Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Number 23]

I'd get your drinks in now if I were you, think it's going to get busy in here shortly...

[booferking]

LOL Wheels are completely off the phantom is gone

[daz_4]

GFS downgrading to hell and beyond.

4 days ago 

Now

Does anyone still believe that models will magically flip to cold?

[Light Without Heat]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Hi LWH

Click the 'Accuracy' tab just below the forecast days here

 

Thanks mate - dead handy that

[northwestsnow]

yup.

As expected, bye bye easterly.

Think Exeter really need to be more cautious with their LRFs, the change in text is going to be subtle over the coming days but im afraid its going to change.

[Danielvn]

On ‎14‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 14:27, Mike Poole said:

The models will take it in their stride.  

It's common misconception that I've noticed on here - that the models are somehow programmed with an envelope of expected evolutions and struggle with extreme evolutions outside of it.

They don't work like that.  

They simply take the best guess of the state of the atmosphere at the start of the run (T0) and then simulate their best approximation to all the laws of physics that affect the atmosphere (or atmosphere and oceans in the case of the seasonal ones e.g. CFS) for the length of the run.  So the fact that the world is warmer than it used to be is irrelevant.

No no no, doesn't work like that. X model always struggles with Y conditions therefore it'll be cold and snowy, not 20 degrees and rainy as the models are suggesting.

[northwestsnow]

Exeters LRF producer right now...

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeters LRF producer right now...

he will still get his 5 k monthly wage lol

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Exeter facing egg on their faces if the current trend persists overnight into tomorrow ?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

he will still get his 5 k monthly wage lol

OOOOOO dont get me started on their wages lol.

It never seizes to amaze me how even Exteter underestimate the Atlantic and all its energy - ive said it before and i will say it again, the Atlantic is warmer now than it was 30-40 years ago and by proxy has more strength.

Think we all need to wise up to the TMW theory, i might not like it , but theres a lot of truvk in it.

Basically HLB in our locale is becoming as rare as hens teeth- and again by proxy so are scandy/greeny highs!!

[JoeShmoe]

Winter is over 

#thereisaidit

roll on spring !

[nick sussex]

Looks like we might have to throw the towel in on any decent cold spell to end winter.

The UKMO couldn’t even verify at T96 hrs this morning and the GFS brings back a rampant PV in by day 8.

Even by some of the easterly debacles this one given the biggest zonal reversal in history re the strat looks like currently delivering zip.

Although the models have been very jumpy they now seemed to have jumped onto the worst solution.

Barring some miracle on the ECM it looks like the end of the road for this winter.

[sausage]

what a joke all this ssw has been. the models just refuse to give us any belting cold weather with much snow. winter running out fast now. feel totally deflated!! gosh folks must have been lucky in the past to see such big snow events! i really thought this was going to be something special!!

[Timmytour]

going skiing for the first time in decades on saturday week to Austria.  Took the plunge today and bought some long johns and bodywarmer shirts in anticipation of facing soome brutal cold out there.

Wished I'd waited for the UKMO and GFS 12z runs....could have reigned back quite a bit on the spending I reckon! 
 

Wasn't expecting the cold to be held back from so much of Europe tbh but if the GFS is on the mark I'll be needing to stock up on suncream and worried about the risk of avalanches

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like we might have to throw the towel in on any decent cold spell to end winter.

The UKMO couldn’t even verify at T96 hrs this morning and the GFS brings back a rampant PV in by day 8.

Even by some of the easterly debacles this one given the biggest zonal reversal in history re the strat looks like currently delivering zip.

Although the models have been very jumpy they now seemed to have jumped onto the worst solution.

Barring some miracle on the ECM it looks like the end of the road for this winter.

I suspect we’ll still get something, via the longer route.

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

So this is really confirmation that the quick route to an easterly is a fail. 

Now looking at the back end of next weekend and into the following week for another roll of the dice 

 

Not sure many can be bothered now.

Given any decent synoptics managed to implode at just T96 hrs.

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sausage said:

what a joke all this ssw has been. the models just refuse to give us any belting cold weather with much snow. winter running out fast now. feel totally deflated!! gosh folks must have been lucky in the past to see such big snow events! i really thought this was going to be something special!!

yes.

I posted above sausage, the game has changed, whether we like it or not.

Think we need to drop a few cubic tonnes of ice on the Atlantic, theres your problem, its stronger!!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like we might have to throw the towel in on any decent cold spell to end winter.

The UKMO couldn’t even verify at T96 hrs this morning and the GFS brings back a rampant PV in by day 8.

Even by some of the easterly debacles this one given the biggest zonal reversal in history re the strat looks like currently delivering zip.

Although the models have been very jumpy they now seemed to have jumped onto the worst solution.

Barring some miracle on the ECM it looks like the end of the road for this winter.

Can't argue with that Nick. Quite extraordinary. 

[Sneachtastorm]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like we might have to throw the towel in on any decent cold spell to end winter.

The UKMO couldn’t even verify at T96 hrs this morning and the GFS brings back a rampant PV in by day 8.

Even by some of the easterly debacles this one given the biggest zonal reversal in history re the strat looks like currently delivering zip.

Although the models have been very jumpy they now seemed to have jumped onto the worst solution.

Barring some miracle on the ECM it looks like the end of the road for this winter.

Agree Nick. The irony is this  SSW may have even made us milder by getting rid of the constant pm shots from the West and North West. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by Sneachtastorm

[DOdo]

Patience is a virtue

[cobbett]

I expect an emergency update to this afternoons met outlook forecast then 

[nick sussex]

We already had the QTR which got put back , then now the next one imploded.

We don’t have weeks to sit around waiting for decent synoptics.

The longer this goes in the more exceptional the synoptics have to be to deliver. There’s only so much cold you can get with the fast increasing solar energy into March.

[jvenge]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeters LRF producer right now...

To be fair. People are wetting themselves over day 16 to 30 guidance. Ergo, MetO likely going by glosea and maybe in part EPS 46. Checking other shorter range models and their own every so often to make sure its not a million miles away.

 

[Danielvn]

4 minutes ago, sausage said:

what a joke all this ssw has been. the models just refuse to give us any belting cold weather with much snow. winter running out fast now. feel totally deflated!! gosh folks must have been lucky in the past to see such big snow events! i really thought this was going to be something special!!

How is it a joke? The weather does what the weather does and to have any expectations of it is foolish to say the least. People need to stop being so emotional about this, regardless of how you think or feel the weather will do what the weather does.

[mulzy]

8 minutes ago, DOdo said:

Patience is a virtue

Indeed it is.  I am now looking at the long range CFS December 2018 charts (does it go out that far?).  Maybe, just maybe we might have a little lying snow then!

Edited February 15, 2018 by mulzy