bit strange in a way. The only weather that exists is what actually happens but if we hadn't seen what 'could have been' from some computes, we would probably be happier with what is happening.

This area seems to do ok for frost at least in more prone areas, but snow is the hard bit.

How did you do in 2010 and 2009? Here December 2010 had nearly a foot of snow on the 20th which lay around until the 26th (lying snow from the 17-26th in total), January gave 6cm lasting for several days though there was a bit more towards your area I thought (before that, it was several dustings with 2cm max for my house over 10 years!) 
February 2009 was a disappointment at my low level house but nearby hills had 6 inches and I saw over a foot in Mid Devon.
Jan 2013 also a disappointment on low lying windward coasts, more inland I think but I was in Surrey and only saw 1 day before being whisked away on a university field trip to South Spain. 

I've still yet to seen a proper windy snowy front or 'blizzard' like we used to get occasionally. Had a couple 'infamous' misses.

Funnily enough, for the South Devon and Cornwall coasts that missed out on most of the above, Tomorrow could be your day for something.

Edited by Evening thunder
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An awful lot of excitement about this easterly recently. 

“It’s going to be like Jan 1987”, “We’re going to get buried”. 

At present we have less than 1cm in Wakefield. Feb 1991 it ain’t :sorry:.

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2 hours ago, Wizzobell said:

I keep hearing about the South’s lack of snow but I’m based in S Yorks and we haven’t had snow since 2010. 

The reality is that we are all snow starved and therefore ramp at the possibility of snow even so called experts on the model thread.

The models really struggle with our island and can simply pick a broad trend with v little detailed accuracy even at v short time periods hence we have an amber warning but we don’t even have a covering of snow. 

After another failed bout of snowmaggedon predictions I think I’m going to stick to looking out of the window 

Similar setup to 1978. I was a child then. I recall rain on coast. Snow one mile inland. We have had snow this year on the coast/beach. 1 inch and was unexpected. I think it is the Solent microclimate. On the occasions we have had snow, most was iunexpected and when it was forecast, it often rained.

Edited by Tonyinhampshire
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1 minute ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Are blizzards still a major issue for later in the week and if so where are they going to affect?

SW England, Wales and all of Ireland

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

An awful lot of excitement about this easterly recently. 

“It’s going to be like Jan 1987”, “We’re going to get buried”. 

At present we have less than 1cm in Wakefield. Feb 1991 it ain’t :sorry:.

I'm with you on that one mate...a total non-event here in God's own county....don't get me wrong i love watching outputs of 'eye-candy' charts and a good snow event, but this has been ramped up beyond belief by many on here ( historic, brutal cold,well into March, ...the ramps went on and on...) and is rapidly turning into a feline cat rather than a beast that will fizzle out into a cold/cool damp/wet ending....( how i would love to be proved wrong mind you but the writing is on the wall so to speak and another damp squib of a winter comes and goes )...just goes to show you can't trust the model outputs many days in advance, even in this age of high tech super computers !!..nature will be whatever it wants...and predicting it's outcome (accurately), even a short time into the future is nigh on impossible !!

Edited by K9
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22 minutes ago, K9 said:

I'm with you on that one mate...a total non-event here in God's own county....don't get me wrong i love watching outputs of 'eye-candy' charts and a good snow event, but this has been ramped up beyond belief by many on here ( historic, brutal cold,well into March, ...the ramps went on and on...) and is rapidly turning into a feline cat rather than a beast that will fizzle out into a cold/cool damp/wet ending....( how i would love to be proved wrong mind you but the writing is on the wall so to speak and another damp squib of a winter comes and goes )...just goes to show you can't trust the model outputs many days in advance, even in this age of high tech super computers !!..nature will be whatever it wants...and predicting it's outcome (accurately), even a short time into the future is nigh on impossible !!

Spot on. I've spent an awful lot of time on the MOD this winter (since November in fact!) cold chasing, and what we've ended up with today is disappointing. Appreciate there's more of the week to come. It's a shame we didn't get this SSW in January.

I think next winter I'll keep an eye on the charts and Met Office forecast but avoid the MOD thread. The SSW and its effect on pressure patterns is interesting to see, but ultimately we've ended up with a couple of centimetres of snow (as it stands).

All I want is another Feb 1991 in this neck of the woods and I'll die happy!

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may i say what a shockingly bad met office forecast for today, so far we have had 3/4 heavy snow showers, was due to be dry, highest temp should have been -1c, its currently 2.7c and a rapid thaw going on, no windchill to speak of, chilly cpl of days yes, a big freeze, far from it

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2 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

An awful lot of excitement about this easterly recently. 

