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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Same as Isabells above, which one do you pay heed to? is there any possibility of snow in MK / M1 this week as I'm travelling a lot and would rather avoid the carnage if possible! I thought it was pretty much confined to the east now.

Thanks

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"big disappointment for so many"

Thursday/ Friday is fantasy island territory in this current situation..... Wednesday night will probably have a pretty firm idea of any Friday incursion/breakdown ....but if the models disagree even then .... It's a nowcasting event

Edited by Bryn Webster
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8 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Sorry, a bit dim here - BBC forecast and Met office forecast seem to say different things -  which forecast shortly take more notice of hearing in mind the BBC's provider?

 

Thanks

 

5 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

Same as Isabells above, which one do you pay heed to? is there any possibility of snow in MK / M1 this week as I'm travelling a lot and would rather avoid the carnage if possible! I thought it was pretty much confined to the east now.

Thanks

From my personal point of view, they have both chopped and changed things about over the past couple of days. Met Office seemed to have over-hyped this spell a bit though, so it looks like the Beeb are the more trustworthy at the moment.

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I was told time and time again that it will be so cold the higher sun won’t melt the snow. Dew points being so low and all. 

Well the sun melted all the snow today and even with these uppers some places recorded 3/4 degrees

unless it is a major blizzard with sub zero temps and cloud cover forget it after mid feb. It’s pointless 

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26 minutes ago, Bryn Webster said:

"big disappointment for so many"

Thursday/ Friday is fantasy island territory in this current situation..... Wednesday night will probably have a pretty firm idea of any Friday incursion/breakdown ....but if the models disagree even then .... It's a nowcasting event

There’s always hope, the cold block is exceptional and I don’t think any model has the exact/correct handle on what will happen at the end of the week. Current output looks poor for sustained snow across much of England, though, sadly. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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24 minutes ago, ptow said:

I was told time and time again that it will be so cold the higher sun won’t melt the snow. Dew points being so low and all. 

Well the sun melted all the snow today and even with these uppers some places recorded 3/4 degrees

unless it is a major blizzard with sub zero temps and cloud cover forget it after mid feb. It’s pointless 

Depending where you are!

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1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

After this cold spell/snap/flop, whatever you want to call it is over, I think I'll be ready for spring. Start looking for that first +20*c spell. 

Me too. Actually if the south coast can't get anything of of this, I might give up chasing snow altogether. Low pressure running into uppers of minus 17C? Should be a total shoe-in for a blizzard. I'll be horrified if this one is added to the (very) long list of disappointments. It's not the geography that's at fault, it's just seriously bad luck. My goodness, just how many spells of torrential rain have we had on the south coast at 3 or 4 degrees above freezing? 

But this is the one I've been waiting for. You look at so many historical south coast blizzards, most of them look exactly like this. I can't imagine getting a better chance than this, so if it fails, maybe it's time to hang up my boots.

No, give me summer anytime. In summer, you spot a good pattern 8 or 9 days out, and 50% of the time it delivers. We get the high twenties without the ridiculous heat inland. We get day after day of glorious sunshine. Yes there are disappointments in summer too but there seems a fair balance between the ones that work out and the ones that don't.

I think we're due a break down here. If the Midlands could get a break in December with that slider low further south at T12, well, considering we lost a blizzard to the sea in 2013 on a last minute southerly correction, I think it's high time the balance was redressed. If not this time, I can't imagine when.

I'm done with reading stories about it. I want to see it with my own eyes!

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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13 minutes ago, ptow said:

It’s been the case right across the south all day. 

You never know things may change! Dont throw the towel in just yet. The cold snap is only beginning to start!!

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16 minutes ago, ptow said:

It may fall but rarely settles for more than an hour 

 

We had a ft of snow here in Yorkshie in late April 1981, max temp was 1'C dropping below freezing late afternoon.

It did thaw once sun came out after 3 days of heavy snow falling.

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Applied for 2 jobs in Scotland recently - failed both times. Not only do I envy those in the north and east tonight, I envy those who dislike cold and ice and prefer warm south westerlies. I know we get a good deal of polar maritime air at times, and even continental feed too... but if you are Knocker and can’t stand the harsh cold of winter you are sitting pretty 48-50 weeks a year in the SW. Easy to dance with the squirrel firm in the knowledge that cold is a 1 in 5 year event (based on my 25 years down here) that rarely lasts more than a few days. 

