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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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People now calling this unprecented when it is still 10 days out

#facepalm

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I’ve been a member of the cold club for most of my life but I feel like one of those unfortunate football supporters who is passionate about his team but his designated seat is next to a bunch of  biased loudmouth drunks who shout everyone else down to get their POV acrosss. 😕

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Right! someone just asked me what will weather next week be like in Torquay? I said beast from the east with snow! probably go tits up now for northern half of the uk

confident though of beast/snow in Torquay, looks well placed, even with a crappy ECM

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17 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

People now calling this unprecented when it is still 10 days out

#facepalm

Yup that comment took me a bit sideways. I'd love to see 10ft of level snow at sea level, icicles the size of cars and sub zero temperatures for days on end, However to predict that sort of thing at this point is a bit bonkers. There's good signals that we will start to feel the chill from Day 6 which is a good sign, but it could all still go mega tits up and be cold rain. 

What worries me more is people getting confident enough to tell other people, this is usually a sign of a tits up zonal run coming. 

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58 minutes ago, knocker said:

Feel free to expand on that and point out where my recent posts, or indeed all of my posts, in the short range model thread are biased. After all that is the only way those of us who take the time to post can improve out contribution in a constructive manner.

Well true you're no more biased than anyone else but it was the inference on the previous comment that somewhow you're less biased than others.

Obviously you can't really have bias in the short term model analysis

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3 hours ago, sawan said:

No body is surplus Knocks. It's such a shame that a few so called weather experts are bullies. A few years ago when I joined NW forum, it used be a much better place with no concept of using aggressive/abusive language. I know it's a lot of work but Moderators should filter and ban such people from posting. Please continue the great work there are still many who admire your skills and inputs :hi:

I think he's perfect where he is in the short term model output personally, where the good work is being kept up imo - realistic time frame weather with our very own presenter, I'll take that. :)

Not jumping on the cold bandwagon = biased :D

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13 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Well true you're no more biased than anyone else but it was the inference on the previous comment that somewhow you're less biased than others.

Obviously you can't really have bias in the short term model analysis

Not that I'm bothered in the slightest but if you not taking into account my posts in the short mod. thread, where it's quite easy to be biased, then, as the post you quoted was referring to interpretation of the models, you must be talking about when I used to post in the main mod thread. So if I'm on the same level of bias as the majority who post in  there then I'll need to take a serous look at what I'm posting.

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1 hour ago, Danielvn said:

I made the mistake of posting in the model thread. Stupid me...

to be fair, i think the replies to your comment were civil and constructive. bearing in mind you mentioned people having "agendas" and "ignoring" the ECM. (which could have been construed by some as inflammatory). 

you are entitled to have a differing opinion and discuss it in the mod thread. yes there are some posters who will jump on you and try to be derogatory but that didnt happen to you this morning.

Edited by bobbydog

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Right guys, i've mentioned to my friends that we could be in for some colder/inclement weather, so expect an early taste of spring next week.

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40 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Yup that comment took me a bit sideways. I'd love to see 10ft of level snow at sea level, icicles the size of cars and sub zero temperatures for days on end, However to predict that sort of thing at this point is a bit bonkers. There's good signals that we will start to feel the chill from Day 6 which is a good sign, but it could all still go mega tits up and be cold rain. 

What worries me more is people getting confident enough to tell other people, this is usually a sign of a tits up zonal run coming. 

Yep, have family who have moved from London to the middle of nowhere on Eastern aspect of Dartmoor.  I'm trying to work out how to nudge them towards the wise buying/stocking of essentials as simple cold/ice will make travel problematic for them without mentioning the S word and putting us into mild SW's!

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13 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not that I'm bothered in the slightest but if you not taking into account my posts in the short mod. thread, where it's quite easy to be biased, then, as the post you quoted was referring to interpretation of the models, you must be talking about when I used to post in the main mod thread. So if I'm on the same level of bias as the majority who post in  there then I'll need to take a serous look at what I'm posting.

Thats the spirit  - will leave it there then...

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12 minutes ago, swebby said:

Yep, have family who have moved from London to the middle of nowhere on Eastern aspect of Dartmoor.  I'm trying to work out how to nudge them towards the wise buying/stocking of essentials as simple cold/ice will make travel problematic for them without mentioning the S word and putting us into mild SW's!

You don't. By the time it matters it'll be front page news. And if they can't be arsed to listen to that then that's there issue.