“It’s going to be like Jan 1987”, “We’re going to get buried”. 

At present we have less than 1cm in Wakefield. Feb 1991 it ain’t :sorry:.

Doesn't even look like it will be a 2013 let alone another random year like some like to mention when snow arrives

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2 minutes ago, markyo said:

Oh bless them,the Southern Softies get a dusting of snow and it's headline news...happens everytime!:nonono:

Ey oop lad, least tha's not fallen into t'regional cliche stuff, eh?  Any road, where's me whippet, could do wi' a walk round t'derelict factry before me dinner as it's nearly time to fire oop t'stove and get t'black puddin' on't go. 

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9 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

may i say what a shockingly bad met office forecast for today, so far we have had 3/4 heavy snow showers, was due to be dry, highest temp should have been -1c, its currently 2.7c and a rapid thaw going on, no windchill to speak of, chilly cpl of days yes, a big freeze, far from it

Goodness knows where you got your forecast from the little picc shows sunshine and snow showers for Spalding when I looked and this text for east midlands which is your area

Today:

Snow showers becoming more frequent through the day, interspersed with bright spells, the showers occasionally heavy with accumulations likely. It will be a very cold day, with an increasing wind chill as easterly winds gradually strengthen. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

this is the link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcruk9x9k#?date=2018-02-27

Edited by johnholmes
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6 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

may i say what a shockingly bad met office forecast for today, so far we have had 3/4 heavy snow showers, was due to be dry, highest temp should have been -1c, its currently 2.7c and a rapid thaw going on, no windchill to speak of, chilly cpl of days yes, a big freeze, far from it

I doubt its 2.7C.

-2.2C here at the moment and much of E Anglia is currently below freezing. Any thawing will be due to the strength of the sun rather than the temps.

I cannot believe some of the moaning. This is an exceptional cold spell when you take into account the synoptics, upper temps, thickness values, time of year. For example the 06Z GFS is suggesting -17C upper temps tomorrow across E Anglia.

GFSOPUK06_36_2.png

Regardless of the temps, dewpoints any lying snow will thaw under the sunshine due to the time of year.

Such a shame today I have read posts from people complaining about those posting in the MOD thread. Like I say this is exceptional but the time of year is watering down the effects on falling and lying snow. Besides this nobody posting on the MOD thread can be accurately predict how much snow will fall.

I am as much of a coldie as anyone on here. Frankly though the way some behave is pathetic in my opinion. Much more important things in life than snow!

 

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Hopefully reading some of the comments in here a few of you will have learnt the lesson on who to take notice of in the model thread and that the models are just that, models not statements that are fact.

At anything beyond 120-144h then compare like run with like run, read the Met O 6-15 and 16-30 they are far from perfect but they are written by professional without any bias based on the best analysis they have made of any of the models available to them. No cherry picking harts are P 1-1000 that fits a posters preference.

Yes it can be fun IF that is how you treat chasing each model and each from 2x or 4x daily but for a more sane approach then follow what I suggest above.

Anyway 3 days before any real issues with the depth of cold so fingers crossed if you have not had snow. Remember showers in winter are similar to summer, ppn in a filed and the next one dry.

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1 minute ago, TEITS said:

I doubt its 2.7C.

-2.2C here at the moment and much of E Anglia is currently below freezing. Any thawing will be due to the strength of the sun rather than the temps.

I cannot believe some of the moaning. This is an exceptional cold spell when you take into account the synoptics, upper temps, thickness values, time of year. For example the 06Z GFS is suggesting -17C upper temps tomorrow across E Anglia.

GFSOPUK06_36_2.png

Regardless of the temps, dewpoints any lying snow will thaw under the sunshine due to the time of year.

Such a shame today I have read posts from people complaining about those posting in the MOD thread. Like I say this is exceptional but the time of year is watering down the effects on falling and lying snow. Besides this nobody posting on the MOD thread can be accurately predict how much snow will fall.

I am as much of a coldie as anyone on here. Frankly though the way some behave is pathetic in my opinion. Much more important things in life than snow!

