Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Catacol]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh how I feel your pain. But yes one must stay positive and two or three days of this cold, dry, air (no longer I trust) will dry out the sodden ground nicely which will mean Sidney will once more be able to skip lightly over it instead of sinking up to his hocks and have problems finding a cache for his nuts. And me as well of course although forget the skip lightly bit.

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

Or about 10 miles in my case. I could see the channel streamer pouring out snow into sea from my office today in Portsmouth!!

Apparently they had two "biggies" here in Feb 2009/ Jan 2010. Well I moved here in 2010 so I missed them! At least we had Jan 2013 here, so I've had it better than some, but that was just a few inches.

I think this time it's just the counting down that's happened since the start of February, for you Catacol spotting the SSW/MJO combo, for me spotting the ensemble trend 15 days out - absolutely everything has fallen into place. It's like we're on a 147 in snooker, and we've got to 140, and it looked a formality to finish it off - but somehow from a simple position we've overrun and left ourselves with a very difficult black. What I mean is, all the hard work has been done, and now we could fluff the easy bit, which was getting a low to run into minus 17 uppers!!!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

2 hours ago, AtlanticFlamethrower said:

The South Woodham snow shield is very powerful. Showers have missed the town to the north and south by meters all day. Just a dusting here. There must be half a foot in Rayleigh and Rochford by now.

 

 

 

South Woodham has finally had a direct hit from a passing shower.

Interesting how it pepped-up just before it hit us - the relative heat island of this of the area must have aided convection just before hand. While other areas must be under quite a lot of snow from giant showers that aways missed us north and south, we were still 80% green and roofs were not completely covered. Now only the grass tips are showing.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Fascinating to observe.

[snowsummer]

Not sure if im posting in correct thread here; ive been learning so much this winter, ssw, fax charts (ouch!) Ninos, ninas. Why only yesterday i even ventured into the world of skew-t charts ( even bigger ouch!). But one thing im really really eager to learn about. Everyone on here seems  to know about it bar me. So sorry if i appear dumb, but what  exactly is this thing called SNOW?  thanks in advance for your  replies 

[Snow and storms]

Wow, this has to go down as the greatest disapointment ever... a week ago i looked at the synoptics and thought this is finally our real chance to get a proper snowy and cold prolonged spell. I wish i never looked at any posts and went with my gut that was saying something will go wrong because even being in the perfect spot for a full on easterly blast we have ended up with the most pathetic event. 

Beast from the east? The most inappropriate term ever used, this is like a small yapping dog, with an enoying bark and no bite. A 2 week plus spell got reduced to a week of cold bitter temperatures with -13 wind temps so i accepted that sucks but at least we get a week. Next minute its reduced to a 2 day event of snow all tuesday and a bit wednesday. Going to bed last night i thought ok its started and will wake up to a decent covering with snow showers all day. !!how wrong i was, barely 1cm of snow, nothing on the roads and now the forecast barely shows any snow all day with not much hope for the rest of the week. The cold is then brushed aside with the first low that says ''boo".

This has been blown so out of porportion even by experienced members, and its this im most frustrated by, if i had posted the south east will only get a 1cm of snow out of that setup and will be shunted away easily i would have been slated last week. We wont even get a single ice day after seeing -16 850temps showing on the charts i thought this would be certain. Everyone including myself has been taken in by the hype of this cold fart and its realy ruined my love of weather watching this time. It feels completely pointless looking at a weather chart now and reading all the intelligent posts, its hard enough working out which members opinions to follow because theres so many people that forecast on their feelings rather than facts including a lot of long time 'experts'. One big example is how many people ignored the blidningly obvious charts showing that the low would fInish our cold spell in the south because cold air is so dense and so hard to move. Rather than actually taking the evidence of what the charts were showing we are all dragged into this hype that The Cold Beast will deflect it like some indestructible bad super hero movie.

well thats my rant over, ill go back to being slated by the family as 'The Weather Fool' because to them the bbc forecast and daily mail are more accurate than a few thousand weather enthusiasts. 

One last leaving comment is i recommend setting up a model discussion area that allows only a select few experts with no biased opinions to comment on the charts and leave one open to amateurs and childhood snow dreamers.

see you all next year for another go round the merry go round! 

