Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

Recommended Posts

The problem, as I see it, is not the accuracy of the models but people taking output at day 10 as gospel. It's called 'FI' for a reason - charts at that range almost never verify. Yet 90 per cent of the analysis on the MOD thread is of charts at extended range. No wonder people feel let down when the output changes. If people stuck to analysing charts within the 5-day timeframe there would be a lot less disappointment.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It hasn't been the best Winter either here in Derry/Londonderry in the north west so far. We got only one snow lying day in the whole of 2018, and that December cold spell was basically frozen hail. NW airstreams generally only deal with higher altitudes. Hey, its the first lying snow for 3 years so its not the worst.

 

This winter has been incredibly cruel, dangling a carrot then pulling it away. I feel for you coldies in the south as these easterlies are really your only chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

It hasn't been the best Winter either here in Derry/Londonderry in the north west so far. We got only one snow lying day in the whole of 2018, and that December cold spell was basically frozen hail. NW airstreams generally only deal with higher altitudes. Hey, its the first lying snow for 3 years so its not the worst.

 

This winter has been incredibly cruel, dangling a carrot then pulling it away. I feel for you coldies in the south as these easterlies are really your only chance.

You're on the coast though aren't you? I'm inland low elevation and had most snow since 2010 this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't understand folk writing off winter yet ,personally I'm not bothered about snow  and would like an early spring ,but theres still a chance albeit desperately slim for a snow event .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

The problem, as I see it, is not the accuracy of the models but people taking output at day 10 as gospel. It's called 'FI' for a reason - charts at that range almost never verify. Yet 90 per cent of the analysis on the MOD thread is of charts at extended range. No wonder people feel let down when the output changes. If people stuck to analysing charts within the 5-day timeframe there would be a lot less disappointment.

I sort of agree. But now you've got a UKMO inside 5 days that has flipped on its next run! Go figure 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

You're on the coast though aren't you? I'm inland low elevation and had most snow since 2010 this year. 

Nope, just 25 or so meters of elevation inland. We just get unlucky with the showers, and when we do they can just be sleet or hail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we don’t get anything snow related within the next two to three weeks, then roll on spring! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Why do people just make a judgement on the Ops GO and look at the ENS

GFS again has some cracking runs in there, it does seem the end of the month and the start of March is the time to watch

The problem I have is stage 1 has failed. The shortwave hasn't dropped South and thus, the high just kind of sits over the UK not really doing much. We're now back to square 1 again with looking out into deep FI hoping something materialises for us. 

Meanwhile, the days are ticking on and we're getting further away from the coldest part of the year. The longer we wait, the better the synoptics have to be to deliver. Everyone is getting fed up of chasing phantom Easterlies, it feels like that's all we've really been doing this winter. The models have been absolutely abysmal this year, worse than previous years it feels. 

Edited by Daniel Smith
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, danm said:

If we don’t get anything snow related within the next two to three weeks, then roll on spring! 

Could not agree more want extreme s now either 15c and sunny or heavy snow and very cold. No 3c and heavy cold rain.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty bored of this Winter now to be honest and just want it to be Spring. Just end up wasting lots of time chasing Easterlies and cold snowy spells in the Models (including to being addicted to reading all the posts in the main Model and Winter threads) that it distracts me from other stuff I want to tackle - such as going for walk, going to the gym, meeting people, playing video games. And even just monitoring what the weather is actually doing outside! Model output watching/monitoring becomes so draining after a while.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets al cheer for the ECM it had this nailed 10 days ago it makes you wonder whats the point of al these other models which still couldnt work this out at 6 days what a waste of time and money pointless

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I said the other day these models are a joke tbh we waste so much time chasing the cold that pretty much always gets put back and the minute you post anything like this you get shot down but the reality is just that. It’s always at least 7 days away or if the cold makes it to under 5 days it gradually gets watered down. Sorry for moaning but we never learn. Just wait for the stonking runs that start from the 28th or so!!

anyway I’m sure I’ll be checking in here again later as I’m stupid

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office seem very confident colder temperatures end of next week and could we have flip with the models or is to late now ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably have my post removed from the model thred as iv moaned again. Bloody flip flop crappy models 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tell Steve Murr not to jump over board! 

 

ECM saves the day:D

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC weather just further hinted of cold coming next week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the ECM is now everyone's darling model? Until the next run anyhow ........... :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Met Office seem very confident colder temperatures end of next week and could we have flip with the models or is to late now ..

BBC news just said cold coming next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Probably have my post removed from the model thred as iv moaned again. Bloody flip flop crappy models 

Mine was just deleted and didn't appear in here there are plenty of other posts along the same lines in the model thread which have definitely been "overlooked" by the Moderators I think they pick and choose who to delete. It always seems to be that Paul Sherwood bloke

Edited by snowfish1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...