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5 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Just seen meto 10 day. No mention of severe cold in UK, just colder. Looks like the cold severe weather will go down into Greece, Africa. Almost March....

like EC then, nervy 12Z's coming up, will GFS trend towards EC? cannot see it the other way somehow

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11 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Just seen meto 10 day. No mention of severe cold in UK, just colder. Looks like the cold severe weather will go down into Greece, Africa. Almost March....

Do-us a 'favour' tony.

Wack a link or some evidence up for that pal.

As all met-o, noise via 10-16dayer.. is well off course for how you have stated!!!

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Do-us a 'favour' tony.

Wack a link or some evidence up for that pal.

As all met-o, noise via 10-16dayer.. is well off course for how you have stated!!!

 

CD940EFF-648E-4844-A9F1-AA000F135D48.png

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1 minute ago, Danielvn said:

 

CD940EFF-648E-4844-A9F1-AA000F135D48.png

Exactly- as it reads..

Some love the wind-up....

So goes completely against what tonyin hampshire alludes to.

Ta-for putting that up although obviously i already knew that...

That being my reason for requesting evidence to the former...

Met solidly on board.....

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30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Do-us a 'favour' tony.

Wack a link or some evidence up for that pal.

As all met-o, noise via 10-16dayer.. is well off course for how you have stated!!!

it would just be our luck (again) that Greece and Africa get the bitter cold and snow.  You couldn't make this up if we tried.  We must be the unluckiest country in the world for cold and snow when even Greece and Africa get it and we don't.

 

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16 minutes ago, snow freak said:

it would just be our luck (again) that Greece and Africa get the bitter cold and snow.  You couldn't make this up if we tried.  We must be the unluckiest country in the world for cold and snow when even Greece and Africa get it and we don't.

 

But he literally did make it up...

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Not that I'm bothered in the slightest but if you not taking into account my posts in the short mod. thread, where it's quite easy to be biased, then, as the post you quoted was referring to interpretation of the models, you must be talking about when I used to post in the main mod thread. So if I'm on the same level of bias as the majority who post in  there then I'll need to take a serous look at what I'm posting.

We've had our differences  of opinion over in the serious discussion thread Knocker , but  I also think that  your analysis is one  of the voices of reason among st all of the madness. It's like Christians being thrown to the Lions in that model thread if anyone  dares voice an alternative  point of view.

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At what stage should we be letting friends/family know about this upcoming cold spell, we have elderly parents and a very poorly baby in the family who is in special care 30 miles from home and being visited daily, if this comes off surely transport will be hindered, don't want to worry people unnecessarily but .....

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1 minute ago, Isabellesnanny said:

At what stage should we be letting friends/family know about this upcoming cold spell, we have elderly parents and a very poorly baby in the family who is in special care 30 miles from home and being visited daily, if this comes off surely transport will be hindered, don't want to worry people unnecessarily but .....

Old Netweather suspicion is basically at T+0 but realistically when there's a clear danger for them. This will be a lot earlier than an elderly relative who's just come back from her sunny Spain winter expecting mild weather than a mid-20s relative who works away in Iceland. I'd let the parents of that baby now today if I were you so they can put a bit aside for taxi's/fuel next week if the buses are cancelled - initially snow wise there doesn't seem to much more danger than that yet

I'd say you should be making friends and family aware of met office weather warnings as they come out, or met office take note press statements as they come out. So the outlook for cold and snow should be raised now, with any wind/snow warnings raised at the back end of the week. With T+96 now lining up to open the easterly floodgates were tantalisingly close.

For everyone else, I'd drop hints about it getting holder "you might want to use the heating at bit less, or you're bill will be enormous by the end of the month"

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I'm a Cricket Groundsman in North Lincs and I'm 7-8 days away from wanting to start pre-season rolling as well as chain harrowing and then cutting the outfield , in total I've got about 4.5 acres to do , Is it too late to order a snowplough attachment for my tractor ?    :) 

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Please please please ECM dont carry on torturing us all!!

UKMO /GFS /GEM/ICON all look marvellous (and yes i feel ukmo would go on to produce the goodies 24 hours after 144).

The model world unites against ECM, now stop being a blinkin scrooge!!

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22 minutes ago, MarkM said:

I'm a Cricket Groundsman in North Lincs and I'm 7-8 days away from wanting to start pre-season rolling as well as chain harrowing and then cutting the outfield , in total I've got about 4.5 acres to do , Is it too late to order a snowplough attachment for my tractor ?    :) 

Well there's charts being posted which show 1cm of snow. Would you need a plough for that? :)

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