[SLEETY]

9 hours ago, Catacol said:

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

You forecast this week away so very impressed by that.

hope you don’t stop posting ,think SW could still get blizzard end of week 

Edited February 27, 2018 by SLEETY

[snowblizzard]

Classic example of West based -NAO?

Allowing energy under the block.

Where lack of Canadian vortex doesn't do us any favours in UK!

Edited February 27, 2018 by snowblizzard

[Wizzobell]

11 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Me too. Actually if the south coast can't get anything of of this, I might give up chasing snow altogether. Low pressure running into uppers of minus 17C? Should be a total shoe-in for a blizzard. I'll be horrified if this one is added to the (very) long list of disappointments. It's not the geography that's at fault, it's just seriously bad luck. My goodness, just how many spells of torrential rain have we had on the south coast at 3 or 4 degrees above freezing? 

But this is the one I've been waiting for. You look at so many historical south coast blizzards, most of them look exactly like this. I can't imagine getting a better chance than this, so if it fails, maybe it's time to hang up my boots.

No, give me summer anytime. In summer, you spot a good pattern 8 or 9 days out, and 50% of the time it delivers. We get the high twenties without the ridiculous heat inland. We get day after day of glorious sunshine. Yes there are disappointments in summer too but there seems a fair balance between the ones that work out and the ones that don't.

I think we're due a break down here. If the Midlands could get a break in December with that slider low further south at T12, well, considering we lost a blizzard to the sea in 2013 on a last minute southerly correction, I think it's high time the balance was redressed. If not this time, I can't imagine when.

I'm done with reading stories about it. I want to see it with my own eyes!

 

I keep hearing about the South’s lack of snow but I’m based in S Yorks and we haven’t had snow since 2010. 

The reality is that we are all snow starved and therefore ramp at the possibility of snow even so called experts on the model thread.

The models really struggle with our island and can simply pick a broad trend with v little detailed accuracy even at v short time periods hence we have an amber warning but we don’t even have a covering of snow. 

After another failed bout of snowmaggedon predictions I think I’m going to stick to looking out of the window 

[Evening thunder]

 

11 hours ago, Catacol said:

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

I agree with your recent posts and others about how frustrating this would be if the low behaves all wrong and we miss this 'golden ticket' for a major non-marginal event in the S/SW.

Although the models have trended slightly in the right direction, we may see snow on Friday too or a right mess of snow/sleet/rain/freezing rain.
I can probably be content with that (Well I'll probably have to be lol) at least if we get a sub zero, windy, hopefully at least a bit snowy Thursday. Nice to see all of the SW getting a good 'freeze' at night to, not just the prone lower areas leaving some hills struggling to get much below zero.

I suppose it's a bit strange in a way. The only weather that exists is what actually happens but if we hadn't seen what 'could have been' from some computes, we would probably be happier with what is happening.

This area seems to do ok for frost at least in more prone areas, but snow is the hard bit.

How did you do in 2010 and 2009? Here December 2010 had nearly a foot of snow on the 20th which lay around until the 26th (lying snow from the 17-26th in total), January gave 6cm lasting for several days though there was a bit more towards your area I thought (before that, it was several dustings with 2cm max for my house over 10 years!) 
February 2009 was a disappointment at my low level house but nearby hills had 6 inches and I saw over a foot in Mid Devon.
Jan 2013 also a disappointment on low lying windward coasts, more inland I think but I was in Surrey and only saw 1 day before being whisked away on a university field trip to South Spain. 

I've still yet to seen a proper windy snowy front or 'blizzard' like we used to get occasionally. Had a couple 'infamous' misses.

Funnily enough, for the South Devon and Cornwall coasts that missed out on most of the above, Tomorrow could be your day for something.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Evening thunder

[Paul_1978]

An awful lot of excitement about this easterly recently. 

“It’s going to be like Jan 1987”, “We’re going to get buried”. 

At present we have less than 1cm in Wakefield. Feb 1991 it ain’t .

[Tonyinhampshire]

2 hours ago, Wizzobell said:

I keep hearing about the South’s lack of snow but I’m based in S Yorks and we haven’t had snow since 2010. 

