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1 hour ago, Shunter said:

That will be based on yesterdays data......and was correct then. Any changes on tonights 12z runs will not materialise until tomorrow.

yes the 12z have changed

I'm not surprised these huge Siberian high do not get pushed away so fast as the models want to.the gfs is especially junk ,seems no.model is much use if the weather goes against the norm.lots have said the low will track much further s,

fascinating model watching hope the people in the mad thread that swear by the gfs have learnt some harsh lessons this week

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Don't know why some are expressing disappointment already. Today seems to have gone much as forecast: cold encroaching, snow flurries all day, 2C max, now 0C with windchill taking it down to -4C

The next four days still promise some exceptional cold and significant snow. I for one don't really care if - and it remains a big IF - it all goes mild 'n' mushy at the weekend, plenty of interest before then

Decent covering of snow in York tomorrow I trust; the first of any consequence since 2013

Camera at the ready!

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2 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

met office amber warnings being restricted to smaller areas now, its gone for my area tomorrow and now we might see a bit of light snow if we are lucky, i have to say this has all been way over hyped.

Yep know how you feel northants lost the amber one today had a couple of snow flakes all day

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1 minute ago, Nizzer said:

Think I might be bringing the mood down in my regional thread so I'll stay in here. Some people are going to be a bit disappointment in the morning me thinks. :closedeyes:

i think there are going to be alot of disappointed people in the morning if they are hoping to wake up to plenty of snow, me included, i have never seen such bad metoffice hourly changes regarding snowfall, it should be chucking it down right now, and not a flake is falling.

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5 hours ago, jayb1989 said:

Don’t despair Tony, you could well get 20/30 mins of snow on Thursday night before it turns to cold rain.

Not if some of the latest output is to be believed. ECM not bringing the 0C 850’s over the Channel. But earlier GFS output may be correct.

Edit: Warmer air does make quite large inroads into the UK from the S. So, cold rain for much of England, big disappointment for so many, no doubt. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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Same as Isabells above, which one do you pay heed to? is there any possibility of snow in MK / M1 this week as I'm travelling a lot and would rather avoid the carnage if possible! I thought it was pretty much confined to the east now.

Thanks

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"big disappointment for so many"

Thursday/ Friday is fantasy island territory in this current situation..... Wednesday night will probably have a pretty firm idea of any Friday incursion/breakdown ....but if the models disagree even then .... It's a nowcasting event

Edited by Bryn Webster
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8 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Sorry, a bit dim here - BBC forecast and Met office forecast seem to say different things -  which forecast shortly take more notice of hearing in mind the BBC's provider?

 

Thanks

 

5 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

Same as Isabells above, which one do you pay heed to? is there any possibility of snow in MK / M1 this week as I'm travelling a lot and would rather avoid the carnage if possible! I thought it was pretty much confined to the east now.

Thanks

From my personal point of view, they have both chopped and changed things about over the past couple of days. Met Office seemed to have over-hyped this spell a bit though, so it looks like the Beeb are the more trustworthy at the moment.

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I was told time and time again that it will be so cold the higher sun won’t melt the snow. Dew points being so low and all. 

Well the sun melted all the snow today and even with these uppers some places recorded 3/4 degrees

unless it is a major blizzard with sub zero temps and cloud cover forget it after mid feb. It’s pointless 

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26 minutes ago, Bryn Webster said:

"big disappointment for so many"

Thursday/ Friday is fantasy island territory in this current situation..... Wednesday night will probably have a pretty firm idea of any Friday incursion/breakdown ....but if the models disagree even then .... It's a nowcasting event

There’s always hope, the cold block is exceptional and I don’t think any model has the exact/correct handle on what will happen at the end of the week. Current output looks poor for sustained snow across much of England, though, sadly. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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24 minutes ago, ptow said:

I was told time and time again that it will be so cold the higher sun won’t melt the snow. Dew points being so low and all. 

