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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Looking at the latest model output, I'm bemused and rather depressed! (Also a little drunk!)

Met office were indicating prolonged cold into March but it would appear this 'epic cold spell' will end during Thursday in the South!

And, little in the way of snow expected around London & SE Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday but then from Thursday it will be pouring down with rain!

F****** unbelievable!

Roll-on Spring!

 

 

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Assuming yday's model runs are on right track then some head scratching going on amongst NW's 'big guns'. Their absent posts today are v noticeable. It was meant to be an epic 2-week cold spell.

But hang on - it was only meant to really start about now.

24 hours ago the Friday LP was predicted to head into France come Friday but now it seems it's planning to barrel its way through England bringing less cold temps eventually.

Will be a "snap" or a "spell"?

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Assuming yday's model runs are on right track then some head scratching going on amongst NW's 'big guns'. Their absent posts today are v noticeable. It was meant to be an epic 2-week cold spell.

But hang on - it was only meant to really start about now.

24 hours ago the Friday LP was predicted to head into France come Friday but now it seems it's planning to barrel its way through England bringing less cold temps eventually.

Will be a "snap" or a "spell"?

It's beginning to look like a 'Snap'!

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The main model discussion thread has become the southern England cold break down thread,so is this perhaps the place to discuss what the models are showing? Looking back on similar scenarios is probably the best way for anyone struggling with model projection,given that the channel low is appearing in F1 ( and it is in F1).As many have alluded to,these upcoming conditions have been only dreams for a good few years now and as they take a grip on the country it remains to be seen what happens both locally and nationally.The big breakdown (as progged by GFS) might never happen and until we get this week up and running,it’s best to keep one eye on the models and the other on historical data,which is reality fodder.

 

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Air temperature in Moscow Saturday only -10c

Modified before reaching UK, that will probably be above Zero!

Ice days Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday?

Difficult to imagine.

I remember January 1987 temperatures in Moscow were around -30c

Maximum temperature in Kent was around -4c (slightly lower during heavy snow showers)

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11 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Air temperature in Moscow Saturday only -10c

Modified before reaching UK, that will probably be above Zero!

Ice days Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday?

Difficult to imagine.

I remember January 1987 temperatures in Moscow were around -30c

Maximum temperature in Kent was around -4c (slightly lower during heavy snow showers)

@0.8 degrees c we had this on the 10th Dec 2017 - 15cm

Garden Snow 101217-120.JPG

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWELWYN8#history/s20171208/e20180225/mcustom

...so check the above link to see it doesn't have to be Alaska to get snow

Edited by Pixel
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The cold forecast for my location is comparable to cold snaps over the last few years so unless a dumping of snow makes it this far inland it's looking like a predictable non event for me. 

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You know what if forecasts only went out a couple of days or we had no access to any models, maybe we would actually enjoy any cold weather for what it is, when it is, rather than actually worrying about how soon it will breakdown. I sometimes think all this long term model watching actually spoils it all for us and serves our peace of mind pretty badly. Point is if you get some snow appreciate and enjoy its presence in the there and then rather than making a big deal about how long it may or may not last, as it won't be forever regardless and few cold spells last a very long time this far west in Eurasia even in the heart of Winter as its just not normal to. A lot of this snow craving is also based on nostalgia, but with the exception of a small handful of times, a lot of cold and snowy spells rarely made it over a week before milder air displaced it. And I bet back then you all enjoyed it in the moment without getting hung up about how soon it might end as you either weren't overly concerned or your expectations on how long it might stick around for were perhaps more realistic before model viewing took over your lives and this idea that anything less than 2 weeks to 2 months just won't do. Anyway rant over and good luck to all this week for some snow however long it may be on the ground for.

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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Air temperature in Moscow Saturday only -10c

Modified before reaching UK, that will probably be above Zero!

Ice days Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday?

Difficult to imagine.

I remember January 1987 temperatures in Moscow were around -30c

Maximum temperature in Kent was around -4c (slightly lower during heavy snow showers)

Currently -20C in Moscow, falling to -25C. Not sure what you're talking about.

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13 minutes ago, cheese said:

Currently -20C in Moscow, falling to -25C. Not sure what you're talking about.

I know exactly what he is talking about.In that Easterly of January 1987,the cold spell was well forecast and the temperatures around Moscow were around -30c.As the air moved west it crossed the North Sea which was around +7c and the end product visited this country at around -5c through the day.The heavy snow showers were persistent and accumulative.

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I'm actually quite disgusted by some of the comments in this and the other thread over the last couple of pages. From calling out the more knowledgeable posters because the models have changed slightly, by people who add nothing to the forum at all, to people moaning about an apparent southern bias which is absolute nonsense. 

No-one who posts in the MOD thread, or any other thread for that matter, is under any obligation to post for everyone elses convenience! Last time I checked, the Model thread was not a 'weather forecasting thread'!

Edited by Nizzer
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48 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

I'm actually quite disgusted by some of the comments in this and the other thread over the last couple of pages. From calling out the more knowledgeable posters because the models have changed slightly, by people who add nothing to the forum at all, to people moaning about an apparent southern bias which is absolute nonsense. 

No-one who posts in the MOD thread, or any other thread for that matter, is under any obligation to post for everyone elses convenience! Last time I checked, the Model thread was not a 'weather forecasting thread'!

The problem is, you're dealing with complex and ambiguous weather forecasts and the interaction of these with complex and real human beings.  Yes, it's frustrating and yes a great deal of nonsense is propagated by people who should know better, but also remember the real gems here who add so much value to all of our knowledge about weather.  