The reality is that we are all snow starved and therefore ramp at the possibility of snow even so called experts on the model thread.

The models really struggle with our island and can simply pick a broad trend with v little detailed accuracy even at v short time periods hence we have an amber warning but we don’t even have a covering of snow. 

After another failed bout of snowmaggedon predictions I think I’m going to stick to looking out of the window 

Similar setup to 1978. I was a child then. I recall rain on coast. Snow one mile inland. We have had snow this year on the coast/beach. 1 inch and was unexpected. I think it is the Solent microclimate. On the occasions we have had snow, most was iunexpected and when it was forecast, it often rained.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Tonyinhampshire

[Isabellesnanny]

Are blizzards still a major issue for later in the week and if so where are they going to affect?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Are blizzards still a major issue for later in the week and if so where are they going to affect?

SW England, Wales and all of Ireland

Edited February 27, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[K9]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

An awful lot of excitement about this easterly recently. 

“It’s going to be like Jan 1987”, “We’re going to get buried”. 

At present we have less than 1cm in Wakefield. Feb 1991 it ain’t .

I'm with you on that one mate...a total non-event here in God's own county....don't get me wrong i love watching outputs of 'eye-candy' charts and a good snow event, but this has been ramped up beyond belief by many on here ( historic, brutal cold,well into March, ...the ramps went on and on...) and is rapidly turning into a feline cat rather than a beast that will fizzle out into a cold/cool damp/wet ending....( how i would love to be proved wrong mind you but the writing is on the wall so to speak and another damp squib of a winter comes and goes )...just goes to show you can't trust the model outputs many days in advance, even in this age of high tech super computers !!..nature will be whatever it wants...and predicting it's outcome (accurately), even a short time into the future is nigh on impossible !!

Edited February 27, 2018 by K9
spelling

[Paul_1978]

22 minutes ago, K9 said:

I'm with you on that one mate...a total non-event here in God's own county....don't get me wrong i love watching outputs of 'eye-candy' charts and a good snow event, but this has been ramped up beyond belief by many on here ( historic, brutal cold,well into March, ...the ramps went on and on...) and is rapidly turning into a feline cat rather than a beast that will fizzle out into a cold/cool damp/wet ending....( how i would love to be proved wrong mind you but the writing is on the wall so to speak and another damp squib of a winter comes and goes )...just goes to show you can't trust the model outputs many days in advance, even in this age of high tech super computers !!..nature will be whatever it wants...and predicting it's outcome (accurately), even a short time into the future is nigh on impossible !!

Spot on. I've spent an awful lot of time on the MOD this winter (since November in fact!) cold chasing, and what we've ended up with today is disappointing. Appreciate there's more of the week to come. It's a shame we didn't get this SSW in January.

I think next winter I'll keep an eye on the charts and Met Office forecast but avoid the MOD thread. The SSW and its effect on pressure patterns is interesting to see, but ultimately we've ended up with a couple of centimetres of snow (as it stands).

All I want is another Feb 1991 in this neck of the woods and I'll die happy!

[knocker]

Ah that warms the cockles and a reminder it's time to put all of this nonsense behind us

 

[markyo]

Oh bless them,the Southern Softies get a dusting of snow and it's headline news...happens everytime!

[sparky1972]

may i say what a shockingly bad met office forecast for today, so far we have had 3/4 heavy snow showers, was due to be dry, highest temp should have been -1c, its currently 2.7c and a rapid thaw going on, no windchill to speak of, chilly cpl of days yes, a big freeze, far from it

[Summer Sun]

2 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

An awful lot of excitement about this easterly recently. 

“It’s going to be like Jan 1987”, “We’re going to get buried”. 

At present we have less than 1cm in Wakefield. Feb 1991 it ain’t .

Doesn't even look like it will be a 2013 let alone another random year like some like to mention when snow arrives

[abruzzi spur]

2 minutes ago, markyo said:

Oh bless them,the Southern Softies get a dusting of snow and it's headline news...happens everytime!

Ey oop lad, least tha's not fallen into t'regional cliche stuff, eh?  Any road, where's me whippet, could do wi' a walk round t'derelict factry before me dinner as it's nearly time to fire oop t'stove and get t'black puddin' on't go. 

