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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Shannon entropy reaches new heights this morning.

    Its all about t96- and i have to be honest here, EC has a terrible habit of overdoing the amplification - 

    massive 12zs coming up, whoever said easterlies are never easy topredict wasn't joking.

    Im not bothered about GFS - its a cannon fodder model, UKMO this morning tho has sided with GFS which makes EC UNLIKELY , imho.

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    3 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Nightmare scenario at the end of the ecm with max temps in the SE of -2C and a strong south easterly wind. :shok:

    But will it happen not much surport this morning for that outcome.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, booferking said:

    But will it happen not much surport this morning for that outcome.

    I'd say around 10% if that, eps will reveal more..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS flatly refusing to buckle.

    Its not fair being a coldie in this country, its like the mother of all battles trying to get east winds in- record SSW and still the vortex refuses to leave the stage.

    :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Not sure if anyone's mentioned this, but the model output is quite volatile at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    GFS flatly refusing to buckle.

    Its not fair being a coldie in this country, its like the mother of all battles trying to get east winds in- record SSW and still the vortex refuses to leave the stage.

    :nonono:

    Patience Grasshopper!

    But, we all know how you are feeling!

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Looking at Meto app for next Thursday in the south wind direction clearly showing they expect height rises to the north east not a dropping or uk high. Daytime max of 4oC winds turning ese from ene indicate hights to north east. Clearly Meto think it's still game on.

    Edited by Rapodo
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    TBH i wouldnt mind GFS6Z if we are not going to get the easterly- it will be quite warm with light winds from the south !

    temps 13/14 across much of England and wales ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
    On 07/02/2018 at 08:13, northwestsnow said:

    With the SSW there is a chance that there could be a mild result for the uk and a southerly   airflow GFS may well be handling it very well .

    I aren't sure of any timescale you'd put on it .

    If ECM charts backtrack then this potential Easterly could well be dead and buried. 

    But at what point do you write it off.

    If it is to be written off.

    I personally would like to see a good Easterly but I'm not convinced it will pull off.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    Getting fed up with this model drama lately. Each day we come on here hoping for a clear way forward with cross model agreement on a cold spell only to find we're still dordling at the crossroads. Has there ever been a point where it's been this bad? Whatever happens though this drama has put a big dent in all the models reliability and just goes to show we've got a long way to go for consistently reliable weather forecasting beyond 3 to 5 days, unless it's the default pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    This popular movie scene was in my mind this morning for some reason... but what's the punchline?

    Image result for dumb and dumber gif just when i thought

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole Dorset
  • Location: Poole Dorset
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    GFS flatly refusing to buckle.

    Its not fair being a coldie in this country, its like the mother of all battles trying to get east winds in- record SSW and still the vortex refuses to leave the stage.

    :nonono:

    GFS is only bad from a coldies view point 

    Being a snow lover and not seeing a single snow flake yet again for another winter and not wanting to be led up the garden path anymore GFS ops suggesting 15 degrees plus by day 10 look good to me now so bring it on I say.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
    31 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    jeeezzz 

    why people put faith into anything beyond t96 

    baffles me tbh 

     

    Because it says what they want to hear.

     

    i sometimes wonder whether these people like having cold and snowy weather or cold and snowy model output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    It's like a pantomime with all the unexpected twists and turns an laughable delivery of Synoptics... You never know if the baddie (mild poor for cold) will appear one minute only to be scuppered by an appearance of bright multicoloured knickers (easterly) the next second - oh look, a crocus ⏰

    Edited by snowfish1
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    well after much consideration i'm of the opinion-

    a the meto update will remain the same today

    b the ecm will back down this evening.

    c so will Exeter tomorrow

    Only my opinion, kind of hope i'm wrong altho im still indifferent.

    edit Aprege has edged the pattern east at 72 on 6z, not a huge amount but enough to raise doubts over EC.

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Just as a matter of interest the difference between the GEFS  and EPS mean anomalies this morning are stark  High cells over Franz Joseph and Lerwick will do for starters and the development of the European low with the EPS, which is crucial to the later evolution, is something the det. run started in the 72-120 period. Place your bets

    eps_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.04f257ad7af84eaedf5cbf11bf5b6db7.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.8889504b6737d6aa7450e3aa2d044b2f.png

    .

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    well after much consideration i'm of the opinion-

    a the meto update will remain the same today

    b the ecm will back down this evening.

    c so will Exeter tomorrow

    Only my opinion, kind of hope i'm wrong altho im still indifferent.

    edit Aprege has edged the pattern east at 72 on 6z, not a huge amount but enough to raise doubts over EC.

    Well thats a chalked off and correct.

    Now b+c and i can apply for a 100k a year contract  :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well thats a chalked off and correct.

    Now b+c and i can apply for a 100k a year contract  :D

    Well the met won't be backing down today . Another nice update again ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Well the met won't be backing down today . Another nice update again ???

    What's behind their high confidence about this eventual Easterly?

    Major egg on face if they have got this wrong!

    But, it wouldn't be the first time.

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    What's behind their high confidence about this eventual Easterly?

    Major egg on face if they have got this wrong!

    But, it wouldn't be the first time.

    Soz i stickey noted u by accident ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
    2 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    jeeezzz 

    why people put faith into anything beyond t96 

    baffles me tbh 

     

    Just to be a kn*bhead for a moment, I'm often tempted to copy and paste the before and after posts of the serial posters on here who emotionally cling to every single run, change their opinion every 6 hours and get upset over output that is over 10 days away that will never ever verify good or bad.  When will people learn to accept the models are not designed to predict the weather, they are designed to produce possibilities based on a billion interacting variables that are immediately incorrect from the second they are released. 

    On a different topic I "feel" like we've had the coldest winter since 2010 in my part of the world.  We've had more frost and snowfalls than I can remember and if this easterly does by chance spring into life I'll be clocking the winter of 17/18 in the back of the old skull as one of the best in my memory.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon-ish
  • Location: Croydon-ish

    Hope ok to post this in this thread. I am one of the few people on NW  who doesn't like snow, mainly due to illness and elderly parents who become housebound when there is snowy /icy weather. Although this period of weather is incredibly interesting I am finding the forecast of significant snow quite worrying - obviously it is very difficult to forecast even when/ if this cold spell will be as cold as thought but at what stage would snowfall he described as significant ?- not to be a party pooper, realise that most here like the cold/snow but it does have it's disadvantages to certain people.

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