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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ygz0iw2fD_o

Well if anybody does get hit by blizzard conditions next week here's a great soundtrack to one from the 1994 SNES game 'Donkey Kong Country' called 'Northern Hemispheres' it starts off slow in anticipation of the coming snowstorm and then really takes off when it hits. Very atmospheric like a lot of the tracks in that series of games.

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A few thoughts.

ECM 00z was a massive BANK
5a91ade2324c2_yr.noexeter2.thumb.png.1b08a7f30cc1d46e0a9c36a86733ad71.png

Would have been perfect, the low gives significant snow and backs off allowing it to stay very cold over snow fields. So probably a 'historic' cold spell.

Problem is the move to get the low too far north on all models now. Even if we did stay in the cold air, it won't be that cold without snow cover.

The wind also stops minima getting lower than -4C on the forecasts for me. Notable to get that low with wind, but we get that low nearly every winter, and had -14.0C in December 2010. Exeter Aiport had -16.5C.

Wind makes a huge difference for low levels/valleys around here. In contrast, higher hills especially the Moors may experience their coldest temps for a while...

However, another disappointing thing is -15C uppers look not to arrive so much (or be v brief/go north of me), Where are they on the ECM? Scotland also seems to get colder uppers despite getting a longer sea track, and they do best from northerlies and have done much better this winter.

So a notable cold snap spell, but a historic spell it is unlikely to be (for here).
 

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Reading the mod thread at the moment, brb. 

giphy.gif

Edited by draztik
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The mod thread *ahhh facepalm*

Still got some days of interesting to weather to come, even if by the end of next weekend, any snow get's confined to the Scottish mountains

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So at the moment we are looking at what, 4 ice days, with snow for many, in late February and early March, and people are calling the ECM run a disaster or such nonsense simply because it doesn't last for another week? 

You can tell that people have become spoilt by the exceptional output. Quite pathetic really. Everyone on here would have sold their granny for this a month ago. 

Edited by cheese
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Well because there might be 0 ice days and no notable minima here, and uncertain if/how much snow will filter through to my area. 

Ok yes a notable few days, but I'll have to work in a cold minimally heated building next week (proper cold starts Monday), miss much of the interest and have it all washed away by the weekend when I could get out and enjoy it. So I'm also jaffa cakesed off with the timing.

I understand your point but it has annoyed me a bit in part due to my location. But then if I was too annoyed I'd have broken my own rule that FI is FI no matter how the models appear to agree. Oh well, guess I can't help getting sucked in a bit too.

 

It could backtrack, but I'm not expecting it to correct south enough for me. When the high res operationals all latch on to something at day 5/6 it rarely seems to get undone.

Edited by Evening thunder

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Related image

 

Sometimes you want to ask people on the MAD thread to sling their hook.. Great charts with ice days for many and snow for many that say they are starved this year, yet some of the same snow starved people are arguing about a breakdown after a week of cold and possibly record breaking so.

 

No wonder we don't get cold, we don't deserve it.

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before the christmas pudding though, but hope it ends up something like this! mild air was forecast to move north, but refused to, still remember this event now!

but tough ask in 2018?

 

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9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

before the christmas pudding though, but hope it ends up something like this! mild air was forecast to move north, but refused to, still remember this event now!

but tough ask in 2018?

 

It happened at the start of February 2010

gfs-2010020100-0-192.png

What happened

gfs-2010020900-0-6.png

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Wouldn't be netweather without the drama would it?

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Week ahead forecast 2155 cold weather to continue into next weekend with possibility of

More snow even in the south suggests to me the models could flip again in the next day or two.

C.S

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2 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

What does FWIW mean? 

In the case of the model thread, "Forgot where I was"

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2 minutes ago, AtlanticFlamethrower said:

ECM and GFS both agree on an early Spring. #BarbecueFriday

 

 

Yes, it's not really about how far North or South the low is, it's about how it won't move East. Was always a risk with an Easterly that you start to draw air from Southern Europe instead of North.

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36 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Yes, it's not really about how far North or South the low is, it's about how it won't move East. Was always a risk with an Easterly that you start to draw air from Southern Europe instead of North.

Exactly the point. If it gets east of the UK its snow all the way even if it gets well up the north sea. If it sits to our south or SW the end is inevitable. Very fine margins as demonstrated by the GEFS tonight!

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The beast from East is arriving. Enjoy the week. 

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Looking at the latest model output, I'm bemused and rather depressed! (Also a little drunk!)

Met office were indicating prolonged cold into March but it would appear this 'epic cold spell' will end during Thursday in the South!

And, little in the way of snow expected around London & SE Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday but then from Thursday it will be pouring down with rain!

F****** unbelievable!

Roll-on Spring!

 

 

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Assuming yday's model runs are on right track then some head scratching going on amongst NW's 'big guns'. Their absent posts today are v noticeable. It was meant to be an epic 2-week cold spell.

But hang on - it was only meant to really start about now.

24 hours ago the Friday LP was predicted to head into France come Friday but now it seems it's planning to barrel its way through England bringing less cold temps eventually.

Will be a "snap" or a "spell"?

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Assuming yday's model runs are on right track then some head scratching going on amongst NW's 'big guns'. Their absent posts today are v noticeable. It was meant to be an epic 2-week cold spell.

But hang on - it was only meant to really start about now.

24 hours ago the Friday LP was predicted to head into France come Friday but now it seems it's planning to barrel its way through England bringing less cold temps eventually.

Will be a "snap" or a "spell"?

It's beginning to look like a 'Snap'!

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I suppose it was never going to last long considering it's almost Spring!

Why isn't Knocker posting?

Edited by snowblizzard

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The main model discussion thread has become the southern England cold break down thread,so is this perhaps the place to discuss what the models are showing? Looking back on similar scenarios is probably the best way for anyone struggling with model projection,given that the channel low is appearing in F1 ( and it is in F1).As many have alluded to,these upcoming conditions have been only dreams for a good few years now and as they take a grip on the country it remains to be seen what happens both locally and nationally.The big breakdown (as progged by GFS) might never happen and until we get this week up and running,it’s best to keep one eye on the models and the other on historical data,which is reality fodder.

 

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Air temperature in Moscow Saturday only -10c

Modified before reaching UK, that will probably be above Zero!

Ice days Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday?

Difficult to imagine.

I remember January 1987 temperatures in Moscow were around -30c

Maximum temperature in Kent was around -4c (slightly lower during heavy snow showers)

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