[johnholmes]

9 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

may i say what a shockingly bad met office forecast for today, so far we have had 3/4 heavy snow showers, was due to be dry, highest temp should have been -1c, its currently 2.7c and a rapid thaw going on, no windchill to speak of, chilly cpl of days yes, a big freeze, far from it

Goodness knows where you got your forecast from the little picc shows sunshine and snow showers for Spalding when I looked and this text for east midlands which is your area

Today:

Snow showers becoming more frequent through the day, interspersed with bright spells, the showers occasionally heavy with accumulations likely. It will be a very cold day, with an increasing wind chill as easterly winds gradually strengthen. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

this is the link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcruk9x9k#?date=2018-02-27

Edited February 27, 2018 by johnholmes

[TEITS]

6 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

may i say what a shockingly bad met office forecast for today, so far we have had 3/4 heavy snow showers, was due to be dry, highest temp should have been -1c, its currently 2.7c and a rapid thaw going on, no windchill to speak of, chilly cpl of days yes, a big freeze, far from it

I doubt its 2.7C.

-2.2C here at the moment and much of E Anglia is currently below freezing. Any thawing will be due to the strength of the sun rather than the temps.

I cannot believe some of the moaning. This is an exceptional cold spell when you take into account the synoptics, upper temps, thickness values, time of year. For example the 06Z GFS is suggesting -17C upper temps tomorrow across E Anglia.

Regardless of the temps, dewpoints any lying snow will thaw under the sunshine due to the time of year.

Such a shame today I have read posts from people complaining about those posting in the MOD thread. Like I say this is exceptional but the time of year is watering down the effects on falling and lying snow. Besides this nobody posting on the MOD thread can be accurately predict how much snow will fall.

I am as much of a coldie as anyone on here. Frankly though the way some behave is pathetic in my opinion. Much more important things in life than snow!

 

[johnholmes]

Hopefully reading some of the comments in here a few of you will have learnt the lesson on who to take notice of in the model thread and that the models are just that, models not statements that are fact.

At anything beyond 120-144h then compare like run with like run, read the Met O 6-15 and 16-30 they are far from perfect but they are written by professional without any bias based on the best analysis they have made of any of the models available to them. No cherry picking harts are P 1-1000 that fits a posters preference.

Yes it can be fun IF that is how you treat chasing each model and each from 2x or 4x daily but for a more sane approach then follow what I suggest above.

Anyway 3 days before any real issues with the depth of cold so fingers crossed if you have not had snow. Remember showers in winter are similar to summer, ppn in a filed and the next one dry.

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

I doubt its 2.7C.

-2.2C here at the moment and much of E Anglia is currently below freezing. Any thawing will be due to the strength of the sun rather than the temps.

I cannot believe some of the moaning. This is an exceptional cold spell when you take into account the synoptics, upper temps, thickness values, time of year. For example the 06Z GFS is suggesting -17C upper temps tomorrow across E Anglia.

Regardless of the temps, dewpoints any lying snow will thaw under the sunshine due to the time of year.

Such a shame today I have read posts from people complaining about those posting in the MOD thread. Like I say this is exceptional but the time of year is watering down the effects on falling and lying snow. Besides this nobody posting on the MOD thread can be accurately predict how much snow will fall.

I am as much of a coldie as anyone on here. Frankly though the way some behave is pathetic in my opinion. Much more important things in life than snow!

 

I do quite often disagree with TEITS but very much agree with the post he has just made. Goes with the previous one from me I think

[sparky1972]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Goodness knows where you got your forecast from the little picc shows sunshine and snow showers for Spalding when I looked and this text for east midlands which is your area

Today:

Snow showers becoming more frequent through the day, interspersed with bright spells, the showers occasionally heavy with accumulations likely. It will be a very cold day, with an increasing wind chill as easterly winds gradually strengthen. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

this is the link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcruk9x9k#?date=2018-02-27

metoffice website,  location, springfields outlet village and festival gardens, as of now we should it should be -1c and its currently +2.6c, not a breath of wind and beautiful blue skies, snow about an inch deep but thawing very quickly, not buying into the heavy snow later stuff, lol.