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Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL

    I'm here in Derry, NW Ireland. We were earmarked to get some of the worst of the PM blast, with the models predicting plenty of snow showers, a lot of people were pushing it on here as "The most potent PM" or ramping it to an unnecessary degree.  What did we get? A bit of sleet and thats it as a low leveller.

    It is unfortunate really that a lot of people on the MAD thread can have the disposition to unnecessarily ramp and when things go rotten, others decide to depress the rest. Its childish really. Writing off runs when they aren't done, ignoring certain models and pushing others because it shows a favourable outcome. Too many times this winter have we had the same rampers quote the FI and treat it as gospel, the next day they are nowhere to be seen. Same for the depressants. Edit: Not too long ago when I think there was a slack easterly or something, and a run gave off something really well people started going into hysteria in the MAD thread. Its not giving you a good shape if you are a newcomer and don't know who to ignore and who to actually pay credence towards.

    Edited by parrotingfantasist
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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
    10 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

    have the wheels started to come off, that is why the champers were on ice

    I think even the Met Office went too soon, with the hype, and talk of the 'beast'

    The High from the North, sinks the Beast from the East

    12z - and here it is!

    66666654344444444444444.thumb.png.1bee5e339bd23d563fe06d6bf0793dbb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    22 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

    Knew it

     

     

    Ay, bbc might be onto something with cold and dry, certainly turns drier, less cold uppers anyway from the north on GFS 12Z, certainly no beast here

     

    gfs-0-222.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    19 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

    But it’s just so stupid how people get their hopes up multiple times every winter when it’s never that promising and then moan when it goes Pete Tong. People act as if the cautious people are causing warmer weather.

    Well yes, I must agree with you there. I think we can agree that extremes and dramatics in either direction can be a bit tiresome.

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    I think there is to much emphasis on snow.

    In reality I don't  think they will be much snow away from eastern areas. 

    It will be largely dry sunny but bitterly cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, sorepaw1 said:

    I think there is to much emphasis on snow.

    In reality I don't  think they will be much snow away from eastern areas. 

    It will be largely dry sunny but bitterly cold.

    certainly what GFS 12Z suggests, but 06Z was snowy, GEM is snowy

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Anyway, we're miles better placed than this time last year, getting ready for horrid storm Doris, vile weather day that

    archives-2017-2-23-12-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset

    Rumor has it that Ian Brown is incarcerated in  round  padded room without windows, wearing a straight jacket mumbling W.T F wTF  B:D

    Edited by 78/79
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    Posted
  • Location: Croxley
  • Location: Croxley
    5 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

    If you think some in the mod thread have entered ramp mode;

     
    Found while looking for met office twitter.

     

    A viewer tweeted in today, saying that he heard that 10 feet of snow was on the way; don't worry it isn't, but there could be a few light flurries in eastern coastal regions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Here comes the beast, 

    Cold at the least, 

    Whatever they say on the BBC, 

    It's best in the East...:oops::D:cold::yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    4 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

    I go on holiday next Monday.

    i want to cry.

    I'm off on Saturday to Austria.  Three checks of the 10 day weather in 24 hours have shown me no days with snow then 8 days with snow and the latest with just one day of snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    8 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    Or is it just some yeast :cc_confused:

    And I've just seen the Look East forecast, and there's nowt but "one or two wintry flurries" on Tuesday!:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
    10 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    I'm off on Saturday to Austria.  Three checks of the 10 day weather in 24 hours have shown me no days with snow then 8 days with snow and the latest with just one day of snow!

    I haven’t checked the snow real in Tenerife, but I imagine it is significantly worse still.:sorry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    54 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

    Rumor has it that Ian Brown is incarcerated in  round  padded room without windows, wearing a straight jacket mumbling W.T F wTF  B:D

    He's on Twitter.

    https://twitter.com/modernwinter?lang=en

    Top tweet is a retweeted ramp. :shok:

    Mostly it's anti-EU, pro-Corbyn mince though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

    It's been this way since the site started. It was like that on the old BBC Snow Watch forum too! It's why most people visit. The chase is sometimes just as good as the actual outcome! It would be rather boring if you just had one or two guys posting a weather forecast everyday wouldn't it?!

    You are so right - from a psychology point of view I reckon the winter models chase hits the same highs and lows in the brain  as gambling - particularly something like roulette where you can go on big wining and losing steaks with rapid changes of fortunes.  I should know - I do both!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    32 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

    He's on Twitter.

    https://twitter.com/modernwinter?lang=en

    Top tweet is a retweeted ramp. :shok:

    Mostly it's anti-EU, pro-Corbyn mince though.

    More scary is that he's got 77 followers :fool:. Presumably they are 'snowflakes' :rofl:

    Anyways, back on topic. Fabulous ECM this evening with much more snow in the offing. The GFS seemed to be one of the poorer options in its ensemble suite this evening so hopefully a more interesting pub run coming up.

    Looks like NE is first in the firing line on Sunday with a gradual ramping up of showers in the SE over the following 24 hours.

      

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    The last 'big' easterly [December 2010]:

    5a8c8a0e00cfe_0Confidence.thumb.gif.fadfdb1752c3b779c99f971c25454b33.gif

    If we lose this now...

    Edited by The Enforcer
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    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    6 hours ago, Number 23 said:

    Hello there - is the 'claret' a wine preference or a football one? Looks like we may be in the firing line, here but we'll see.

    Oh no, don't want to bring the carnage on here as well!

    Hello Number 23.

    The Claret is a football one- Chelmsford City. I am a steward on matchdays as well as being Safety Officer.

    Yes it does look as though we are in the firing line for some rather extreme weather,

    Kind Regards

    Dave

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
  • Location: Reigate Surrey

    God almighty there are some right idiots in the mod thread. picking out the demise of the cold spell in early March and saying oh no its mild. For gods sake what do you expect icebergs . I won't name them but they really are a bit pathetic

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    Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
    4 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

    God almighty there are some right idiots in the mod thread. picking out the demise of the cold spell in early March and saying oh no its mild. For gods sake what do you expect icebergs . I won't name them but they really are a bit pathetic

    Been seeing it all winter. From wrist slashing on one run to bactine on another.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex
    38 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

    God almighty there are some right idiots in the mod thread. picking out the demise of the cold spell in early March and saying oh no its mild. For gods sake what do you expect icebergs . I won't name them but they really are a bit pathetic

    I think a lot of people have been spoilt by the eye watering synoptics on the models from the coldies perspective, whilst forgetting we are likely to have an interesting cold spell on the cards, one which hasn't been seen for 5 years. I think a lot of us have been sucked into looking at the later frames even though the rule still holds that models are only reliable when four days away.

    The BBC forecast is hinting that change is afoot, but being cautious at the same time, saying that cold might be coming, and if does it could last way into March. After all the Meto is privy to more data than we have, more so than relying simply on the latest run of the GFS as some had just done on the model thread,

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