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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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And a lot of snow for many, is what I would infer from that.

The major forecasters can't use serious language re snow till it gets into more reliable time frames, for joe blogs. Otherwise panic.

 

if the big guns on here, are bouncing like super balls on speed? I'm happy.

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22 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather - Some places next week will struggle to reach freezing, with a little snow for some!

It looks like being mainly dry cold!

A little snow is code for severe blizzards and 20 foot drifts..next week looks incredible, will make up for all the mild filth coldies have endured!!:yahoo::D

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I get all the excitement and share it but.........it looks like an easterly is, but lets face it after these charts we dont just want an easterly we want epic!    Its still 6 days at least to the real cold, even with the model agreement would it not be unusual for the models to have picked up and stick with the correct solution 7 days out?  Espciially with the full effects of ssw still evolving? 

Also alot of people saying even a watered down version would be great, but would it, isnt one option the cold air all goes south and we get a standard easterly?

Like I said, im exited too, but is confidence getting a bit high this fr out?

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24 minutes ago, chris78 said:

I get all the excitement and share it but.........it looks like an easterly is, but lets face it after these charts we dont just want an easterly we want epic!    Its still 6 days at least to the real cold, even with the model agreement would it not be unusual for the models to have picked up and stick with the correct solution 7 days out?  Espciially with the full effects of ssw still evolving? 

Also alot of people saying even a watered down version would be great, but would it, isnt one option the cold air all goes south and we get a standard easterly?

Like I said, im exited too, but is confidence getting a bit high this fr out?

I think this is an exceptional synopsis for this stage of winter.

Obviously a result of the MSSW 

If it was 6th January I guess we would be looking at epic but I think the temperatures within the cold pool will be tempered slightly before reaching UK due to the time of year!   

But, if the models are correct it could still be spectacular for some parts of UK

Still quite a way to go though and there have been so many disappointments in the past, it's definitely nerve wracking right now!

I had a job sleeping last night!

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

Edited by snowblizzard

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11 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

 

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

Indeed, polar vortex for the uk..sounds good to me  👍👍👍:D:shok:

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I occasionally like to go on the express pages and point out what nonsense they're writing about deep cold, but on this occasion I think I'll pass. 

Still would wait until tomorrow pm to be absolutely confident but it seems to be inevitable now. 

Edited by Number 23

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4 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

I occasionally like to go on the express pages and point out what nonsense they're writing about deep cold, but on this occasion I think I'll pass. 

Still would wait until tomorrow pm to be absolutely confident but it seems to be inevitable now. 

To be fair one doesn't normally have to look that far afield

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For me not quite a Jan 87’ or Feb 91’ but nonetheless very close and potential is there. Looking better than late March 13’ because much earlier in the season + North Sea at optimum coldness. The downside being the increase in sun strength compared to mid Jan. So temps struggling to freezing whereas Jan 87’ below -5c. The most important question still remains, Will it snow?

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32 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

I think this is an exceptional synopsis for this stage of winter.

Obviously a result of the MSSW 

If it was 6th January I guess we would be looking at epic but I think the temperatures within the cold pool will be tempered slightly before reaching UK due to the time of year!   

But, if the models are correct it could still be spectacular for some parts of UK

Still quite a way to go though and there have been so many disappointments in the past, it's definitely nerve wracking right now!

I had a job sleeping last night!

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

Even better 6th Dec! convection will be limited away from the east, due to coldest seas, but GFS shows decent Wash streamer still, but won't be as good as 30th Nov-2 Dec 2010, as that was warm sea, troughs in the flow though would be good, 

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It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. :shok:

Edited by knocker

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You know somethings afoot when you see people who've spent years screaming "it's always FI" and "don't believe the hype" are in full on ramp mode.

It's seems odd to think there's millions of British people sat at home with no idea what's about to hit them, sitting prepping their spring garden, dusting off the motorbike, de-rusting the kids bikes and mowing their lawn.

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49 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, polar vortex for the uk..sounds good to me  👍👍👍:D:shok:

Surely this is too close to the reliable time frame for the Express to report on it, I expect Saturday's headline in the Express to be "Six months of heatwave and drought as hottest Summer ever arrives in the UK in April"

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5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You know somethings afoot when you see people who've spent years screaming "it's always FI" and "don't believe the hype" are in full on ramp mode.

It's seems odd to think there's millions of British people sat at home with no idea what's about to hit them, sitting prepping their spring garden, dusting off the motorbike, de-rusting the kids bikes and mowing their lawn.

Or you know we're not far off being able to power the whole of the UK with hydroelectric power generated by the tears of cold rampers. I'm not going to lie, this is the best spell of cold weather I've seen modeled at such a short range, but it could still go pete tong.

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14 minutes ago, knocker said:

It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. :shok:

Good luck with that..winter is coming!!:D:shok:

winteriscoming.jpg

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ECM is now showing -20C here next week (still a way off though). This week it's basically temperatures close to zero with frequent snow.

It's been a tame winter overall in Central Europe but it looks like it's going to go out with a bang.

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21 minutes ago, knocker said:

It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. :shok:

This is definitely the case. 

The Balkans onto the freezer on this run  

 

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I’m meant to be travelling to Yorkshire either Wednesday evening Thursday morning. Suffice to say I’ll be keeping a very close eye on this forum. 

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34 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Easterly?

No use to us up Noooorthwesterners.

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Saarth West forum meltdahn.

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I’m going to write to my MP, those in the Northwest DESERVE better!

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36 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Easterly?

No use to us up Noooorthwesterners.

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.cf2ff8646b60e89744e2da263765584d.png

Saarth West forum meltdahn.

3333333333333333333333.thumb.png.9a83f9ef7528dab4e8afa79b917b6f1a.png

Come on it's not just the snow that matters, we'll be freezing to death if these charts come off.

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As there's not much happening at the moment, I thought I'd mosey on over to the GloSea long ranger to see what the Spring/Summer prospects are like, and very pleasant they are too.

2cat_20180201_z500_months35_global_deter

2cat_20180201_z500_months46_global_deter

8)

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Is it too soon to warn my older relatives to get more logs ready? They live in a freezing cold house, and do not necessarily have enough supplies in all the time.

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3 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Is it too soon to warn my older relatives to get more logs ready? They live in a freezing cold house, and do not necessarily have enough supplies in all the time.

The elderly are most at risk from the cold, so it’d be a sensible precaution to get more logs in, in case it does get super cold :)

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5 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Is it too soon to warn my older relatives to get more logs ready? They live in a freezing cold house, and do not necessarily have enough supplies in all the time.

They should always have enough logs in for a few weeks anyway. The fact people need to be told to prep for bad weather is ridiculous, if you don't live within striking distance of a town centre you should be prepared for the worst. Even in summer it can get too hot to go gallivanting for supplies.

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