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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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ECM looks closer to GFS at t+96.. Don't need to see any more, know where this is going.

Edit: Yep, southerly flow in quickly here.  Don't care if uppers are a bit below zero, that's due to a wrap around of modified air not the continental air mass.

ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

Good for the midlands north.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Doesn't really go with what the models and NWTV posters are saying..??..That's for my locus in Yorkshire only about 50 miles inland from east coast ?..hardly awe inspiring !!..

IMG_1294.PNG

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To be fair ECM gives freezing rain up to Bristol before turning back to snow for most of the south - north of a line from roughly Bournemouth to Barnstaple. (well covered by others in the actual model thread).

Problem is, it's marginal at best by 9pm Thursday for me! (and so that's zero ice days from this spell).. and precipitation before that is pretty light. Also I'm not interested in another chilly week afterwards if it removes my snow before that.

I could hope the depth of the small low is overdone, and hence the northward push.. but it looks closer to the GFS before that anyway so will it be?

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From past experience the models / GFS in particular has ALWAYS struggled with the displacement of cold air - I would not be at all surprised if this wasn’t the case again next week. It has major snow event written all over it. 

No doubt that the milder air will get in eventually over the weekend but we should be anticipating some big time snow beforehand - Thursday and Friday, particularly away from the south coast.  

As for the shower activity next week - I still have my doubts whether it will be quite as widespread as people think - the charts already identify the primary areas of activity and this hasn’t changed for days.. some places will be lucky but I’ve no doubt there’ll be disappointment too.

all in all an interesting weeks weather!!! :D

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6 hours ago, chubbyfan said:

lol..the cold airmass hasn't even arrived yet.

He said they didn't even get today's temp correct. Why would they get tomorrows? 

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7 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

Well, the UKMO is an improvement (though still gets positive 850's over my location). GFS = worse. Only some night-time snow before it's washed away by daylight. Hopefully the UKMO is closer (though I suspect it would turn milder after T+144 anyway).

A couple ECM runs showed 5+ ice days with lying snow continuing into next week for Exeter, with very low minima. That's worth the ramping and historic labels. Shame that looks to be almost off the table now. With this frigid airmass mixed out, anything afterwards is unlikely to be 'worth it' down here.

Ok so there could be a major event in the SW, but that could still be after dark and melt by dawn.
One possible ice day Thursday, but not really a historic 'spell' here even with very cold uppers (though any brief flirtation with -15C 850s may pass north of me anyway). A bit like a brief flirtation with 20C uppers in summer doesn't necessarily mean a historic heatwave.

On the other hand the ESE'ly flow for Wednesday/Thursday (it had previously been projected as an ENE'ly) could bring some snow showers in off the English Channel for a time.  It's a lot more knife-edge for us in the South West (whereas my old homelands in Tyneside and North Yorkshire look almost certain to have at least 10cm lying by Thursday) but we're not out of it, especially as the models might backtrack and start placing the systems a bit further south as we get nearer the time.

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I think it's difficult to not be disappointed having seen this morning's output. I was hoping for Southerly corrections to start appearing widely by now. 

For all the incredible runs we've seen, this looks like being a short sharp shock for the South rather than something to rival the classic cold spells. 

Still time for change of course. I think we still have until Wed to get in the game again, and some locations will still see big totals, but for my location and many others it doesn't look like something I'll be discussing for years to come, which is what I was anticipating. 

Still, impressive to see at this time of year regardless, and been incredibly fun and informative watching it all unfold on the models. 5cms plus in March with this level of cold is not an everyday event.

Edited by Number 23
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5 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

On the other hand the ESE'ly flow for Wednesday/Thursday (it had previously been projected as an ENE'ly) could bring some snow showers in off the English Channel for a time.  It's a lot more knife-edge for us in the South West (whereas my old homelands in Tyneside and North Yorkshire look almost certain to have at least 10cm lying by Thursday) but we're not out of it, especially as the models might backtrack and start placing the systems a bit further south as we get nearer the time.

I have been watching that, if anything it seems things have trended away from that to me. Met warning gone and also gone from their forecast now.  ECM for instance gets little into us although I feel South Devon/Cornwall is likely to see it, and we could see a brief something.

Also there's a trend that the low behaves all wrong for us IMO, with the main precip shield going towards Ireland Thursday. ECM and especially GFS only show light stuff for us before it turns too marginal (both uppers and surface temps) when a front arrives into Friday.
ECM temp maps (weather.us) now have it above freezing and marginal by 9pm Thursday, and by midnight, only Exmoor is clinging to below zero surface temps. Midday Friday and it's +8C.
Met Office forecast is worse this morning too.

Thought I might feel a bit more optimistic this morning but I don't really. I can see the signs of us missing this rare opportunity for a major/non marginal event in the far south & SW with such a cold airmass. 

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I've been watching some proper lake effect/sea effect snow in action in Stockholm this morning. Maybe some of us will be lucky enough to experience the same. :D

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Edited by cheese
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Temperatures across Europe this morning looking bone chilling!

Just imagine the wind chill factor!

That will be coming our way (obviously modified) during the next 2/3 days

Lots of doubts about possible breakdown at the end of the week, definitely not resolved yet.

But, at least we can look forward to several days of proper wintry weather with chance of significant snow cover in some area's of UK

I think it will be at least 6pm on Thursday before less cold air starts edging into the Southern half of the country.

Enjoy the ride guys!

Europe 26 Feb 2018.gif

Edited by snowblizzard
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Obviously most people are focused on the events during this week and especially the end of the week, but the GFS 0z low res has a couple of significant snow events for the midlands and southwards between T224 and T300 or so, with the bulk of the country under -8C hPa.

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It's snowing here, not a lot but it's a start. The prospect of potentially being buried at the end of the week got me thinking.....

 

Oh beautiful snow, you've kept me awake

Watching you fall, flake after flake

The heating is off and I have grown cold

Doesn't stop me feeling like a six year old

But we're not all the same, my hubby, he's snoring

Silently I ask, how can THIS be boring?

Where did it come from, our love of snow?

Is it tales we were told as we did grow?

A Dickensian Christmas, that Victorian twee

Stories that were told at our mothers knee?

But that season has gone and Easter is nigh

Oh finally, at last, you fall from the sky

Winter, was it always your intention to bring

Late season joy, stick two fingers up to spring?

So is this it, the last hooray, the last gasp?

Or will you lock us in with your icy hasp?

If this is it, winter's going away

No questions asked, I'm going to play

But hubby's asleep and my children have flown

Sensible, mature with babes of their own

They live far away, well all but one

So quietly I dress and off I do run

Will I get into trouble, do I care

As I knock at the window, ask 'anyone there?'

A face it appears, eyes full of glee

It's my baby's babe, 'Hello Nanny!'

Aubrey my dear, will you come out to play?

We can dance, roll and shout before it all goes away

I've got my brown coat and we can run wild

And here in the snow, you can be Gruffalo's child

Does it matter if she's tired and grumpy by tea?

Mummy and Daddy yelling at me

'Mother grow up, you're not young, you're old'

'What possible joy can you see in this cold?'

So I'll say I tried, to infect them with this affliction

To instil this desire, this addiction

But I failed in my aim, although I really did try

To pass on my love, of magic that fell from the sky

And so it's my duty to the next generation

To pass on this love, this veneration

For Unicorn kisses and fairy dust glitter

That comes from heaven when the weather is bitter

Edited by jethro
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