Ah well - let’s stay positive. We might yet get snow on Thursday night in the south that sticks around until tea time Saturday. Given past frustrations that would be enough to turn this week into something worthwhile. Anything longer than that (and if the low pivots and slides as per ICON this afternoon) then we may yet keep the milder air at bay.

Edited by Catacol
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16 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Applied for 2 jobs in Scotland recently - failed both times. Not only do I envy those in the north and east tonight, I envy those who dislike cold and ice and prefer warm south westerlies. I know we get a good deal of polar maritime air at times, and even continental feed too... but if you are Knocker and can’t stand the harsh cold of winter you are sitting pretty 48-50 weeks a year in the SW. Easy to dance with the squirrel firm in the knowledge that cold is a 1 in 5 year event (based on my 25 years down here) that rarely lasts more than a few days. 

Ah well - let’s stay positive. We might yet get snow on Thursday night in the south that sticks around until tea time Saturday. Given past frustrations that would be enough to turn this week into something worthwhile. Anything longer than that (and if the low pivots and slides as per ICON this afternoon) then we may yet keep the milder air at bay.

Oh how I feel your pain. But yes one must stay positive and two or three days of this cold, dry, air (no longer I trust) will dry out the sodden ground nicely which will mean Sidney will once more be able to skip lightly over it instead of sinking up to his hocks and have problems finding a cache for his nuts. And me as well of course although forget the skip lightly bit.

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh how I feel your pain. But yes one must stay positive and two or three days of this cold, dry, air (no longer I trust) will dry out the sodden ground nicely which will mean Sidney will once more be able to skip lightly over it instead of sinking up to his hocks and have problems finding a cache for his nuts. And me as well of course although forget the skip lightly bit.

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

Or about 10 miles in my case. I could see the channel streamer pouring out snow into sea from my office today in Portsmouth!!

Apparently they had two "biggies" here in Feb 2009/ Jan 2010. Well I moved here in 2010 so I missed them! At least we had Jan 2013 here, so I've had it better than some, but that was just a few inches.

I think this time it's just the counting down that's happened since the start of February, for you Catacol spotting the SSW/MJO combo, for me spotting the ensemble trend 15 days out - absolutely everything has fallen into place. It's like we're on a 147 in snooker, and we've got to 140, and it looked a formality to finish it off - but somehow from a simple position we've overrun and left ourselves with a very difficult black. What I mean is, all the hard work has been done, and now we could fluff the easy bit, which was getting a low to run into minus 17 uppers!!!

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2 hours ago, AtlanticFlamethrower said:

The South Woodham snow shield is very powerful. Showers have missed the town to the north and south by meters all day. Just a dusting here. There must be half a foot in Rayleigh and Rochford by now.

 

 

 

South Woodham has finally had a direct hit from a passing shower.

Interesting how it pepped-up just before it hit us - the relative heat island of this of the area must have aided convection just before hand. While other areas must be under quite a lot of snow from giant showers that aways missed us north and south, we were still 80% green and roofs were not completely covered. Now only the grass tips are showing.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Fascinating to observe.

snowpep.png

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Not sure if im posting in correct thread here; ive been learning so much this winter, ssw, fax charts (ouch!) Ninos, ninas. Why only yesterday i even ventured into the world of skew-t charts ( even bigger ouch!). But one thing im really really eager to learn about. Everyone on here seems  to know about it bar me. So sorry if i appear dumb, but what  exactly is this thing called SNOW?  thanks in advance for your  replies 

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Wow, this has to go down as the greatest disapointment ever... a week ago i looked at the synoptics and thought this is finally our real chance to get a proper snowy and cold prolonged spell. I wish i never looked at any posts and went with my gut that was saying something will go wrong because even being in the perfect spot for a full on easterly blast we have ended up with the most pathetic event. 

Beast from the east? The most inappropriate term ever used, this is like a small yapping dog, with an enoying bark and no bite. A 2 week plus spell got reduced to a week of cold bitter temperatures with -13 wind temps so i accepted that sucks but at least we get a week. Next minute its reduced to a 2 day event of snow all tuesday and a bit wednesday. Going to bed last night i thought ok its started and will wake up to a decent covering with snow showers all day. !!how wrong i was, barely 1cm of snow, nothing on the roads and now the forecast barely shows any snow all day with not much hope for the rest of the week. The cold is then brushed aside with the first low that says ''boo".