Nothing is perfect.

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4 hours ago, cheese said:

Currently -20C in Moscow, falling to -25C. Not sure what you're talking about.

What I'm talking about is, it was only -10c in Moscow on Saturday

Todays high in Moscow -13c 

Our air source is from that direction so modified air temperatures would mean that we would not see sub zero during the day in UK!

But, the temperature could fall below zero during snow showers. 

So, my point is, this week will be nothing like 1987 or 1991 in terms of the actual temperature on the thermometer but the wind chill will still be pretty wicked! 

Edited by snowblizzard
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4 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

What I'm talking about is it was only -10c in Moscow on Saturday

Todays high in Moscow -13c 

Our air source is from that direction so modified air temperatures would mean that we would not see sub zero during the day in UK!

But, the temperature could fall below zero during snow showers. 

So, my point is, this week will be nothing like 1987 or 1991 in terms of the actual temperature on the thermometer but the wind chill will still be pretty wicked! 

With all due respect, I'm not sure what you think is relevant - the Met Office are forecasting sub-zero highs here and that is exactly what I expect. In 1987 we had highs of -6C, of course we're not going to get anything like that. February 1991 only had highs of -1C though so that's easily doable in what is exceptionally cold air for any time of year.

Edited by cheese
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10 minutes ago, cheese said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure what you think is relevant - the Met Office are forecasting sub-zero highs here and that is exactly what I expect. In 1987 we had highs of -6C, of course we're not going to get anything like that. 1991 only had highs if -1C though so that's easily doable. 

We will see.

But I recon most parts of UK will get above zero during the day this week, but only just!

Wednesday looks like it might be the coldest?

Edited by snowblizzard
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No mention during the recent BBC forecast of a breakdown at the end of the week. If anything, the forecast focused on increasing cold, increasing wind chill (feeling like -15 in places by Wednesday) and the increasing risk of heavy and disruptive snow for the South towards the end of the week (Thursday and Friday), not to mention snow showers and bands of snow effecting all parts of the UK throughout the week. 

Nothing to moan about there, just pure classic winter bliss even if we are heading into March. 

Ramp mode 100% on!

But on a serious note, keep an eye on the vulnerable (the young and the elderly) including our animal friends as this event is going to be about as bad as winter gets for us here in Blighty ?

❄️?❄️?❄️?❄️?❄️

 

 

 

 

Edited by Fitzwis
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Problem is, we are seeing the latest model updates come out and the trend is clear. The BBC forecasts are often a touch behind, as might be the Met Office's written forecasts, as good as they are they are not infallible (and do they have a better model than the ECM?). Of course the BBC don't use the Met Office now anyway.

Having said that, that is correct up to at least Thursday (and probably Friday away from the south).

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1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

Problem is, we are seeing the latest model updates come out and the trend is clear. The BBC forecasts are often a touch behind, as might be the Met Office's written forecasts, as good as they are they are not infallible (and do they have a better model than the ECM?). Of course the BBC don't use the Met Office now anyway.

Having said that, that is correct up to at least Thursday (and probably Friday away from the south).

From what I understand meteo group, who provide the bbc forecast, have accesss to all of the met office Models. So ifectively they use the same data. 

 

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2 hours ago, cheese said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure what you think is relevant - the Met Office are forecasting sub-zero highs here and that is exactly what I expect. In 1987 we had highs of -6C, of course we're not going to get anything like that. February 1991 only had highs of -1C though so that's easily doable in what is exceptionally cold air for any time of year.

Highs were -4 in feb 1991

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Not sure where to put this, but it's model-related yet a bit silly, so... if you're using weather.us to look at ECM ensembles etc but find the use of Fahrenheit and inches annoying, go down to the bottom left of the page and change your country selection to one of the Koreas. Yes, really. Perhaps surprisingly, the site language will still be English. Now, go to the forecast box and type in your location as usual. Ta-da! You'll now see temperatures in Celsius, precipitation in mm and snow depth in cm! :) Wind speeds will be in km/h, so you'll need to move back to the United States setting to see them in mph.

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From the Model Thread

Quote

 

Those members getting anxious about the end of next weeks possible snow event should relax. Not only are recent GFS/ECM outputs likely to change being so far out (T+120) but by then the UK will be entrenched in bitterly cold surface temperature's which are notoriously difficult to budge once established. Look at it this way. We will be starting with maximum surface temperature's (end of next week) at or below freezing. Every km ^ the temperature drops by 6.5C. 850hpa is 1.5km ^, so the temperature will be 10C less than the surface, so roughly -10C. Then add in this morning's less cold 850hpa temperatures for next Friday (+8C). STILL minus at 850hpa so from ground upwards the air will be sub-zero. It will still mean what falls from the sky will be snow........ALL the way up. NO rain. To add thickness levels will be perfect for some really heavy snowfalls.

Anyway, we have lots of snowfall to nowcast before then...... pointless looking at the snow forecast charts from now on. Better off watching the radar and satellite for real developments or looking at the latest FAX outputs.

Lowestoft Weather

 

 

 

This is a very very good ramp from Lowerstoft Weather but it does not factor in any progressive downgrading of the cool pool and upgrading of the Saharan draw. On the 06z temps as high as 8C at 850 hpa lap the northern coast of France. Imagine this upgrading to 10C and getting a bit further north on the next runs. As it snows the warm air will be pushed to the surface and it will all turn to rain and wash the snow away in a great flood. This is much more likely because it's #BarbecueFriday.

 

Edited by AtlanticFlamethrower
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