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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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2 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Just seen meto 10 day. No mention of severe cold in UK, just colder. Looks like the cold severe weather will go down into Greece, Africa. Almost March....

To be fair, March is about 20 miles southwest of me so I would still be in the severe cold zone.

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23 minutes ago, Rammie said:

Well there's charts being posted which show 1cm of snow. Would you need a plough for that? :)

4.5 acres x 1cm ... Yeah probably :) 

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Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Surprise, surprise the BBC are having none of it! 😳

B82C9676-9168-4FEC-AD09-842FC18B5458.jpeg

Seriously? Who the holy mother of cows is their new provider?

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Ok, I've been trying to remain circumspect about this upcoming event, but it's now getting close to the reliable timeframe and this is shaping up to potentially be the most potent easterly since February 1991 and I find myself getting caught up in the ramping.

 

It's been a mantra on Netweather since I joined waaaay back in 2005 but we just need another couple of runs to feel more secure in this. ECM is being stubborn, and until we have cross-model agreement it's going to be a nervy wait until it's really on the doorstep.

 

I told my brother today that a "significant cold snap" was coming.....apologies if I've gone and jinxed it.

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2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Surprise, surprise the BBC are having none of it! 😳

B82C9676-9168-4FEC-AD09-842FC18B5458.jpeg

Could just be a reverse psychology thing!

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9 hours ago, Shunter said:

And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.

and now according to 12z GFS Op the SE gets a 3 day Freeze followed by a mudfest as warm air pushes north from the SW. 

 

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3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Rain next Wednesday here, apparently :closedeyes:

7A1AAB57-130B-4EDF-80A9-88EE8405A9BE.png

I think that forecast has been written by a three year old.

It wont be raining for you mate ..

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21 minutes ago, MarkM said:

4.5 acres x 1cm ... Yeah probably :) 

18.211e+7cubic centimetres :rofl: :oops:

Edited by Mokidugway

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Deep FI, but vintage chart! used to happen all the time when I was a bairn 90's, snowy lows pushing up from the south, gale force E winds, sometimes turned to rain, sometimes didn't

very rare snowfests nowadays like this! need a good EC today, need everything north

h850t850eu.png

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9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s looking very marginal 🤪

Snow or sanity?!!

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5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s like it pains the BBC/weather apps to go with more realistically colder temperatures. 🙄

They're crap! will be saying 8° in a true beast

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Blimey...

If that ECM run comes off it's going to evoke memories of '91. 

Still skeptical until we see this at +72, but surely a 75% chance of something severe emerging now.

Imagine the fallout if it goes wrong... 

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I hear people screaming 'winter wonderland' and stuff, well, i'll get interested when this stuff is t+96 or less

The problem is, it soon won't be winter anymore, yeah, there is a chance for this winter to go out with a bang

My Champer's remains on ice for now

Hopefully, by this time next week.. the Champer's won't need the fridge !!

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The ECM 12z! Jesus Christ! If that verifies Sydney will have a heart attack!

Still the usual caveats apply when viewing the MAD thread:

 

 

ramp ahead sign-500x500.jpgtenor.gif?itemid=3557422

Edited by Ice Man 85
more to add

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6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

 

Still the usual caveats apply when viewing the MAD thread:

 

 

 

Yea, I actually can no longer read that thread, as realism has given into mass hysteria on an epic scale. I’m not a doctor, but there’s something wrong with them. 

Edited by draztik

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Just now, draztik said:

Yea, I actually can no longer read that thread, as realism has given into mass hysteria on an epic scale. I’m not a doctor, but there’s something wrong with them. 

Welcome back, friend! Not sure what to make of it myself. Been on the fence so long I've got splinters in my backside!

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Have to admit, that run was unreal. Probably literally. 

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Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

PWelcome back, friend! Not sure what to make of it myself. Been on the fence so long I've got splinters in my backside!

It’s quite apparent it going to turn much colder than what we have right now ... but these charts are not within the realiable yet we have folk behaving as though ice rainbows and apocalyptic snow drifts will descend on the UK!

good to see you posting, I can always rely on you to keep it real. 

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2 minutes ago, draztik said:

It’s quite apparent it going to turn much colder than what we have right now ... but these charts are not within the realiable yet we have folk behaving as though ice rainbows and apocalyptic snow drifts will descend on the UK!

good to see you posting, I can always rely on you to keep it real. 

just so many flip flops between runs. ECM is (if you'll excuse the pun) the polar opposite of this mornings run which (from what I could see) showed barely any cold uppers at all right through. Going from that to -16's is a bit extreme!

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30 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

The ECM 12z! Jesus Christ! If that verifies Sydney will have a heart attack!

Still the usual caveats apply when viewing the MAD thread:

 

 

ramp ahead sign-500x500.jpgtenor.gif?itemid=3557422

I have also stopped reading the other thread but just been having a closer look at the upper air profiles of the gfs and ecm and they start deviating quite early. Be interesting to compare the anomalies this evening.

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