This has been blown so out of porportion even by experienced members, and its this im most frustrated by, if i had posted the south east will only get a 1cm of snow out of that setup and will be shunted away easily i would have been slated last week. We wont even get a single ice day after seeing -16 850temps showing on the charts i thought this would be certain. Everyone including myself has been taken in by the hype of this cold fart and its realy ruined my love of weather watching this time. It feels completely pointless looking at a weather chart now and reading all the intelligent posts, its hard enough working out which members opinions to follow because theres so many people that forecast on their feelings rather than facts including a lot of long time 'experts'. One big example is how many people ignored the blidningly obvious charts showing that the low would fInish our cold spell in the south because cold air is so dense and so hard to move. Rather than actually taking the evidence of what the charts were showing we are all dragged into this hype that The Cold Beast will deflect it like some indestructible bad super hero movie.

well thats my rant over, ill go back to being slated by the family as 'The Weather Fool' because to them the bbc forecast and daily mail are more accurate than a few thousand weather enthusiasts. 

One last leaving comment is i recommend setting up a model discussion area that allows only a select few experts with no biased opinions to comment on the charts and leave one open to amateurs and childhood snow dreamers.

see you all next year for another go round the merry go round! 

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9 hours ago, Catacol said:

Ha nice one Knocker. I knew you were lurking and reading even though your bushy tail has icicles on it tonight  ?

In all seriousness I find waiting for snow down here an incredibly draining process. I have spent 15 years or so now growing my understanding to the point where I feel able to discuss and post a bit... but only in the hunt for snow. I dislike hot summer (growing up in Scotland means an aversion to sun and heat) and while I love the colours of autumn accompanied by frost the real excitement is then built up over the approach of low uppers as December kicks in. Cold rain is miserable and I loath Atlantic weather in winter. I can handle Spring as it signals the approach of cricket season, but the highlight is always the hunt for snow.

Which means I absolutely live in the wrong part of the UK. Sigh. 25 years in the south and feb 96 remains the highlight. Special week. Elsewhere fleeting days - I think 3 or 4 from 1997 to 2017.

This current scenario could go either way for Thurs - Sun. Unbelievably fine margins. I am constantly amazed how frequently the SW misses snow by 50-70 miles. It is extraordinary.

You forecast this week away so very impressed by that.

hope you don’t stop posting ,think SW could still get blizzard end of week 

Edited by SLEETY
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11 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Me too. Actually if the south coast can't get anything of of this, I might give up chasing snow altogether. Low pressure running into uppers of minus 17C? Should be a total shoe-in for a blizzard. I'll be horrified if this one is added to the (very) long list of disappointments. It's not the geography that's at fault, it's just seriously bad luck. My goodness, just how many spells of torrential rain have we had on the south coast at 3 or 4 degrees above freezing? 

But this is the one I've been waiting for. You look at so many historical south coast blizzards, most of them look exactly like this. I can't imagine getting a better chance than this, so if it fails, maybe it's time to hang up my boots.

No, give me summer anytime. In summer, you spot a good pattern 8 or 9 days out, and 50% of the time it delivers. We get the high twenties without the ridiculous heat inland. We get day after day of glorious sunshine. Yes there are disappointments in summer too but there seems a fair balance between the ones that work out and the ones that don't.

I think we're due a break down here. If the Midlands could get a break in December with that slider low further south at T12, well, considering we lost a blizzard to the sea in 2013 on a last minute southerly correction, I think it's high time the balance was redressed. If not this time, I can't imagine when.

I'm done with reading stories about it. I want to see it with my own eyes!

 

I keep hearing about the South’s lack of snow but I’m based in S Yorks and we haven’t had snow since 2010. 

The reality is that we are all snow starved and therefore ramp at the possibility of snow even so called experts on the model thread.

The models really struggle with our island and can simply pick a broad trend with v little detailed accuracy even at v short time periods hence we have an amber warning but we don’t even have a covering of snow. 

After another failed bout of snowmaggedon predictions I think I’m going to stick to looking out of the window 

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