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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I wouldn’t bother looking at the model output into March yet the irony of this post.. P1 March comes in with roar.

398B3577-8F61-405D-B97B-0FEB04BBD096.thumb.jpeg.10b6d3c0d56ec7e421e74f5bbcf73547.jpeg4BB2DC7B-29E8-4EFC-835F-40D3EC92B936.thumb.jpeg.870684365da0ed0c2375e29a8b93a5d8.jpeg

once this beast is out the way and hopefully we snow starved southerners get enough snow to quench our thirst. I do not see a resumption of normal service, for those in northern Britain the second or third phase could be the most wintriest as we enter March. Retrogression to Greenland with the floodgates opening from the north this could be a very long cold spell, that I see will swallow up much of March.

Please, no! That image of the UK haunts me badly. I was in one of a few places that is completely green from no snow.

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Please, no! That image of the UK haunts me badly. I was in one of a few places that is completely green from no snow.

I think you’ll likely join in! I don’t think the uppers were dramatically cold back then.

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Ec still not playing ball for snow potential away from the SE..

Most of Europe buried on that run apart from... :-(

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec still not playing ball for snow potential away from the SE..

Most of Europe buried on that run apart from... :-(

ECMs has had a poor winter though with regards the U.K. and cold spells. We also know it tends to drag it’s heels in terms of correcting to the right route, so wouldn’t be too concerned at this stage, given other key models disagree in terms of how quick the cold comes in and where the deep cold goes.

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Plenty of time for correction Nortwards,the ECM has performed pretty badly for our region of the Northern Hempishere this winter for some reason .gfs and rest of the models look much better

 

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2 EC op's now where the beast is missing us, hmm, makes you wonder, will this beast arrive? have my doubts, still yet to have a true beast in the modern eraa, 2000+

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15 hours ago, Shunter said:

and quite right too..........BBC Snowwatch euphoria rules in the MOD thread  ( Snowmageddon, etc etc ) .....however look on GFS 12z OP and you see a 4-5 day Cold spell with snow showers mostly in the East followed by gradual thaw as Snow-Rain as LP with associated warm core arrives from SE.  

Remember 3 days ago we had snow flurries arriving in SE this Tuesday....this has now moved back to Friday/Saturday.

 

And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.

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Some variations on the general theme emerging now. Would have been very surprised to see those extreme solutions across the board just slot into the reliable without some output which delays or tempers the depth or timing for the uk.

I expect more of the same for at least the next few days. It was never going to get much more extreme from where it was, which all told is perhaps a good thing! 

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I just get the feeling that BBC Weather Presenters are beginning to back away slightly from very cold coming in next week!

Although, I don't think they were ever giving the impression that it will be a notable nationwide spell of very cold and wintry weather.

I know they often sit on the fence until they are absolutely sure that a weather event is almost certainly going to happen.

But, the lack of enthusiasm and use of words like 'there's a chance' or 'there's potential' and 'especially the Southern half of the country' are rather worrying.

Let's hope the pattern comes together in our favour but I'm even more concerned after reading the Nick Sussex post (Model Thread) about the effects of the second SSW!  :wallbash:

 

Edited by snowblizzard

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The ecm at the end of the run is a thing of beauty as it retrogresses the high cell thus backing the wind and thus driving the cold air south. But it's essential that the trough is not allowed to far west so as to keep the inclement weather at arms length.

gph500_anom_240.jpg?2018021900

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13 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm at the end of the run is a thing of beauty as it retrogresses the high cell thus backing the wind and thus driving the cold air south. But it's essential that the trough is not allowed to far west so as to keep the inclement weather at arms length.

gph500_anom_240.jpg?2018021900

Hi Knocker, two questions please; 

1. You don't post in the MOD thread anymore, used to like your unbiased interpretation from the charts

2. What is your take on the current developments. My take is that the current synoptic favour EC rather than GFS

Thanks

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3 minutes ago, sawan said:

Hi Knocker, two questions please; 

1. You don't post in the MOD thread anymore, used to like your unbiased interpretation from the charts

2. What is your take on the current developments. My take is that the current synoptic favour EC rather than GFS

Thanks

Hi Sawan

I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

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6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hi Sawan

I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

No body is surplus Knocks. It's such a shame that a few so called weather experts are bullies. A few years ago when I joined NW forum, it used be a much better place with no concept of using aggressive/abusive language. I know it's a lot of work but Moderators should filter and ban such people from posting. Please continue the great work there are still many who admire your skills and inputs :hi:

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12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hi Sawan

I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

Imho you’re certainly not surplus to requirements. You’re the voice of reason and refrain from getting carried away like the model thread people who are just after likes.

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hi Sawan

I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

A sound meteorological reason would be that the ECM is the best-verifying model over time, of course. But day-to-day verification is much more volatile so who knows? The much-maligned CFS beat it yesterday, for example :D

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

I shudder at the thought of the anger and recrimination should it all go wrong.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, sawan said:

No body is surplus Knocks. It's such a shame that a few so called weather experts are bullies. A few years ago when I joined NW forum, it used be a much better place with no concept of using aggressive/abusive language. I know it's a lot of work but Moderators should filter and ban such people from posting. Please continue the great work there are still many who admire your skills and inputs :hi:

Yes to all of this, but even more important is the quality of the posts, there are several on the Mod thread that post inane waffle that clutter the thread up to the extent it is almost useless. Quality over quantity. 

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Looking at the Strat  Forum-  A White Easter on the Cards??

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2 hours ago, sawan said:

Hi Knocker, two questions please; 

1. You don't post in the MOD thread anymore, used to like your unbiased interpretation from the charts

2. What is your take on the current developments. My take is that the current synoptic favour EC rather than GFS

Thanks

Unbaised ? haha a classic

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1 minute ago, cobbett said:

Unbaised ? haha a classic

Feel free to expand on that and point out where my recent posts, or indeed all of my posts, in the short range model thread are biased. After all that is the only way those of us who take the time to post can improve out contribution in a constructive manner.

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9 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Unbaised ? haha a classic

This is exactly what I meant from my above post, ban the 'one liner' nasty commentators. Before commenting on others please evaluate your contribution to the thread.

I am sorry Knocker, I shouldn't have asked you this in the first instance :sorry: 

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I’m shocked that meto update will bring South East England to a stand still..:cold::cold::cold:

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Hey where's our Vortex gone!

image.thumb.png.13e62c2dcc469ca176853ece27cca1e2.pngimage.thumb.png.b952ea2d39cd38b4124f8bb69cccf68e.png

image.thumb.png.d632ef7fe37da0ac7bd5f9c81428b593.png

Great NH chart...:D

 

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23 minutes ago, sawan said:

This is exactly what I meant from my above post, ban the 'one liner' nasty commentators. Before commenting on others please evaluate your contribution to the thread.

I am sorry Knocker, I shouldn't have asked you this in the first instance :sorry: 

Not to worry as I find it rather amusing. Apart from the fact that being accused of bias in this forum raises the irony bar to unheard of heights it contradicts previous accusations of not being biased (refusing to accept that a cold bias in the mod thread was part of the ethos of the thread). I assume this is called Schrodinger's bias.

Edited by knocker

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