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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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5 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

If you think some in the mod thread have entered ramp mode;

 
Found while looking for met office twitter.

 

A viewer tweeted in today, saying that he heard that 10 feet of snow was on the way; don't worry it isn't, but there could be a few light flurries in eastern coastal regions.

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4 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

I go on holiday next Monday.

i want to cry.

I'm off on Saturday to Austria.  Three checks of the 10 day weather in 24 hours have shown me no days with snow then 8 days with snow and the latest with just one day of snow!

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10 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'm off on Saturday to Austria.  Three checks of the 10 day weather in 24 hours have shown me no days with snow then 8 days with snow and the latest with just one day of snow!

I haven’t checked the snow real in Tenerife, but I imagine it is significantly worse still.:sorry:

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1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

It's been this way since the site started. It was like that on the old BBC Snow Watch forum too! It's why most people visit. The chase is sometimes just as good as the actual outcome! It would be rather boring if you just had one or two guys posting a weather forecast everyday wouldn't it?!

You are so right - from a psychology point of view I reckon the winter models chase hits the same highs and lows in the brain  as gambling - particularly something like roulette where you can go on big wining and losing steaks with rapid changes of fortunes.  I should know - I do both!

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32 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

He's on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/modernwinter?lang=en

Top tweet is a retweeted ramp. :shok:

Mostly it's anti-EU, pro-Corbyn mince though.

More scary is that he's got 77 followers :fool:. Presumably they are 'snowflakes' :rofl:

Anyways, back on topic. Fabulous ECM this evening with much more snow in the offing. The GFS seemed to be one of the poorer options in its ensemble suite this evening so hopefully a more interesting pub run coming up.

Looks like NE is first in the firing line on Sunday with a gradual ramping up of showers in the SE over the following 24 hours.

  

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6 hours ago, Number 23 said:

Hello there - is the 'claret' a wine preference or a football one? Looks like we may be in the firing line, here but we'll see.

Oh no, don't want to bring the carnage on here as well!

Hello Number 23.

The Claret is a football one- Chelmsford City. I am a steward on matchdays as well as being Safety Officer.

Yes it does look as though we are in the firing line for some rather extreme weather,

Kind Regards

Dave

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God almighty there are some right idiots in the mod thread. picking out the demise of the cold spell in early March and saying oh no its mild. For gods sake what do you expect icebergs . I won't name them but they really are a bit pathetic

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4 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

God almighty there are some right idiots in the mod thread. picking out the demise of the cold spell in early March and saying oh no its mild. For gods sake what do you expect icebergs . I won't name them but they really are a bit pathetic

Been seeing it all winter. From wrist slashing on one run to bactine on another.

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38 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

God almighty there are some right idiots in the mod thread. picking out the demise of the cold spell in early March and saying oh no its mild. For gods sake what do you expect icebergs . I won't name them but they really are a bit pathetic

I think a lot of people have been spoilt by the eye watering synoptics on the models from the coldies perspective, whilst forgetting we are likely to have an interesting cold spell on the cards, one which hasn't been seen for 5 years. I think a lot of us have been sucked into looking at the later frames even though the rule still holds that models are only reliable when four days away.

The BBC forecast is hinting that change is afoot, but being cautious at the same time, saying that cold might be coming, and if does it could last way into March. After all the Meto is privy to more data than we have, more so than relying simply on the latest run of the GFS as some had just done on the model thread,

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My doubts about this very cold spell happening ended tonight. I have been viewing recent charts behind the sofa at times, Dr Who style. I'll be buying a snow shovel tomorrow......some salt too not to look a fool.

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5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So we're starting to see the downgrades, worrying times for us all. 

I"m seeing no downgrades, only small variations of the same theme. In fact my gut feeling, and the models, are telling me we're entering a period of extremely cold weather that we could be talking about for many years to come.

Sit back and enjoy the ride!

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Just now, John88B said:

I"m seeing no downgrades, only small variations of the same theme. In fact my gut feeling, and the models, are telling me we'te entering a period of extremely cold weather that we'll be talking about for many years to come.

Well, I'm glad your that optimistic. Yet again the models are giving us a jam tomorrow run with the real cold and the snow potential delayed. We've gone from severe snow potential to very cold and a bit frosty. 

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4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Well, I'm glad your that optimistic. Yet again the models are giving us a jam tomorrow run with the real cold and the snow potential delayed. We've gone from severe snow potential to very cold and a bit frosty. 

Yes I'm optimistic. The latest met office update is incredible and all the models are pointing to a bitterly cold spell of weather. The ecm is just one run, and still not a bad one. As far as I can see, all the models offer something very wintery for all and possibly for a very extended period.

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19 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So we're starting to see the downgrades, worrying times for us all. 

Wouldn’t say that, I don’t think I can ever remember such model agreement on an easterly. There’ll be a few twists and turns, but it does look very likely to turn pretty chilly from the weekend. Snow amounts are less well defined, apart from that there will probably be some.

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I don't visit the MOD thread these days but I wouldn't mind betting Sidney's nuts to a -10C isotherm that one or two in there will be but a phone call away from a secure unit this morning,.:shok:

Edited by knocker
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I know there will still be lots of chopping and changing, but it strikes me as interesting the number of posters in the model thread telling us not to look beyond sunday, some of them in a fairly patronising way........if we are not to look beyond sunday, what exactly have we been getting so exited  about for the last two weeks?

 

oh I see, look beyond sunday when its an upgrade but only a naive amateur would pay attention to a downgrade, is that it?

Edited by chris78
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