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With a combination of wishful thinking and ignorance I was lead to believe that this up and coming severe cold spell was going to be locked in fore the foreseeable, and we were going to be treated to days of sub zero temps and snowfall. Now even as it arrives it is being eroded by African air, I do hope that the situation changes for the better as we approach the end of the week.

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54 minutes ago, AtlanticFlamethrower said:

From the Model Thread

 

 

This is a very very good ramp from Lowerstoft Weather but it does not factor in any progressive downgrading of the cool pool and upgrading of the Saharan draw. On the 06z temps as high as 8C at 850 hpa lap the northern coast of France. Imagine this upgrading to 10C and getting a bit further north on the next runs. As it snows the warm air will be pushed to the surface and it will all turn to rain and wash the snow away in a great flood. This is much more likely because it's #BarbecueFriday.

 

I know it is the moan thread but is it not possible to be a touch more realistic even though your preference is for mild rather than cold?

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1 hour ago, snowflakey said:

With a combination of wishful thinking and ignorance I was lead to believe that this up and coming severe cold spell was going to be locked in fore the foreseeable, and we were going to be treated to days of sub zero temps and snowfall. Now even as it arrives it is being eroded by African air, I do hope that the situation changes for the better as we approach the end of the week.

What on earth are you on about? The deep cold isn't even here yet let alone 'eroded by African air'. What utter nonsense!

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what a stunning day it has been, temps were forecast to be a high of 3c, its currently 5.9c, clear blue sky and just a very light breeze, makes me think that next week is not going to be as cold as people think.

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The coming 5 days is as good as it gets for the UK. Blizzards forecast for the south coast come the end of the week. Before that heavy snow for the Midlands on Tues and more snow for the north on Weds. A biting easterly wind. If you are not content with this, you should probably be looking to emigrate to a colder place.

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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5 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

what a stunning day it has been, temps were forecast to be a high of 3c, its currently 5.9c, clear blue sky and just a very light breeze, makes me think that next week is not going to be as cold as people think.

I wouldn't bank on that we are not in the cold air yet, Quite

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27 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

what a stunning day it has been, temps were forecast to be a high of 3c, its currently 5.9c, clear blue sky and just a very light breeze, makes me think that next week is not going to be as cold as people think.

The cold air hasn't fully arrived yet making steady progress west

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49 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

what a stunning day it has been, temps were forecast to be a high of 3c, its currently 5.9c, clear blue sky and just a very light breeze, makes me think that next week is not going to be as cold as people think.

Complacency in this instance normally ends up as fatalities

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3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I know it is the moan thread but is it not possible to be a touch more realistic even though your preference is for mild rather than cold?

You took my post too seriously. I don't have a preference for mild. 

Nothing wrong with quoting an interesting source of information and working in a mild interpretation that is probably not warranted. 

 

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3 hours ago, snowflakey said:

With a combination of wishful thinking and ignorance I was lead to believe that this up and coming severe cold spell was going to be locked in fore the foreseeable, and we were going to be treated to days of sub zero temps and snowfall. Now even as it arrives it is being eroded by African air, I do hope that the situation changes for the better as we approach the end of the week.

Probably more likely eroded by our own hot air swirling round, mixing with a bit of Gibraltar hot air and then back again, primarily driven by the heat coming out the back of our overworked laptops.

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1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

what a stunning day it has been, temps were forecast to be a high of 3c, its currently 5.9c, clear blue sky and just a very light breeze, makes me think that next week is not going to be as cold as people think.

Absolutely cracking day in the Solent area.....gin clear skies and not at all cold out of the wind. What is noticeable is the strength of the sun. Looking at the MOD thread it seems likely that the end of the week sees wet and milder rather than the blizzards forecast recently. By this time next week spring will be in the ascendancy 

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2 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

what a stunning day it has been, temps were forecast to be a high of 3c, its currently 5.9c, clear blue sky and just a very light breeze, makes me think that next week is not going to be as cold as people think.

lol..the cold airmass hasn't even arrived yet.

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Met forecast it turning colder in the afternoon yesterday but it didn’t happen like that,beautiful day and temps higher than forecast yesterday,bit worrying the Met got it wrong 12 hours beforehand.

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Well, the UKMO is an improvement (though still gets positive 850's over my location). GFS = worse. Only some night-time snow before it's washed away by daylight. Hopefully the UKMO is closer (though I suspect it would turn milder after T+144 anyway).

A couple ECM runs showed 5+ ice days with lying snow continuing into next week for Exeter, with very low minima. That's worth the ramping and historic labels. Shame that looks to be almost off the table now. With this frigid airmass mixed out, anything afterwards is unlikely to be 'worth it' down here.

Ok so there could be a major event in the SW, but that could still be after dark and melt by dawn.
One possible ice day Thursday, but not really a historic 'spell' here even with very cold uppers (though any brief flirtation with -15C 850s may pass north of me anyway). A bit like a brief flirtation with 20C uppers in summer doesn't necessarily mean a historic heatwave.

This easterly is it for me. After mid March I'm not really looking for cold synoptics, they have to be more exceptional for the time of year to be worth it down here (other than the normal frost/wintry showers). We're having one chance with exceptional charts now, and it's very unlikely to be bettered.

Don't get me wrong, I will be looking forward to what I can experience this notable week (outside work) and whatever Thursday-Friday brings! I'm still relatively happy about that (apart from GFS suggesting I might struggle to even get an ice day on Thursday now..) Just a little disappointing compared to what 'could have been'.

Yes this is an IMBY post. Looks better the further north you go (like this winter in general).

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I've been at scarborough today on the north east coast with my family. 

It was packed people walking on the seafront and beach children building sand castles and people with ice cream 

Glorious sunny day not to cold either 

The BBC has us folk in the north east for good sunny spells and light snow flurries Monday Tuesday and Wednesday. 

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12z GFS returns us to a #BarbecueFriday with 8 degrees reached on the south coast, 4C dewpoints widespread, all rain.

This could all change again with the next runs but it seems likely that for us to have any chance of a blizzard on the Friday we need to get widespread snow showers and lying snow established over Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, which could feedback into the data and change things.

 

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8 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I've been at scarborough today on the north east coast with my family. 

It was packed people walking on the seafront and beach children building sand castles and people with ice cream 

Glorious sunny day not to cold either 

The BBC has us folk in the north east for good sunny spells and light snow flurries Monday Tuesday and Wednesday. 

If it's Scarborough for rest of week.That's wrong.

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