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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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19 minutes ago, Shunter said:

Agree. But given the almost unanimous agreement of abnormal cold and snow an early headline advisory ( heads up ) would appear sensible to those planning long distance travel over the weekend.

The discrepancy is extraordinary. The Met Office now have my location under a mixture of heavy and light snow continuously for two days from Monday evening, whereas the BBC is still suggesting breezy light cloud throughout that time apart from a single snow shower on Tuesday morning. It's very misleading for those with important appointments and travel plans if the Beeb with Meteogroup input now intends to sit firmly on the fence pretty much until the weather is actually happening.

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Just wondering , given the fact that the 47 winter  started mid Jan , and was based around a  large Scandinavian High , does this upcoming one bear any similarities ?. Apparently it was one of the snowiest on record.

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23 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Unless I am mistaken there is no major threat over the weekend!

To add to that, BBC now only get warnings from UK Met, I suspect this anomaly is going to be fairly evident at times, both in the near future and when BBC have differing data from that UK Met use. Who would be a weather presenter in these situations, not an easy job.

Interestingly John according their site MeteoGroup have R&D in the UKMet model

 

https://www.meteogroup.com/about-meteogroup

Given that blurb it probably means that it comes down the human interpretation( Chief Forecaster?) on weather warnings and there is  almost certainly a process to be followed and is being followed ?

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if this Easterly literally goes south then i'd probably give up all weather watching and probably all hope too. 

Nothing like 2 weeks of dramatic tempting expectant big cold - snow, once in a lifetime event, to be shown and then mercilessly denied at so close a time... 

to make one feel so empty and cheated. 

that's how I'll feel if it doesn't pan out. be prepared for the worst. 

but quietly hope for the best. ? 

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38 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Interestingly John according their site MeteoGroup have R&D in the UKMet model

 

https://www.meteogroup.com/about-meteogroup

Given that blurb it probably means that it comes down the human interpretation( Chief Forecaster?) on weather warnings and there is  almost certainly a process to be followed and is being followed ?

They describe themselves as "The global weather authority"

Yeah, not sure I like that. I wonder what the tender process was at the Beeb? A discussion for another thread though.

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43 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Interestingly John according their site MeteoGroup have R&D in the UKMet model

 

https://www.meteogroup.com/about-meteogroup

Given that blurb it probably means that it comes down the human interpretation( Chief Forecaster?) on weather warnings and there is  almost certainly a process to be followed and is being followed ?

Not sure I understand what you are saying there, sorry

Forecasts come from Meteogroup, how much if any human intervention before it gets to the BBC forecaster I do not know.

The warnings are issued to the BBC by Met O Exeter.

Which is why I suggest two sources using different data sources. A recipe at some stage for a 'cock-up', excuse the word!

Anyway it is best to carry on this in the media area I think?

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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

BBC going for a chance of snow next week suppose it's ,better than the whole of uk will be dry next week they put on their forecast graphic a couple of days ago.

yet met office being say snow showers and threat of prolonged. snow for what seems like ages now,think BBC using metogroup for their forecasts now was a bad idea 

 

The BBC weather is a waste of time. Stick to the charts ?

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There is a very short distance between very cold uppers and a more springlike set of uppers and each run appears to bring spring like warmth very close to us?

One wrong placed low and we see spring not a last chance of winter!

Will the models ramp up and make things more secure looking or will they pull back and have a watered down version with a mixed bag of wintry showers and more early spring like conditions

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One Grumble i have  is not with the weather but the Locations they stat on the weather forecast etc.  I mean what is the South Of the Uk   were does it finish?.  Confuses me.  alas dosent take alot

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35 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Wonder how soon Exeter will put on warnings for snow showers for Monday which is already in range.

Doubt we will see anything before Sat evening in terms of region specific snow warnings, they'll need to be sure of flow/small features etc - look at the FAX charts for an idea of their thinking.  Generalised cold and ice warnings probably a lot sooner.

Edited by swebby
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