Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[snowblizzard]

Would I be right in thinking that the Low (1003) over the Med would help prevent the Scandi High from sinking and assist the Easterly flow? 

[knocker]

54 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Would I be right in thinking that the Low (1003) over the Med would help prevent the Scandi High from sinking and assist the Easterly flow? 

IMHO I'm not sure it's terrible helpful to think of an individual surface feature such as the low pressure in the Mediterranean as 'holding up' the anticyclone as they are both part of the interconnected upper level pattern of highs and lows which are part of the dynamical troposphere as can be seen by the chart below. The surface features devolve from this  Hope this helps (I know it can be a little confusing having different map projections)

Edited February 21, 2018 by knocker

[swebby]

51 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Would I be right in thinking that the Low (1003) over the Med would help prevent the Scandi High from sinking and assist the Easterly flow? 

That is what peeps (coldies at least) tend to look for, a low centered over Northern Italy, propping up a scandi HP and strengthening an Easterly flow although it's all a bit chicken and egg to my mind (i.e. is the low supporting the high or in situ because of the high?) as everything is linked to everything else hemispheric-ally.  In this instance i'd go with the consensus that the high is a response to strat forcing and the low simply goes hand in hand with it. 

edit - ah knockers beaten me to it!

Edited February 21, 2018 by swebby

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

That is what peeps (coldies at least) tend to look for, a low centered over Northern Italy, propping up a scandi HP and strengthening an Easterly flow although it's all a bit chicken and egg to my mind (i.e. is the low supporting the high or in situ because of the high?) as everything is linked to everything else hemispheric-ally.  In this instance i'd go with the consensus that the high is a response to strat forcing and the low simply goes hand in hand with it. 

edit - ah knockers beaten me to it!

Ah swebby as to why we have the current troposphere pattern is an entirely different question which I suspect has been adequately covered elsewhere and in any case where angels fear to tread etc. And not only that it's way beyond my pay grade

[cobbett]

and so it starts ...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

[offerman]

5 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather for Kent & Sussex showing max temps for Monday & Tuesday at 3C/4C!

If the -15c 850 isotherm is close to SE (as predicted) with brisk Easterly winds surely the temps wouldn't get as high as 4C?

Brilliant question SnowBlizzard. My app actually shows temps rising, coldest day Tuesday at 2 but then up to 4. 

I suspect if it snows then we will be seeing temps of -4 and with snow -6 in the day -10-15 at night due to snowcover.

 

BBC ALWAYS UNDERPLAY temps by a few degress in cold blasts and they do the same with hot weather, always 3 degrees out until nearer the time and then they raise temps or lower them

 

BBC will also lower their temps near the time by 3 degress just watch them. They are fence sitters for sure.

[swebby]

 

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ah swebby as to why we have the current troposphere pattern is an entirely different question which I suspect has been adequately covered elsewhere and in any case where angels fear to tread etc. And not only that it's way beyond my pay grade

And in that case - even further beyond mine!

There appears to be enough bona fide meteorological researchers out in the twittersphere  (plus some excellent well informed contributors to this site) that confirm this pattern as being a direct response to the strat pattern.  It's certainly a fascinating and developing aspect of meteorology, the idea that models were starting in late january to genuinely flag a strat warming and therefore the possible knock effects on our weather a month later would have raised numerous eyebrows not long ago.  As with any new field of science - more data, more testing required.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, swebby said:

 

And in that case - even further beyond mine!

There appears to be enough bona fide meteorological researchers out in the twittersphere  (plus some excellent well informed contributors to this site) that confirm this pattern as being a direct response to the strat pattern.  It's certainly a fascinating and developing aspect of meteorology, the idea that models were starting in late january to genuinely flag a strat warming and therefore the possible knock effects on our weather a month later would have raised numerous eyebrows not long ago.  As with any new field of science - more data, more testing required.

Yes I agree that with but I was thinking of other teleconnections that also had a role to play in the whole evolution. And of course we are also talking in terms of months. For example

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059637/pdf

Edited February 21, 2018 by knocker

[offerman]

45 minutes ago, cobbett said:

and so it starts ...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

Cheers Cobbett

[swebby]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes I agree that with but I was thinking of other teleconnections that also had a role to play in the whole evolution. And of course we are also talking in terms of months. For example

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059637/pdf

Indeed and whilst this pattern fits predictions, a bigger data set is always required to distinguish the symptomatic responses from causes etc, again very chicken and egg! Improve our understanding of cause/effect of one teleconnection simply highlights our ignorance of another.

Edit - should add, this still means we are no nearer to knowing if it'll snow in Carlisle.....

Edited February 21, 2018 by swebby

[Danielvn]

1 hour ago, offerman said:

Brilliant question SnowBlizzard. My app actually shows temps rising, coldest day Tuesday at 2 but then up to 4. 

I suspect if it snows then we will be seeing temps of -4 and with snow -6 in the day -10-15 at night due to snowcover.