Well the sun melted all the snow today and even with these uppers some places recorded 3/4 degrees

unless it is a major blizzard with sub zero temps and cloud cover forget it after mid feb. It’s pointless 

Depending where you are!

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1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

After this cold spell/snap/flop, whatever you want to call it is over, I think I'll be ready for spring. Start looking for that first +20*c spell. 

Me too. Actually if the south coast can't get anything of of this, I might give up chasing snow altogether. Low pressure running into uppers of minus 17C? Should be a total shoe-in for a blizzard. I'll be horrified if this one is added to the (very) long list of disappointments. It's not the geography that's at fault, it's just seriously bad luck. My goodness, just how many spells of torrential rain have we had on the south coast at 3 or 4 degrees above freezing? 

But this is the one I've been waiting for. You look at so many historical south coast blizzards, most of them look exactly like this. I can't imagine getting a better chance than this, so if it fails, maybe it's time to hang up my boots.

No, give me summer anytime. In summer, you spot a good pattern 8 or 9 days out, and 50% of the time it delivers. We get the high twenties without the ridiculous heat inland. We get day after day of glorious sunshine. Yes there are disappointments in summer too but there seems a fair balance between the ones that work out and the ones that don't.

I think we're due a break down here. If the Midlands could get a break in December with that slider low further south at T12, well, considering we lost a blizzard to the sea in 2013 on a last minute southerly correction, I think it's high time the balance was redressed. If not this time, I can't imagine when.

I'm done with reading stories about it. I want to see it with my own eyes!

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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13 minutes ago, ptow said:

It’s been the case right across the south all day. 

You never know things may change! Dont throw the towel in just yet. The cold snap is only beginning to start!!

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16 minutes ago, ptow said:

It may fall but rarely settles for more than an hour 

 

We had a ft of snow here in Yorkshie in late April 1981, max temp was 1'C dropping below freezing late afternoon.

It did thaw once sun came out after 3 days of heavy snow falling.

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Applied for 2 jobs in Scotland recently - failed both times. Not only do I envy those in the north and east tonight, I envy those who dislike cold and ice and prefer warm south westerlies. I know we get a good deal of polar maritime air at times, and even continental feed too... but if you are Knocker and can’t stand the harsh cold of winter you are sitting pretty 48-50 weeks a year in the SW. Easy to dance with the squirrel firm in the knowledge that cold is a 1 in 5 year event (based on my 25 years down here) that rarely lasts more than a few days. 

Ah well - let’s stay positive. We might yet get snow on Thursday night in the south that sticks around until tea time Saturday. Given past frustrations that would be enough to turn this week into something worthwhile. Anything longer than that (and if the low pivots and slides as per ICON this afternoon) then we may yet keep the milder air at bay.

Edited by Catacol
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16 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Applied for 2 jobs in Scotland recently - failed both times. Not only do I envy those in the north and east tonight, I envy those who dislike cold and ice and prefer warm south westerlies. I know we get a good deal of polar maritime air at times, and even continental feed too... but if you are Knocker and can’t stand the harsh cold of winter you are sitting pretty 48-50 weeks a year in the SW. Easy to dance with the squirrel firm in the knowledge that cold is a 1 in 5 year event (based on my 25 years down here) that rarely lasts more than a few days. 

Ah well - let’s stay positive. We might yet get snow on Thursday night in the south that sticks around until tea time Saturday. Given past frustrations that would be enough to turn this week into something worthwhile. Anything longer than that (and if the low pivots and slides as per ICON this afternoon) then we may yet keep the milder air at bay.

Oh how I feel your pain. But yes one must stay positive and two or three days of this cold, dry, air (no longer I trust) will dry out the sodden ground nicely which will mean Sidney will once more be able to skip lightly over it instead of sinking up to his hocks and have problems finding a cache for his nuts. And me as well of course although forget the skip lightly bit.

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