 

I do quite often disagree with TEITS but very much agree with the post he has just made. Goes with the previous one from me I think

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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Goodness knows where you got your forecast from the little picc shows sunshine and snow showers for Spalding when I looked and this text for east midlands which is your area

Today:

Snow showers becoming more frequent through the day, interspersed with bright spells, the showers occasionally heavy with accumulations likely. It will be a very cold day, with an increasing wind chill as easterly winds gradually strengthen. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

this is the link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcruk9x9k#?date=2018-02-27

metoffice website,  location, springfields outlet village and festival gardens, as of now we should it should be -1c and its currently +2.6c, not a breath of wind and beautiful blue skies, snow about an inch deep but thawing very quickly, not buying into the heavy snow later stuff, lol. 

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8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I doubt its 2.7C.

-2.2C here at the moment and much of E Anglia is currently below freezing. Any thawing will be due to the strength of the sun rather than the temps.

I cannot believe some of the moaning. This is an exceptional cold spell when you take into account the synoptics, upper temps, thickness values, time of year. For example the 06Z GFS is suggesting -17C upper temps tomorrow across E Anglia.

GFSOPUK06_36_2.png

Regardless of the temps, dewpoints any lying snow will thaw under the sunshine due to the time of year.

Such a shame today I have read posts from people complaining about those posting in the MOD thread. Like I say this is exceptional but the time of year is watering down the effects on falling and lying snow. Besides this nobody posting on the MOD thread can be accurately predict how much snow will fall.

I am as much of a coldie as anyone on here. Frankly though the way some behave is pathetic in my opinion. Much more important things in life than snow!

 

i am very much in the cold camp, but over the last cpl of days the metoffice forecast that i go by has really not been close to the mark to be fair, there is no way that currently its -1c with a windchill of -6c.lol

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16 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

metoffice website,  location, springfields outlet village and festival gardens, as of now we should it should be -1c and its currently +2.6c, not a breath of wind and beautiful blue skies, snow about an inch deep but thawing very quickly, not buying into the heavy snow later stuff, lol. 

I do suspect, looking at official weather sites around that site that it is recording a value too high. Yes, of course the sun will melt snow at this time of year, it is almost March. The sun is way higher than 2 months ago. Perhaps your expectations are too high. A number of Met forecasts have talked of the cold in relation to the time of year.

This covers your area and is well worth noting

There is the potential for 5-10 cm of snow in places though nearby locations may see only small accumulations of 0-2 cm

Edited by johnholmes
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but on a lighter note, it has been great that many have seen snow, and my son is hoping there is enough left to make a snowman after school, but my personal opinion is that to call this week a beast from the east is just slightly making it sound worse than it is, a cpl of days of lying snow and a chilly wind is surely just normal winter weather.  i shall leave it there, lol

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The Blizzard of Feb 78 in the S.W is often referred to,I can recall it well, but even with that , I 'm pretty sure that it was as a result of a front coming off of the Atlantic , and colliding with a cold Easterly. That started on a Saturday evening , and  dumped a huge amount of Snow, but even that was pretty much gone by the Tuesday, as it warmed up. 

 

Edited by 78/79
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10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I do suspect, looking at official weather sites around that site that it is recording a value too high. Yes, of course the sun will melt snow at this time of year, it is almost March. The sun is way higher than 2 months ago. Perhaps your expectations are too high. A number of Met forecasts have talked of the cold in relation to the time of year.

Yes, I tried to suggest in the MOD thread many times that the time of year would significantly modify the impact on the ground but got shot down and on some occasions even had my posts deleted for daring to suggest that snow would be melted and the sun feel warm out of the wind

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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

SW England, Wales and all of Ireland

Unless it's freezing rain! Met office look to have updated warnings for the SW/Wales to orange status for Friday but they do make mention of freezing rain and i suspect that is why they have gone from yellow to orange.  Would not want to be a forecaster at the mo - diff between no snow/blizzard/freezing rain/normal rain likely to be small margins and subject to extremely late changes.  Case of looking out of the window, which is not much help if you need to drive.

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I do wonder whether some that are negative, and who can, ever get outside and experience this cold air but simply sit on a device indoors and complain because there's not 10cm or more of snow outside.

Yes snow is what most of us like to see but bear in mind as Teits said it's almost March and the upper air in the next 2/ 3 days promises to be as cold as anything seen in previous spells.

As for snow until we see a frontal attack we rely on convection-deep cold over the warmer north sea and the showers created are a devil to forecast in both intensity and direction of travel.Quite a few have seen snow already and more is likely.Often in such a bitter cold airstream minor troughs/disturbances can pop up at short notice.

The way to enjoy this is to appreciate the notable synoptics and the unusual cold -snow is the cream on the top,which i sure will come for many by the end of the week.

Edited by phil nw.
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