 

BBC ALWAYS UNDERPLAY temps by a few degress in cold blasts and they do the same with hot weather, always 3 degrees out until nearer the time and then they raise temps or lower them

 

BBC will also lower their temps near the time by 3 degress just watch them. They are fence sitters for sure.

I would very much agree with this statement. They always seem to be a couple of degrees off a few days out. I miss the range of possible temps they used to give on their 5-10 day forecasts...

[offerman]

Nice to free post in here Dan,  I have been banned on MAD thread. Very OTT mod or two in there. Weird thing is when i try to post, all my posts get blocked upon review and despite me mentioning about charts etc or not being gfuqhgfpjhy or anything they have completely stopped on my last 7 posts to even forward them on to the thread there. 

 

Thanks for your reply and agreement about bbc and temps. Also miss the 5-10 range temps too.

[Tonyinhampshire]

I've just seen BBC weather. They say it will get colder, but there's uncertainty how cold. There's possibility it will go to France and Spain. Is this a trend ?

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, Tonyinhampshire said:

I've just seen BBC weather. They say it will get colder, but there's uncertainty how cold. There's possibility it will go to France and Spain. Is this a trend ?

It has been a possibility for a few days as shown in some model perbs. Catacol has flagged the possibility a number of times.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

26 minutes ago, offerman said:

Nice to free post in here Dan,  I have been banned on MAD thread. Very OTT mod or two in there. Weird thing is when i try to post, all my posts get blocked upon review and despite me mentioning about charts etc or not being gfuqhgfpjhy or anything they have completely stopped on my last 7 posts to even forward them on to the thread there. 

 

Thanks for your reply and agreement about bbc and temps. Also miss the 5-10 range temps too.

weird that, and certain member hasn't, last post page 41, never posts charts, and an off topic one liner again

[frosty ground]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This is my 5484th post....Will I by any chance get some flurries next week?

 BFTP

 

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

weird that, and certain member hasn't, last post page 41, never posts charts, and an off topic one liner again

That post above, posted all of 9 minutes before your post?

Have you alerted a mod?

What no? probably why it's not been removed. Or

What you have? Well its only been up for a few minutes give them a chance!

[offerman]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

 

That post above, posted all of 9 minutes before your post?

Have you alerted a mod?

What no? probably why it's not been removed. Or

What you have? Well its only been up for a few minutes give them a chance!

Sorry, I meant my posts on MAD thread. On here they come through straight away.

I don`t post charts that often over there as countless same ones are being repeated often so no point posting charts that have already been illustrated over there.  I have however posted many times about the charts or asked questions too or given advice to newbies about charts and longer term ones. Extremely sensitive folk over there. What is strange is that there are many posts off topic there and people really getting annoyed with each other and posts far worse than mine were yet they didn't get banned?

[snow freak]

18 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

It has been a possibility for a few days as shown in some model perbs. Catacol has flagged the possibility a number of times.

would just be our luck after all of this for the severe cold to be redirected to France and Spain.  As is they don't get the cold and heat during the year as it is.  We always get the scraps on this island.

 

[Chris D]

Pretty stark langauage in the Met Office 10 day trend forecast...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sir0p7u7XrQ

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Chris D

[mountain shadow]

I don't bother looking at the models now, I just look to see who is posting in the MOD thread to determine whether it's "good" or "bad" for snow  and cold.

 

[Deep Snow please]

 

16 minutes ago, Chris D said:

Pretty stark langauage in the Met Office 10 day trend forecast...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sir0p7u7XrQ

 

Well that's definitely the biggest cold ramp I've seen from the MetOffice for many a year. With that and last nights BBC forecast I'm becoming increasingly confident, they're obviously entertaining the idea of a low pressure in the mix with talk of significant snow anywhere.

[DaBrigg]

Ive been lurking here, reading all the arguments on both sides. 

As I see it... (from an IMBY perspective in Eastern Ireland). 

... the deep cold has been pushed back 48hours now from what the earliest runs were suggesting..still outside the reliable time frame.

..there are now higher 850temps progged for Monday than Saturday!!

..thickness are struggling to get down below 520 this far west until well into fantasy island, they remain fairly high through Tuesday, whereas sub 510dam air had been forecasted on many model runs.

Those who are afraid of further downgrades have every right to be concerned. Its not a case of being spoilt after such amazing runs. It looks increasingly underwhelming from where Im sitting.

[swebby]

Oh dear, think the MAD thread is about to become the region v region thread again like in December - may have another 4 days of this kind of nonsense until some snow actually arrives to placate some and disappoint others.

[Yarmy]

500 posts an hour over there. Some folk seem to be personally offended by inter-run variability. The UKMO has moved the HLB south (oh no!), the GFS has moved it north (hurrah!). All the models that go beyond T144 are retrogressing it towards Greenland anyway, so...

[TyphoonNow]

how do i block a user via phone?